UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

Status
Not open for further replies.
The Dunham line is way off here. I mentioned this prior to the Glenn/Tucker fight. He is very underrated. I really don't think Dariush is better than Dunham anywhere besides in straight BJJ.

Line is wacky but Beneil is also a southpaw, better striking(dunham probably has the better jab), he'll match wrestling imo, and better BJJ. Dunham will have the cardio advantage for sure and chin probably.
 
I am a simple man when i see a chechen fighter like Magomed Bibulatov, i take him immediatly.
 
Dariush is certainly the better kicker. I imagine his gameplan is gonna be to stay at kicking range and try to outpoint Dunham.

Dunham's volume and pressure is way too high for Dariush to play the point game IMO. Dariush's best bet is to land something and put Dunham away when he is hurt.
 
Dunham's volume and pressure is way too high for Dariush to play the point game IMO. Dariush's best bet is to land something and put Dunham away when he is hurt.
Leg kicks are going to be key for Dariush to stop Dunhams pressure. I think it's hard to say if he will be successful or not therefor it's a no bet for me at current odds.
 
Dunham IMO is the type of fighter that can really give Dariush problems. If Evan can keep good pressure on without getting cracked I think he can really wear on Dariush. But Evan is gonna have to come forward and probably walk through some fire
 
I don't get it, were MMA betting tips also all over Andrade +250 last week?

Could I have called that one any better?

I honestly am not sure anyone remembers that you were on her. Except maybe a few dudes who were against you.

Was actually a really good call though
 
Can you elaborate? BC I don't get what makes Ferguson better than Lee.

Ferg has 2 real wins including a narrow decision vs RDA who was getting rekt by weight cuts and quit LW after, and against Edson Barboza who had Ferguson in trouble in round 1.

He also was nearly finished by Lando Vannatta, beat Danny Castillo by a hair, likely lost round 1 to Abel Trujillo, edged out Yves Edwards. He has some really close close calls vs mediocre competition.

Also he's 33 and more likely to decline than improve at this point. He is really vulnerable for a #2 fighter on 9 fight streak.

Meanwhile Lee is 25 and has an elite reach, elite strength, great athleticism, and has already put together a really impressive UFC resume. Ferguson has never fought an opponent with Lee's physical profile or wrestling ability. Lee poses a unique challenge for a guy who has struggled against turds in the past.

So why do people think Ferg is a good bet? I don't see it.
Narrow decision? He clearly beat RDA

Ferg is better than Lee at everything. Lee's only chance is a back take to RNC. If RDA is having zero success wrestling cause of improvements Ferg has made, its likely Kevin Lee isn't gonna hug for 3 rounds. I'll take my chances on the guy who is better in every way and only has one path to losing.
 
The Dunham line is way off here. I mentioned this prior to the Glenn/Tucker fight. He is very underrated. I really don't think Dariush is better than Dunham anywhere besides in straight BJJ.

He's a better striker, easily. Huge body kicks and waaaay more power in his hands

Dunham edge is cardio if anything.. he's outclassed on the feet and on the ground IMO
 
Even though this fight is now off, lazy analysis like this can't go unchecked



That's the problem here, the rankings really do reflect the ability....that's why its relevant to bring them up. Namajunas absolutely looks like a brown belt in the cage and Van Zant looks like a low level blue at best.




Honestly can't tell if you're trolling, but...

Her "domination" over Herrig involved Van Zant going for the WMMA throw off the bat, getting her back taken, mounted and nearly armbarred within 90 seconds of the 1st. The only time she got the upper hand in the grappling was when Herrig gassed out after a round.

Her "domination" over Curran had her get hit with the WMMA throw a minute in and put on her back the rest of the round. Curran also hit her with the WMMA throw and a trip again in round 2.

Her "domination" over Chambers included a couple failed attempts at the WMMA throw before kneeing her in the eye and choking her when she fell down. Same thing with Curran above except strikes to finish after the knee.

Mind you those last 2 have a combined record of 9-8.

If you watch PVZ's fights you will see she is a bad grappler who makes big mistakes while scrambling wildly.




Unless Eye got rocked with a big shot, I doubt it. Plus do you really expect a natural 125er to be taking down fighters like McMann, Pena, and Tate who are all shredded at 135 and primarily grapplers? Not being able to take down fighters like that doesn't mean you can't take down a strawweight in PVZ who routinely goes down to a simple head and arm throw and then gets stuck there.



See above. It matters more often than not (ie: on average you're not going to catch blue belt-level grapplers subbing brown belts). It's also easier to just reference belts in this situation because they match up pretty well with the fighters actual ability unlike someone like Jon Jones who giggles about having a white belt but has been grappling for over 15 years and was a D1-quality wrestler.

Namajunas is great and showed how bad the skill gap is between her and PVZ, but we don't know much about Waterson at 115 aside from a can in Magana and a PVZ that fell into the same old trap as usual.

Bottom line: there is nothing logical on paper to lead someone to believe PVZ has a grappling advantage over a larger opponent with more experience. If some stupid shit happened and Eye got subbed with an imanari roll to darce then so be it, but prefight analysis doesn't make sense to give the edge to PVZ in the grappling.

But yeah its off so who cares
Yes she tapped Penne who is a black belt and Waterson began fighting in 2007. On average it takes a 1-2 years to get a blue belt.

Anyone that has watched her fight that has a simple understanding of grappling can tell that she is better than a blue belt.

Just a quick correction. Michelle Waterson was promoted from Blue to Purple belt in Gracie Barra BJJ this year. She was only a White belt when she submitted the Checkmat Brown belt Jessica Penne in 2013. Of course that belt was bullshit because she had been training MMA submission grappling at Jackson's for 7 years at that point.

According to her instructor, Rafael Barata De Freitas, Michelle submits Brown and Black belts regularly. Even her Purple belt is probably a little bit misleading.
 
He's a better striker, easily. Huge body kicks and waaaay more power in his hands

Dunham edge is cardio if anything.. he's outclassed on the feet and on the ground IMO

Dunham leaves a lot to be desired defensively, but I believe he's better with his hands offensively for sure. I think Dunham is without a doubt a better wrestler too.

Dariush to me is a lesser version of RDA. I think people forget that literally every single play by play had the Dunham/RDA fight scored for Dunham. I think Dunham has all the attributes to give Dariush a lot of trouble. To me, at +200 its a no brainer.
 
I think Dariush's biggest weapon is his fight IQ. I do think he has the advantage here in most areas, but I'd take him against any of the top 155ers with the right odds because of his ability to gameplan and execute.

Against someone like Dunham who he does have a skills advantage over, I feel like it'd take something flukey to lose. I think the line is accurate
 
Narrow decision? He clearly beat RDA

Ferg is better than Lee at everything. Lee's only chance is a back take to RNC. If RDA is having zero success wrestling cause of improvements Ferg has made, its likely Kevin Lee isn't gonna hug for 3 rounds. I'll take my chances on the guy who is better in every way and only has one path to losing.

RDA may have been not his 100% self bc of extreme weight cutting. His prior fight was Alvarez's only really strong W and he moved up to 170 after Ferg.

It's good Ferg stuffed all of RDA's takedowns, but 48-47 is just one successful takedown away from 47-48. Lee is younger with better physical tools than RDA, and Ferg isn't Woodley.

Also Ferg leaves himself open to strikes-- if Lee can knock him down with a shot he may be able to follow him to the ground and get a submission.

Lee's wrestling game is definitely better and he is stronger + more athletic. He is quickly closing the gap on strikes bc he's super young and still improving, and Ferg isn't an elite striker bc he lets himself get hit.
 
Dunham's nearly 36 and has been pretty inactive. He's also had a run of real slow fighters to look really good against. The RDA fight was over 4 years ago and that was before RDA went on his mad blitz. After the RDA fight he got destroyed by Cowboy and Barboza. I haven't watched tape yet but i defo think the line's about right. What is interesting tho is that this is southpaw vs southpaw that could create some problems for Dariush he loves his body kick and it's not there against Dunham.
 
RDA may have been not his 100% self bc of extreme weight cutting. His prior fight was Alvarez's only really strong W and he moved up to 170 after Ferg.

It's good Ferg stuffed all of RDA's takedowns, but 48-47 is just one successful takedown away from 47-48. Lee is younger with better physical tools than RDA, and Ferg isn't Woodley.

Also Ferg leaves himself open to strikes-- if Lee can knock him down with a shot he may be able to follow him to the ground and get a submission.

Lee's wrestling game is definitely better and he is stronger + more athletic. He is quickly closing the gap on strikes bc he's super young and still improving, and Ferg isn't an elite striker bc he lets himself get hit.

Lee is not knocking him down with a strike. Ferg's chin is granite and Lee's standup fuckin sucks. You are living in dreamland if you think that.
 
Can you elaborate? BC I don't get what makes Ferguson better than Lee.

Ferg has 2 real wins including a narrow decision vs RDA who was getting rekt by weight cuts and quit LW after, and against Edson Barboza who had Ferguson in trouble in round 1.

He also was nearly finished by Lando Vannatta, beat Danny Castillo by a hair, likely lost round 1 to Abel Trujillo, edged out Yves Edwards. He has some really close close calls vs mediocre competition.

Also he's 33 and more likely to decline than improve at this point. He is really vulnerable for a #2 fighter on 9 fight streak.

Meanwhile Lee is 25 and has an elite reach, elite strength, great athleticism, and has already put together a really impressive UFC resume. Ferguson has never fought an opponent with Lee's physical profile or wrestling ability. Lee poses a unique challenge for a guy who has struggled against turds in the past.

So why do people think Ferg is a good bet? I don't see it.


I'm surprised no one has mentioned how good Ferguson's chin is. He probably has the one of the best chins in the UFC right now, or top 3 at least. He has eaten the best shots of guy after guy and just walked through them or shots that normally knock people out, he survives This is how he breaks down his opponents mentally. Barboza hit him with some big hooks right on his chin and he just walked through them like they were nothing, that Landon Vannata head kick knocks most people out.

I don't see Lee knocking him out, his only real path to victory is a RNC off some sort of crazy after taking his back. Over 5 rounds, because Ferguson trusts his chin, he is always in your face and putting pressure on you and his cardio is top notch too and this is how he breaks his opponents down, I don't think Lee can handle it to win a decision in a striking war.
 
The X factor is obviously Dariush coming back from a BRUTAL knockout. I never like betting a decent fav coming off a loss like that.
 
Lee is not knocking him down with a strike. Ferg's chin is granite and Lee's standup fuckin sucks. You are living in dreamland if you think that.

It's how Lee beat Trinaldo who has never been KO'd

Ferguson was almost finished by Lando Vannata and Lee's striking isn't THAT bad. Lee will never KO him, but one good strike that segues to the ground is possible.

He has been r1 submitted by a scrub in the past, I don't think he's the invincible monster that you guys are making him out to be.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top