UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

[Stunna77]

I agree with a lot of this but actually in watching tape Khabib looks damn slick off his back. I was surprised when I went back, he had a tight triangle on Trujillo from the bottom and the round ending saved Abel.

I'm on Tony and if can end up on top I think that's obviously good for him. But he can't get lazy and sleep on Khabib's guard at all. Super underrated from the (albeit limited) tape we have.

Yeah that is the only fight I could really find with Khabib on his back and its Abel, so ya know...lol..

 

[Stunna77]

Why are you laughing? We DO have zero evidence. Who has Tony taken down that's even close to level of Khabib? Absolutely no one. You can say "Tony is a damn good wrestler" but fact is you have ZERO proof of him implementing offensive wrestling in MMA against a capable wrestler.

You are doing a shit load of assuming. You have literally nothing to go off of with your assumptions regarding Tony's ability to score tds or his intent to even try them.

Bruv, I didn't say Tony was gameplanning to take Khabib down. I made a very specific reference to the pressure Khabib brought in the Barboza fight and why I don't think he will be able to be so reckless here against Ferg. I then went even further and said "just things to consider".

 

[mkess101]

Yeah that is the only fight I could really find with Khabib on his back and its Abel, so ya know...lol..

Yeah for sure need to take into account who it was ha ha but just how Khabib moved and his fluidity surprised me. He's a legit grappler in any spot imo.

 

[Stunna77]

Yea, I mean if Stunna is right and Ferg does look to mix in a td or two to keep Khabib guessing, I would think he should look to stand back up pretty quickly. Like mkess said, from the little we've seen Khabib looks pretty slick off his back. I don't think we have any evidence of Ferg having a strong top game and I don't think it's worth the risk of getting swept.

Man I don't know, Tony thrives in scrambles, not sure why he wouldn't try to create them here as well. If he ever were to end up on top I would imagine he tries to dish out damage and let Khabib move under him to try to create an opportunity to take him to snapdown city.

 

[Stunna77]

Right. What you said is you have a belief Tony will take down Khabib if he pressures like the Barb fight. I was just pointing out why it might be a misguided belief, considering there is literally nothing to go off of to generate such a belief. Its actually the opposite for the reasons I've stated, and there is no reason to have any belief Tony can or will implement any offensive wrestling in this fight.

Not saying it WONT happen. Just saying, if were trying to gain an accurate analysis of how this could play out, theres no reason to consider that a possibility. Based on tape, the things weve seen which seem likely in that situation are Tony tries dicing him up with bows, using jabs and straight kicks to keep the pressure off, attacking the neck if Khabib drops his head, etc.

If Tony hits a reactive double, lands some GnP which leads to a scramble and jumps on a darce will you send nudes?

 

[Stunna77]

Only if when he doesn't you will send me some

10-1 nude odds?

 

[ChoKuRei]

How do you guys feel about Caceres/Lobov?

I know Caceres got dropped a few times by wang guan, but Lobov doesn’t seem near the level that wang is on. I don’t see Lobov and his small arms and no kicks getting the better of the striking exchanges. Caceres has much more dynamic movement and better grappling I think.

I see Caceres winning a decision or possibly subbing Lobov. Thoughts?

 

[AxeMurderer]

I love reading all these posts and I agree 100% nobody knows what is going to happen. I hope they both fight to their strengths and we see a classic. It’s going to be great to see if one of them can break the other. I am rooting for the eagle, but I just want to see a good fight.

 

[Stunna77]

How do you guys feel about Caceres/Lobov?

I know Caceres got dropped a few times by wang guan, but Lobov doesn’t seem near the level that wang is on. I don’t see Lobov and his small arms and no kicks getting the better of the striking exchanges. Caceres has much more dynamic movement and better grappling I think.

I see Caceres winning a decision or possibly subbing Lobov. Thoughts?

I like Caceres to use his length and movement to win the stand-up, just has to avoid lobov's power. I could see him mixing in some tds if lobov gets over aggressive, similar to what Fili did in their fight. However, it is Caceres and he's a flake, so I only went 1u at +110.

 

[Agent Mulder]

How do you guys feel about Caceres/Lobov?

I know Caceres got dropped a few times by wang guan, but Lobov doesn’t seem near the level that wang is on. I don’t see Lobov and his small arms and no kicks getting the better of the striking exchanges. Caceres has much more dynamic movement and better grappling I think.

I see Caceres winning a decision or possibly subbing Lobov. Thoughts?

I feel like Caceres has all the tools to win the fight 30-27 but it's hard to trust him. Did hit him at +100 though, think the current odds are accurate.

 

[mkess101]

Caceras=talented flake.

The most infuriating guys to bet on or against.

(I have 1.5u on him, and he will either make it look easy and I'll kick myself for not going bigger or he'll flake and get KO'd and I'll wonder why the hell I trusted him at all).

 

[iGnP]

Caceras=talented flake.

The most infuriating guys to bet on or against.

(I have 1.5u on him, and he will either make it look easy and I'll kick myself for not going bigger or he'll flake and get KO'd and I'll wonder why the hell I trusted him at all).

why is he a flake?

 

[mkess101]

why is he a flake?

There's fights where he refuses to use his reach (Faber first one that comes to mind) and fights where he has zero awareness of how he's doing and chooses to clown and showboat instead of fighting (Yair fight). There's times he forgets defense and leads with his chin (but other times where he shows competent striking defense).

It's not all the time obviously, but when he does, it's maddening.

 

[trident]

Consensus seems to be Khabib first half of fight, Tony for second half of fight.

 

[mkess101]

When is the last time you guys watched Khabib/Barboza?

I just did, and holy shit did I remember it wrong. If you haven't seen it lately, I recommend watching it again.

I had it in my mind that Khabib really beat Edson down for 15 minutes, but that's just not how it went. He beat him down the second half of round 1 but in terms of actual real damage that was when the majority of it happened. First half of round 1 was standing, second half was a beatdown. Round 2 Khabib took awhile to get the TD, then held Edson down and landed some gnp, but nothing hugely significant.

Round 3 is what I really, REALLY remembered wrong. About a minute of striking, nothing significant. Then Khabib pushes a broken and exhausted Edson against the cage (aided by Edson kind of just backing up into it). Khabib then holds him there, and twice tries to level change for TD's. Somehow even the corpse that was Edson at that point stuffs both attempts and spins off the cage (that whole sequence taking maybe 90 seconds). More striking with Edson throwing desperation spinning kicks and stuff. Khabib again pushes him against the cage with about 2 minutes left. This time does get the TD. Edson squirms and Khabib tries to hold him down and does for awhile, but lands nothing. With about 30 seconds left Edson is able to finall wriggle free and get back to his feet, where the last 20-30 seconds tick away with a bit more striking. I really thought Khabib put it on Edson in round 3 (even if Khabib did slow a little). But man, even though Khabib clearly won the round, it is an eye opener that he didn't have enough to get a broken version of Edson down the first 2 times he tried, and wasn't able to hold him down and do anything offensively when he finally did get the TD.

If Tony survives rounds 1 and 2 and is relatively fresh and we see the version of Khabib I just watched in round 3 of that fight, I think Khabib is in serious trouble. Tony will pour it on him and it will turn into a beatdown.

Maybe we see Khabib with more to offer, or somehow he manages to make Tony look as broken as Edson looked. But if not, I honestly don't see how Khabib even survives to see the final bell.

 

[Oblivian]

When is the last time you guys watched Khabib/Barboza?

I just did, and holy shit did I remember it wrong. If you haven't seen it lately, I recommend watching it again.

I had it in my mind that Khabib really beat Edson down for 15 minutes, but that's just not how it went. He beat him down the second half of round 1 but in terms of actual real damage that was when the majority of it happened. First half of round 1 was standing, second half was a beatdown. Round 2 Khabib took awhile to get the TD, then held Edson down and landed some gnp, but nothing hugely significant.

Round 3 is what I really, REALLY remembered wrong. About a minute of striking, nothing significant. Then Khabib pushes a broken and exhausted Edson against the cage (aided by Edson kind of just backing up into it). Khabib then holds him there, and twice tries to level change for TD's. Somehow even the corpse that was Edson at that point stuffs both attempts and spins off the cage (that whole sequence taking maybe 90 seconds). More striking with Edson throwing desperation spinning kicks and stuff. Khabib again pushes him against the cage with about 2 minutes left. This time does get the TD. Edson squirms and Khabib tries to hold him down and does for awhile, but lands nothing. With about 30 seconds left Edson is able to finall wriggle free and get back to his feet, where the last 20-30 seconds tick away with a bit more striking. I really thought Khabib put it on Edson in round 3 (even if Khabib did slow a little). But man, even though Khabib clearly won the round, it is an eye opener that he didn't have enough to get a broken version of Edson down the first 2 times he tried, and wasn't able to hold him down and do anything offensively when he finally did get the TD.

If Tony survives rounds 1 and 2 and is relatively fresh and we see the version of Khabib I just watched in round 3 of that fight, I think Khabib is in serious trouble. Tony will pour it on him and it will turn into a beatdown.

Maybe we see Khabib with more to offer, or somehow he manages to make Tony look as broken as Edson looked. But if not, I honestly don't see how Khabib even survives to see the final bell.

Rd 1 and Rd 2 were scored 10-8 by most people (all judges and most play by plays). Edson came out in Rd 3 with confidence somehow and really went for it. You have to put into perspective that Edson is known for being hard to takedown and very hard to hold down. Khabib only came into that fight opening -260 and sitting below -300 the majority of the time. To me, that was a great performance to where he looked to have far more value than the line indicated.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

It's a sign of a great fight when the hundreds of hours of conversation and studying about both combatants still has you guessing how it will play out. The eagle vs El Cucuy is one for the books. Out of curiosity is anyone playing anything on AES vs Rawlings? I don't have an interest in it myself I'm just curious what others thoughts are. -210 is way too expensive of a fade on Rawlings for me.

Edit* I forgot props arent out yet for that fight so not a lot of plays can be made or talked about anyway lol my bad

 

[pytycrys]

I think you guys are wasting way too much time trying to guess what will happen in Ferg vs Khabib.

There are 12 fights left on the card, there are way better spots in there rather than trying to flip a coin on Ferg - Khabib.

 

[raketmannen]

I think you guys are wasting way too much time trying to guess what will happen in Ferg vs Khabib.

There are 12 fights left on the card, there are way better spots in there rather than trying to flip a coin on Ferg - Khabib.

I wouldn't call it a coinflip when one fighter is close to +250 but I hear ya

 

[raketmannen]

It's a sign of a great fight when the hundreds of hours of conversation and studying about both combatants still has you guessing how it will play out. The eagle vs El Cucuy is one for the books. Out of curiosity is anyone playing anything on AES vs Rawlings? I don't have an interest in it myself I'm just curious what others thoughts are. -210 is way too expensive of a fade on Rawlings for me.

Edit* I forgot props arent out yet for that fight so not a lot of plays can be made or talked about anyway lol my bad

I like AES in that fight, as long as she don't have any problems with the weight cut. She should have a pretty decent size advantage with Bec coming up from 115 and AES going down. Jessica Rose Clark had success taking down Bec and controling her and AES who is a better wrestler on paper should be able to do the same. Not to big a fan of them odds though, will look out for decision prop, Bec is pretty tough and I don't see her getting finished here