1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFC 215 - Johnson vs. Borg - Alberta, Canada

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Card, Jul 26, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. quincy k Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2016
    Messages:
    3,653
    Likes Received:
    0
    yes it was. but that does not necessarily mean that its going to happen again. it probably changed the direction of the fight but imo the outcome wouldve been the same as i think larkin is one of the best strikers at 170.

    diaz was never a top level 170 and both he and cerrone have the frames to go up in weight. also, 155 cowboys game was based on his skillset whereas lw rdas game was based on overpowering guys backed by his granite chin and cardio.

    im admittedly biased as i look to fade guys moving up in weight both in boxing and mma who mostly relied on power and punch resistance as opposed to skill and rda to me fits into this category.

    hes a really small guy, a big 170 like gastelum woud just walk him down
     
  2. t6p Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    3,120
    Likes Received:
    93
    I agree with what you're saying about RDA, but I just don't know if Magny is the guy to expose him. IMO Magny is a bit overrated based on some wins against guys who are a shell of what they once were/questionable decisions. I don't believe that RDA is the same guy he was a few years back, but I do think he's got something left in the tank. Still, Magny has put together an 11-2 record in the UFC since 2014 so I'm not writing him off here by any means.

    Also, my point about the Larkin fight was that when the injury in caused by a strike from your opponent, it can't just be written off. He didn't come into the fight with an injury, he was getting lit up from the opening bell.

    I believe that RDA is better than Magny everywhere. Magny doesn't respond well to pressure and I don't think he has the power to prevent RDA from coming forward. Will Magny's size advantage be too much to overcome? Maybe, but I'm thinking not. I think RDA will be able to do enough to win 2 rounds at least. At -210 now, I'm not seeing much value left on RDA, but I do favor him here and I like the -150 price that got.
     
  3. quincy k Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2016
    Messages:
    3,653
    Likes Received:
    0
    the 155 5'7" rda is nowhere near a 170 larkin who has a dominant win over lawler at 185 before robbies run at 170. i think the size and reach of magny should be an equalizer here.

    i just cant get over this little guy, who really doenst have one punch power, imposing his will on guys that are naturally a weight class bigger than him.
     
  4. t6p Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    3,120
    Likes Received:
    93
    You may be right, we'll see. I wasn't comparing RDA to Larkin though, I was pointing out that Magny was dominated in the Larkin fight and the injury wasn't an excuse since it occurred due to Larkin's leg kicks.

    I don't think RDA is going to have a problem getting inside and negating Magny's reach advantage but I could be wrong.
     
  5. Tebowned Boise Dime.

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2012
    Messages:
    10,262
    Likes Received:
    0
  6. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2016
    Messages:
    1,892
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sweden
    RDA is 1.53 now and that's too low for me, I'll just play his dec line since I'll be very surprised if he stops Magny.
     
  7. streetSub101 White Belt

    Joined:
    May 18, 2017
    Messages:
    98
    Likes Received:
    0
    Dos Santos is out USADA
     
  8. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    philly
    fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck. i was liking my +300 etc.
     
  9. rille31 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2012
    Messages:
    4,197
    Likes Received:
    323
    Location:
    sweden
    [​IMG]

    Jds is slowly turning into glover teixeira

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Sapp Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2017
    Messages:
    12,057
    Likes Received:
    0
    Fuck, I thought Ngannou was going to be exposed.
     
  11. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2017
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    460
    Fuck usada, they ruined SO many fights already
     
  12. Agent Mulder Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2015
    Messages:
    5,126
    Likes Received:
    0
    Worse thing is that it will most likely end up being some bs supplement that has zero impact on performance like 99% of the time someone gets "caught" by USADA.
     
  13. pytycrys Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2016
    Messages:
    1,504
    Likes Received:
    0
    Man, it gets to the point that it feels stupid.
    Everyone is doing some sort of forbidden substance, it's just who gets caught and who does not.
     
  14. Agent Mulder Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2015
    Messages:
    5,126
    Likes Received:
    0
    The substance was hydrochlorothiazide which is a diuretic and can be used as an masking agent. Doesn't make much sense for a HW who doesn't cut weight to use it for cutting weight so...
     
  15. Agent Mulder Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2015
    Messages:
    5,126
    Likes Received:
    0
  16. Thunderflash500 Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2012
    Messages:
    11,122
    Likes Received:
    0
    I bet $100 on Magny. I'm not a believer in fighters moving up. Rda is a great fighter but is looking at like a 10in reach disadvantage. Magny ain't great, but fairly technical. I could easily see him winning a decision and he's a fairly large underdog.

    And just a point on moving up. Look at cowboy. Everyone says he looks great. Why? Before he was fighting for belts. Now he's nowhere near a shot and losing. Is he a shit fighter? No, he's fantastic. But moving up is extremely hard. The competition shoots up. Now cowboy in particular could actually grow into it given his physical build. Rda is to small for the division and will never grow into it.
     
  17. AxeMurderer Orange Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    471
    Likes Received:
    0
    Does anyone think money will come in on nunes? I already have a good deal on shev at -115 but was hopeful to get some more at + odds, but starting to think she s odds will just get worse.
     
  18. Social Distance Warrior Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2012
    Messages:
    45,823
    Likes Received:
    21,806
    Anyone else on Gilbert Melendez? Why is he the slight underdog?
     
  19. NorthernLights Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2017
    Messages:
    873
    Likes Received:
    24
    I suppose you don't believe in fighters moving down either since most fighters don't seem to improve their record by moving up OR down in weight. I read a comparison and the post weight change winning percentage drops about 5 % on average for fighters who change weight classes but I think stats can be deceiving. I think it all comes down to the individual fighter and his or hers reason for making the change. If a declining fighter chooses to move up or down in an attempt to revive his career and ends up losing, is it because of the decline in speed, mental aspects etc that was already happening or was it because of the move? It's hard to know when to blame the move for their failures when they lose or credit the move for their success when they win, it just seems like an oversimplification to say that you don't believe in fighters moving up.

    https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/8/5/9100525/ufc-fighters-little-success-changing-weight-classes-mma

    I like RDA here and I think you're making way too big a deal out of Magnys reach advantage.
     
  20. chemmy Green Belt

    Joined:
    May 9, 2002
    Messages:
    1,324
    Likes Received:
    180
    Location:
    Canada
    My complete guess is that it stays pretty much where it is or maybe even shifts a little bit towards Shevchenko. The line was close to the same on fight day last time around and I have to think that Nunes backing out of that one wont do anything to instill confidence in bettors.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.