UFC 222 - Edgar vs Ortega - Vegas

[Oblivian]

I disagree, but not because he's not capable of it. I just think he's a smart guy that's gonna take the path of least resistance.

That said, you could be right if Ortega is able to close the distance and pull guard. Then yeah, we could see Frankie show how good he can be with top control. I just don't think Frankie is going to initiate any grappling exchanges because...well...he won't need to.

Honestly against Frankie, I think Ortega standing is just as dangerous as his grappling. Ortega throws with bad intentions at times and he can be hit. A lot of guys have done fine grappling with him for extended periods and I think Frankie's top game is pretty damn solid.

 

[t6p]

Munhoz is there to be punched in the face. Dodson due for a walk-off KO1.

I don't agree at all and I think it's highly unlikely. Dodson has turned into the definition of point fighter and he's not carried nearly the same power with him to BW. Five of his last six have gone to decision and his one stoppage in the last nearly 4 years was against a beyond past it Gamburyan. He's constantly looking to score and get out of range.

Meanwhile, Munhoz has a iron chin and he's big for the division. Yes, he gets hit a lot but he's shown the ability to absorb everything thrown at him without issue. Also, this is the last fight on Dodson's contract so I expect he'll want to play it extra cautious.

Not to mention that Dodson was saved by the bell in his last fight when Moraes locked up that guillotine, Munhoz's bread and butter.

 

[thesharktank]

Im huge on Frankie, but for whatever reason, this is one of the few times I am worried about the size difference. Still, I think Ortega's only path to victory is a finish, something with no fighter has ever been able to accomplish. It is probably over said at this point, but Ortega pretty much hasn't won a round in the UFC on a scorecard. He either finishes the fight within those 5 minutes or goes to the corner down the round.

I think Frankie's most dominant area in this fight will be his top control. People do fine in Ortega's guard. I can almost picture a Palhares vs Belcher type scenario - everyone worried about Ortega's guard and ground game, except for Frankie, Ortega also believing that this is his best position to win the fight from, causing him to concentrate too much on the O instead of the D eating some big shots for it.

 

[wack3d]

 

[null]

I think that the many people in this thread who have said that the only way Oretega can win is by submission or by finish and that if it goes to a decision it surely will be a win for Frankie are simply mistaken. I think Ortega can win a decision here using his size, improved striking and threats of grabbing a submission to nullify Frankie's offense somewhat. I think Ortega can win rounds holding his own on the feet using his reach and knees at points even putting Frankie in grave danger when he clinches up with him on the feet or on the ground and potentially creating scrambles where he gets on Frankie's neck while standing or his back potentially. I think these three rounds could end up back & forth and debatable as a result.

 

[Obsidian Fracture]

I'm on Frankie here. I got stung hard when Ortega caught Cub, but I'm still trusting my reads from before that fight. Ortega is tough as nails and can catch a finish at any time, with subs and heavy hitting strikes. However, he is prone to getting hit and is slow on the feet. Frankie is the perfect guy to take advantage of those weaknesses.

I think Frankie uses his boxing, footwork and world glass grappling to outclass this guy. Sure there is a chance that Ortega grabs the sub or lands a heavy strike to finish and a (much smaller) one that he does this enough to win 2 out of 3 rounds with those skills, but I'm willing to bet against it.

If he beats Frankie, he is the top contender for sure.

 

[mkess101]

I think that the many people in this thread who have said that the only way Oretega can win is by submission or by finish and that if it goes to a decision it surely will be a win for Frankie are simply mistaken. I think Ortega can win a decision here using his size, improved striking and threats of grabbing a submission to nullify Frankie's offense somewhat. I think Ortega can win rounds holding his own on the feet using his reach and knees at points even putting Frankie in grave danger when he clinches up with him on the feet or on the ground and potentially creating scrambles where he gets on Frankie's neck while standing or his back potentially. I think these three rounds could end up back & forth and debatable as a result.

I think a lot of that will depend on how stationary and willing to engage Frankie is. I agree for sure, T City has improved his striking a ton. But he has yet to show he can cut off the cage against someone with footwork as brilliant as Frankie's. That said, there's times where Frankie has stood his ground and engaged in the pocket (Mendes fight comes to mind) and if he does that here, Ortega can have success. On the outside though, I don't think Ortega has figured out yet how to best utilize his reach, especially against someone with Frankie's movement and boxing. At some point he probably will, I just don't think he's there quite yet.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I think that the many people in this thread who have said that the only way Oretega can win is by submission or by finish and that if it goes to a decision it surely will be a win for Frankie are simply mistaken. I think Ortega can win a decision here using his size, improved striking and threats of grabbing a submission to nullify Frankie's offense somewhat. I think Ortega can win rounds holding his own on the feet using his reach and knees at points even putting Frankie in grave danger when he clinches up with him on the feet or on the ground and potentially creating scrambles where he gets on Frankie's neck while standing or his back potentially. I think these three rounds could end up back & forth and debatable as a result.

i dont agree at all but i hope your right.

 

[piglord]

What value ?
He is coming from 1 year lay off
He has a full time job
Blaydes destroyed his knee

The thing with Jordan having a baby soon can be motivating for him.

apparently his knee is pretty much healed.

i guess we're going to see in a few hours. i cap milstead as a slight dog, nowhere near the +250 i got.

 

[oliverinsix]

For what it's worth, I've seen Ortega's last two fights live and as a fan, some of the shots he ate made me nervous but his resolve and durability is a lot more pronounced in person

 

[SourPatchKid]

3 fight parlay:

-150 Edgar
-150 Dodson
+170 cat zingano
$150 to win $975

What y’all think?

 

[Card]

 

[chemmy]

3 fight parlay:

-150 Edgar
-150 Dodson
+170 cat zingano
$150 to win $975

What y’all think?

Parlay Dodson + Edgar if you love parlays, and play Zingano straight. Just my 2 cents.

 

[JBJISGOAT]

so far I really like:

Edgar - think he keeps this standing and point fights to a decision. If Ortega finishes Edgar I would be very very surprised. Plus 3 rounds. Big on Edgar for 3 units.

Souk - Malley is a sloppy striker/brawler that doesn’t hit hard and leaves gaps, souk only needs that one gap to finish this fight and I think he will find that at some point. Going to lay 3 units on souk depending on the odds.

AA - at +155 .5 units.

Small on Pedro and Caraway at plus odds…don’t like these as much as the others…

 

[iGnP]

confidence increase Dodson

 

[Gugabe]

Dodson failed to KO some of the most durable guys in the division. Munhoz doesn't have the defensive acuity or chin of a Lineker or a Moraes.

 

[piglord]

3 fight parlay:

-150 Edgar
-150 Dodson
+170 cat zingano
$150 to win $975

What y’all think?

parlaying cat zingano is completely nuts imo but best of luck.

 

[vkram]

Dodson failed to KO some of the most durable guys in the division. Munhoz doesn't have the defensive acuity or chin of a Lineker or a Moraes.

Munhoz is super tough and seems to have a solid chin but he does get hit a lot and likes to walk forward so Dodson will have openings.

 

[Shoulder]

Frankie by [email protected] is a nice play. 1.5U.

 

[Jamah]

LOL Cyborg sub r1 r2 r3 r4 r5 at +10000 / @101.00
Here we go again!