UFC 215 - Johnson vs. Borg - Alberta, Canada

[pytycrys]

Ilir Latifi (12-5 MMA; 5-3 UFC)
-73" reach
-Training at All-stars in Sweden with Gus, Manuwa et comp.
-Two time national wrestling champion
-Strong AF ( Cormier said he's the strongest guy he ever trained with )
-susceptible to leg kicks
-One punch KO power, good hands

vs Jan Blachowicz (19-7 MMA; 2-4 UFC) (L - R1 - KO)
-5" reach disadvantage for Latifi
-Latifi had some moments but got caught with a vicious body kick that led to the TKO.

vs Hans Stringer (22-8 MMA; 1-2 UFC) (W - R1 - KO)
-same reach for both of them, even if Hans had 5" height advantage
-Big punch KO for Latifi

vs Sean O'Connell (17-9 MMA; 2-5 UFC) (W - R1 - TKO)
-half a inch reach advantage for O'Connell
-Again, one punch KO for Latifi

vs Gian Villante (15-9 MMA; 5-6 UFC) (W - DEC)
-2.5" reach disadvantage for Latifi
-R1 pretty close, Villante did a great job stopping TDs, Latifi ate some leg kicks
-R2 Latifi gets a TD from a supplex (made Villante look like a 120lbs girl), Villante again working the leg kicks, Latifi probably edged it with another TD at the end of the round
-R3 Latifi landed some big punches, got a TD as well, clear round for him

vs Ryan Bader ( 23-5 MMA; 15-5 UFC) (L - R2 - KO)
-half a inch reach advantage for Bader
-both of them GREAT wrestling credentials
-R1 to Latifi, Latifi threw some bombs, almost finished Bader in the last 10 seconds
-R2 - Latifi kinda edged the round before he took that knee KO. Pretty fluke win, Latifi was ahead in the fight. Anyway, violent KO.


Tyson Pedro (6-0 MMA; 2-0 UFC)
-79" reach
-Black belt in Japanese Jiu Jitsu, Kempo Karate and Brown belt in BJJ
-Training at Lions High performance centre, but got some training sessions at Jackson-wink as well
-chinny, hittable

vs Khalil Rountree (6-2 MMA; 2-2 UFC) (W - R1 - SUB , RNC)
-2.5" advantage for Pedro
-Almost KOd in the first minute by a punch from Khalil, survived by getting Khalil on the ground
-Got the RNC late in R1 after Rountree gave his back

vs Paul Craig (9-2 MMA; 1-2 UFC) (W - R1 - TKO)
-3" reach advantage for Pedro
-Pedro clipped Craig with some punches and knees then finished him

////////////////////////////

TLDR / Conclusions

-Pedro will come with 6" reach advantage
-I'm not SURE if Latifi will look as good as before physically due to some photos on his instagram
-Latifi's kryptonites are leg kicks and TDD. Pedro does not have vicious leg kicks and his TDD is yet to be tested against a high level wrestler.

If this fight goes standing, Pedro's chin will not hold up with Latifi's bombs, it would only take one to KO him.
If this fight goes on the ground, well, I don't see how Pedro would get Latifi down, considering his credentials and his 100% TDD.

My bet for this fights is 3u on Latifi @ 1.85 / -117.

 

[quincy k]

Pedro seems to hang out in the clinch a lot, which I think is a very poor decision against Latifi. Rountree could and should have finished Pedro off if he hadn't fucked up, and even Craig landed some good shots.

Latifi @ 1.8 is a rare betting opportunity in my book. It's almost as bad as Lamas being an underdog to Knight for no particular reason.

unproven in a three round fight never getting out of the first round

 

[MFCharon]

@ 'everybody who reacted on my post about placing more than 10+ bet per event': thank you for your comments

The more bets the more ability to take advantage of market inconsistency and bookie mistakes.

@Ballsaque your comment assumes bookies makes a lot of mistakes and that's my whole point. I can't believe that's true.

Anyhow, I still continue with max 2 bets per event

(and for now I'm aiming Latifi and Melendez, but the last one I'll probably pass)

 

[quincy k]

Rountree is a much better striker than Latifi IMO. Plus the last time we've seen Latifi was him getting kneed into oblivion by Bader, who knows how he will look after that.

imo, much better to suffer a one-punch type ko than sustained ko punishment ala jds/cain. not even a question psychologically or physically.

latifi also took a year off whereas bisping only rested four months post hendo.

 

[wack3d]

Ilir Latifi (12-5 MMA; 5-3 UFC)
-73" reach
-Training at All-stars in Sweden with Gus, Manuwa et comp.
-Two time national wrestling champion
-Strong AF ( Cormier said he's the strongest guy he ever trained with )
-susceptible to leg kicks
-One punch KO power, good hands

vs Jan Blachowicz (19-7 MMA; 2-4 UFC) (L - R1 - KO)
-5" reach disadvantage for Latifi
-Latifi had some moments but got caught with a vicious body kick that led to the TKO.

vs Hans Stringer (22-8 MMA; 1-2 UFC) (W - R1 - KO)
-same reach for both of them, even if Hans had 5" height advantage
-Big punch KO for Latifi

vs Sean O'Connell (17-9 MMA; 2-5 UFC) (W - R1 - TKO)
-half a inch reach advantage for O'Connell
-Again, one punch KO for Latifi

vs Gian Villante (15-9 MMA; 5-6 UFC) (W - DEC)
-2.5" reach disadvantage for Latifi
-R1 pretty close, Villante did a great job stopping TDs, Latifi ate some leg kicks
-R2 Latifi gets a TD from a supplex (made Villante look like a 120lbs girl), Villante again working the leg kicks, Latifi probably edged it with another TD at the end of the round
-R3 Latifi landed some big punches, got a TD as well, clear round for him

vs Ryan Bader ( 23-5 MMA; 15-5 UFC) (L - R2 - KO)
-half a inch reach advantage for Bader
-both of them GREAT wrestling credentials
-R1 to Latifi, Latifi threw some bombs, almost finished Bader in the last 10 seconds
-R2 - Latifi kinda edged the round before he took that knee KO. Pretty fluke win, Latifi was ahead in the fight. Anyway, violent KO.


Tyson Pedro (6-0 MMA; 2-0 UFC)
-79" reach
-Black belt in Japanese Jiu Jitsu, Kempo Karate and Brown belt in BJJ
-Training at Lions High performance centre, but got some training sessions at Jackson-wink as well
-chinny, hittable

vs Khalil Rountree (6-2 MMA; 2-2 UFC) (W - R1 - SUB , RNC)
-2.5" advantage for Pedro
-Almost KOd in the first minute by a punch from Khalil, survived by getting Khalil on the ground
-Got the RNC late in R1 after Rountree gave his back

vs Paul Craig (9-2 MMA; 1-2 UFC) (W - R1 - TKO)
-3" reach advantage for Pedro
-Pedro clipped Craig with some punches and knees then finished him

////////////////////////////

TLDR / Conclusions

-Pedro will come with 6" reach advantage
-I'm not SURE if Latifi will look as good as before physically due to some photos on his instagram
-Latifi's kryptonites are leg kicks and TDD. Pedro does not have vicious leg kicks and his TDD is yet to be tested against a high level wrestler.

If this fight goes standing, Pedro's chin will not hold up with Latifi's bombs, it would only take one to KO him.
If this fight goes on the ground, well, I don't see how Pedro would get Latifi down, considering his credentials and his 100% TDD.

My bet for this fights is 3u on Latifi @ 1.85 / -117.

not sure how you can say Pedro is chinny with any confidence? he got caught with a huge left that put him on his ass but he did not look rocked at all he instantly bounced right back up and took Khalil down

 

[AmericanBeauty]

Pedro seems to hang out in the clinch a lot, which I think is a very poor decision against Latifi. Rountree could and should have finished Pedro off if he hadn't fucked up, and even Craig landed some good shots.

Latifi @ 1.8 is a rare betting opportunity in my book. It's almost as bad as Lamas being an underdog to Knight for no particular reason.

Latifi vs Pedro
Latifi has a weak body and a weak chin...he got tkoed by jan blankowicz with a kick to the body.
Giant height and reach disadvantage for the albanian.
Pedro wins for sure but i don't if by dec or tko.
Ilir is a good wrestler and submitting him will be difficult....
I see it going over 1.5. Ilir will watch out after his last near death...and pedro is green.

 

[Ballsaque]

@ 'everybody who reacted on my post about placing more than 10+ bet per event': thank you for your comments



@Ballsaque your comment assumes bookies makes a lot of mistakes and that's my whole point. I can't believe that's true.

Anyhow, I still continue with max 2 bets per event

(and for now I'm aiming Latifi and Melendez, but the last one I'll probably pass)

There's not really anything to not believe, you see it every single event. Literally. Every single one.

And even if you believe the bookies are somehow incapable of making more than 2 mistakes pr event the lines can move til they become a 'mistake'

If you have found a system that works for you, more power too you. Requires less time commited to cap fights as well, but not believe that bookies make PLENTY of mistakes, is just down right incorrect.

 

[MFCharon]

You're right about the fact that lines can become mistakes. And as I said before, most people don't agree with me thus I should be generally 'wrong'.

 

[Slohog]

So my better half is on vacation with her mother and I've finally had some time to watch a bit of tape. Nothing to much, but I'll put in my two cents.

Latifi should really win vs Tyson Pedro guy. He looked decent against Bader before running into a knee, he probably has the clear wrestling edge over some Aussie, fairly clear grappling edge (big wrestler who's been doing sub wrestling for 10+ years with his 3rd degree black belt brother vs a purple from Australia) and a bit more power. Pedro may or may not take a punch better, is younger etc and has a bunch of that stuff going for him but I just think this is a big step up for him and a step down for Latifi. Either way I think someone is getting knocked the fuck out or possibly submitted, wish the under had a better price.

I expected to be huge on Mcmann, she's in her prime as far as I'm concerned and on a little winning streak. That said Vieria looks to improve very fast, is big and fast and with high output and what looks like decent wrestling. Unless Mcmann takes her down early and often I think this might be an upset. Also a bit concerned about how she looked between rounds last fight, seemed fairly concerned about getting hit in the face and while she reacted good round 2 I think the Brazilian chick might be nastier.

 

[iGnP]

There's not really anything to not believe, you see it every single event. Literally. Every single one.

And even if you believe the bookies are somehow incapable of making more than 2 mistakes pr event the lines can move til they become a 'mistake'

If you have found a system that works for you, more power too you. Requires less time commited to cap fights as well, but not believe that bookies make PLENTY of mistakes, is just down right incorrect.

What do you consider a mistake? If a +300 dog wins, it's not necessarily mispriced odds

 

[chemmy]

Thinking about a big bet on the o4.5 on the main event. I guess main concern is that Borg blows his load early and then loses in r3 or r4 but I really think this hits the cards... thoughts?

-110 just seems very attractive for the over in a MM fight.

I played the opposite. He has scored finishes in 6 of his last 9 fights, so 66% of those ended ITD, whereas that -110 line reflects a little less than 53%. Of course it's just a statistic (plus one of those finishes was after the 4.5 round mark), but MM isn't exactly a point fighter these days. He's a decent finisher. I think if he pushes for the finish on Saturday it'll come.

 

[quincy k]

Latifi vs Pedro
Latifi has a weak body and a weak chin...he got tkoed by jan blankowicz with a kick to the body.
Giant height and reach disadvantage for the albanian.
Pedro wins for sure but i don't if by dec or tko.
Ilir is a good wrestler and submitting him will be difficult....
I see it going over 1.5. Ilir will watch out after his last near death...and pedro is green.

unless you have actually seen pedro go three hard rounds in sparring with a ranked ufc fighter there is no way to say that tyson wins for sure.

he could gas badly in the second round and get ktfo cold.

 

[Sham5916910]

So my better half is on vacation with her mother and I've finally had some time to watch a bit of tape. Nothing to much, but I'll put in my two cents.

Latifi should really win vs Tyson Pedro guy. He looked decent against Bader before running into a knee, he probably has the clear wrestling edge over some Aussie, fairly clear grappling edge (big wrestler who's been doing sub wrestling for 10+ years with his 3rd degree black belt brother vs a purple from Australia) and a bit more power. Pedro may or may not take a punch better, is younger etc and has a bunch of that stuff going for him but I just think this is a big step up for him and a step down for Latifi. Either way I think someone is getting knocked the fuck out or possibly submitted, wish the under had a better price.

I expected to be huge on Mcmann, she's in her prime as far as I'm concerned and on a little winning streak. That said Vieria looks to improve very fast, is big and fast and with high output and what looks like decent wrestling. Unless Mcmann takes her down early and often I think this might be an upset. Also a bit concerned about how she looked between rounds last fight, seemed fairly concerned about getting hit in the face and while she reacted good round 2 I think the Brazilian chick might be nastier.

Agree completely re McMann even to the point i expected to be huge on her prior to tape.

 

[thewiggo]

Im on Ketlen, she looked good against AES and think she'll improve enough to tough it out vs McManns wrestling

 

[Joseph Budden]

Im on Ketlen, she looked good against AES and think she'll improve enough to tough it out vs McManns wrestling

Tough what out? Shes not gonna take McMann down, so you see her defending tds for 15 min and outstriking McMann?

McMann's price is on point

EDIT damn I see more people for whatever reason think Ketlen is a solid dog. Wtf?! Just no.

 

[Ballsaque]

What do you consider a mistake? If a +300 dog wins, it's not necessarily mispriced odds

Obviously not, but that depends on how the fight looks. But a mistake is usually in the props or over/unders I find. Insanely difficult to balance all these to be correct, and even if you manage them, they will get bet up/down and create openings for good value bets.

 

[Sham5916910]

Tough what out? Shes not gonna take McMann down, so you see her defending tds for 15 min and outstriking McMann?

McMann's price is on point

EDIT damn I see more people for whatever reason think Ketlen is a solid dog. Wtf?! Just no.

Ketlan could have great tdd we just don't know. She's from Nova who are notorious for their excellent tdd. She definitely has an adv standing and McMann hates being hit. No chance i bet her against someone who MIGHT have solid tdd and who is a better striker than her.

 

[AxeMurderer]

I am on Mcmann. Ketlan MIGHT have good tdd but would that be even good enough to stop Sara's takedowns? I will go with the proven and if she proves me wrong then I will gladly lose my money and tip my hat to her.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Ketlan could have great tdd we just don't know. She's from Nova who are notorious for their excellent tdd. She definitely has an adv standing and McMann hates being hit. No chance i bet her against someone who MIGHT have solid tdd and who is a better striker than her.

She looked good vs AES who is a complete bum, but her wrestling isn't gonna take the leaps to get to McMann's wrestling. There is no way her defensive wrestling is leagues above her offensive wrestling, and her offensive wrestling technique is pretty scrub level. All strength, no technique. Thats not gonna work here, not even once. Idk what to make of thinking Veira will have stand up edge too. McMann's hands are getting sharper, her footwork is OK.

Idk i'm only half way through tape watch on this fight cause its fucking dreadful, but seems like a solid chance McMann is better in every way. Not gonna touch a price like +180 ever when that seems probable.

 

[EzFlyer]

not sure how you can say Pedro is chinny with any confidence? he got caught with a huge left that put him on his ass but he did not look rocked at all he instantly bounced right back up and took Khalil down

Ya. I wouldn't call Pedro chinny. Rountree could stun Godzilla with a huge left.

But I'm up to 2u on latifi, btw. I really think it's his fight to lose; I don't see Pedro taking him down