UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

[Wiktoruspro]

I Just watched Gruetzmacher vs Davi Ramos and I might take a stab of him as a dog. He didnt get submited on the ground, has a good chin and makes pressure . Joe is coming from a ko loss and IMO is on a decline

 

[Sham5916910]

And dunham has always been overrated as hell. His claim to fame is that he subbed Efrain and had a close fight with Sherk.

How about beating the snort out of a juiced Tibua or beating RDA (terrible decision)?

 

[raketmannen]

Ferguson was up to +240, I like the price but I feel like it will almost certainly be an even better price live betting during or after the first round. If even more money come in on Khabib I will have to bet some prefight

 

[Jamah]

I would bet on Dunham if it wasn't that he is 36 yo and that's very old for a LW.
He has always been slow, but now he is looking a bit slower and and less durable.
If this fight was going to take place in 2016, I would bet on Dunham for sure. But OAM's striking looked a lot better in his last 2 fights, he is getting better.
OAM is also the stronger guy.

 

[piglord]

I Just watched Gruetzmacher vs Davi Ramos and I might take a stab of him as a dog. He didnt get submited on the ground, has a good chin and makes pressure . Joe is coming from a ko loss and IMO is on a decline

i love gruetzemacher as a dog. wish i had waited for that +150. money coming in on lauzon is crazy imo he's a 1 round fighter these days.

 

[Sham5916910]

I would bet on Dunham if it wasn't that he is 36 yo and that's very old for a LW.
He has always been slow, but now he is looking a bit slower and and less durable.
If this fight was going to take place in 2016, I would bet on Dunham for sure. But OAM's striking looked a lot better in his last 2 fights, he is getting better.
OAM is also the stronger guy.

Why is he looking less durable? Dariush hurt him with an elbow that was borderline back of the head. Dunham still survived tho and came back and won r2 and r3. This talk that OAM being stronger than Dunham is off too IMO. Dunham doesn't look physically imposing but he is strong. Watch his fight with Tibua. He is constantly able to hold his own in the clinch with him and turn him. I fully expect OAM to struggle for td's and if he does hit any I expect Dunham to get straight back to his feet.

 

[Sham5916910]

Ferguson was up to +240, I like the price but I feel like it will almost certainly be an even better price live betting during or after the first round. If even more money come in on Khabib I will have to bet some prefight

I'm almost certain Kebab wins r1 and we get a better price on Ferg after r1. No matter what happens in r1 out of principle I will smash the fuck out of Ferg's line if i can get +400 or better.

 

[Jamah]

Why is he looking less durable? Dariush hurt him with an elbow that was borderline back of the head. Dunham still survived tho and came back and won r2 and r3. This talk that OAM being stronger than Dunham is off too IMO. Dunham doesn't look physically imposing but he is strong. Watch his fight with Tibua. He is constantly able to hold his own in the clinch with him and turn him. I fully expect OAM to struggle for td's and if he does hit any I expect Dunham to get straight back to his feet.

The thing is that I'm not convinced that Dunham is going to dominate on the feet. OAM doesn't throw a lot of volume, but he looked very sharp against Dober and held his own against Martin. His striking is improving, you can't deny that.

 

[ill800]

I'll never argue with a stab at those type of odds but I actually went the other way and put a little on Moicano round 3 +2200 and sub +826. Before the Burgos fight Kattar's last stoppage win was in 2010, seven consecutive wins by decision, and the majority of those fights were not against UFC level competition. It took a perfect, clean shot to get Burgos out of there and even then Burgos arguably could have continued.

Meanwhile, Moicano has shown an excellent chin. He was able to absorb clean shots from Ortega and Stephens, and look at what those guys have been doing lately. I expect Moicano to go to his leg kicks very often here, something which he had a ton of success with against Stephens and Kattar has had a lot of trouble dealing with even pre-UFC (see the Gabriel Baino fight on YouTube). Moicano is also an excellent grappler/submission threat even though he hasn't shown it much in his last few fights. I think if Kattar's legs are compromised, it will be easier for Moicano to get this to the ground where he should have a significant advantage.

I would agree with most of what you posted but why does moicano have a significant advantage on the ground?

Also, can you rely on moicano to execute a kick heavy gameplan successfuly against a smart fighter like kattar?

Moicano should’ve used the same strategy against Ortega but he decided he would stand in the pocket with him like an idiot and get punched in the face repeatedly

 

[Oblivian]

And dunham has always been overrated as hell. His claim to fame is that he subbed Efrain and had a close fight with Sherk.

No idea how you can say that. Since 2012, his only loss as a favorite was against TJ Grant. He won as an underdog during that time vs. Pearson and has cruised in a lot of fights as an easy guy to bet. He just had a draw with Dariush when most thought Dariush was a horrible matchup. And look at his losses - Cerrone, RDA, Barboza, and Grant. Many actually thought he won the fight vs. RDA as well. In fact, every single play by play had it for Dunham.

 

[quincy k]

I'm almost certain Kebab wins r1 and we get a better price on Ferg after r1. No matter what happens in r1 out of principle I will smash the fuck out of Ferg's line if i can get +400 or better.

really dont understand people betting ferg now. im pretty certain we see +400 and even +500 once khabib is on top and tony spends the entire five minutes on bottom. probably wont even need to wait until round two

 

[Oblivian]

The thing is that I'm not convinced that Dunham is going to dominate on the feet. OAM doesn't throw a lot of volume, but he looked very sharp against Dober and held his own against Martin. His striking is improving, you can't deny that.

But the problem against Dunham is that you can't get by standing with low volume. Dunham has an incredibly high volume. If OAM could really crack at that low volume style, it may be trouble. Dunham should win the striking on volume alone IMO.

 

[levitation]

I'm thinking... the last time Dunham fought a style similar to OAM was his victory against Tibau 5 years ago. I'd probably have to watch that fight to get my capping answers. I actually like watching OAM's takedown style. "Dunham is underrated and OAM is overrated" is probably right, but I'd be concerned that OAM gets a W from cage pushing for 15 minutes. Dunham definitely has better striking tho.

Also I'm starting to think that Khabib is going to win by mounted crucifix punches/elbow on Tony.

 

[Sham5916910]

The thing is that I'm not convinced that Dunham is going to dominate on the feet. OAM doesn't throw a lot of volume, but he looked very sharp against Dober and held his own against Martin. His striking is improving, you can't deny that.

I never denied that. I disputed you questioning his durability and being out muscled by OAM.

 

[Sham5916910]

But the problem against Dunham is that you can't get by standing with low volume. Dunham has an incredibly high volume. If OAM could really crack at that low volume style, it may be trouble. Dunham should win the striking on volume alone IMO.

This. Dunham averages 5.5 slpm. Surely in light of how many fights hes had in the UFC that's the record at LW? Also he hasnt lost r3 since his second UFC fight and hes had over 20 (he did not lose r3 to RDA that's bs). So OAM better make damn sure he wins r1 and r2.

 

[t6p]

I would agree with most of what you posted but why does moicano have a significant advantage on the ground?

Also, can you rely on moicano to execute a kick heavy gameplan successfuly against a smart fighter like kattar?

Moicano should’ve used the same strategy against Ortega but he decided he would stand in the pocket with him like an idiot and punched in the face repeatedly

I said Moicano should have a significant advantage on the ground, but you're right I can't say for sure. Kattar has looked competent there from what we've seen so far, but he's still a blue belt, while Moicano has had his black belt for years. I don't think it's a stretch to say that Moicano is the strongest grappler that Kattar has ever faced and Kattar would much prefer to keep the fight standing.

As far as the Ortega fight goes, Ortega was coming off a competitive fight with Guida (until the finish obviously) where Guida was arguably getting the better of him on the feet. I think Moicano felt he had the boxing advantage coming in, but Ortega brought more to the table than he was expecting, particularly with his ability to walk through everything Moicano was hitting him with and maintain that ridiculous pressure. Still, Moicano did out land Ortega nearly 2-1 and he might have won had he not attempted that takedown. But yea, overall not the best showing of fight IQ from Moicano in that fight.

On the flipside, Moicano executed the perfect gameplan against Stephens (should have been a clear UD, Stephens did not win the 1st or 3rd), and a lot of what he did there applies to this matchup with Kattar imo. Kattar's stance is naturally going to leave him vulnerable to low kicks and he rarely, if ever checks them. I'd be shocked if they weren't a big part of Moicano's gameplan here.

 

[Oblivian]

My biggest worries with Dunham against OAM is that he is easy to hit, he wears damage, and OAM may be able to clinch him quite a bit. On the flip side though, OAM has to worry about Dunham's striking, his volume, his cardio, his well roundedness, and if Dunham gets on top. I don't know - I cap Dunham closer to -200 here.

 

[Jamah]

I never denied that. I disputed you questioning his durability and being out muscled by OAM.

I didn't think that Dariush shots were that hard, so I had to watch that fight again. He got hurt by clean elbows to the side of the head, so I guess that you were right.

 

[turbozed]

As far as the Ortega fight goes, Ortega was coming off a competitive fight with Guida (until the finish obviously) where Guida was arguably getting the better of him on the feet. I think Moicano felt he had the boxing advantage coming in, but Ortega brought more to the table than he was expecting, particularly with his ability to walk through everything Moicano was hitting him with and maintain that ridiculous pressure. Still, Moicano did out land Ortega nearly 2-1 and he might have won had he not attempted that takedown. But yea, overall not the best showing of fight IQ from Moicano in that fight.

I had the same conclusion as you. It was clear that Moicano was coming into the fight confident that Ortega's striking wouldn't pose a big threat in the pocket. He stood in the pocket and had a little success, but I think Ortega really surprised him by being more accurate and tougher than he expected. He hit Ortega with some good shots and it didn't deter Ortega in the slightest. The problem was that he couldn't abandon the strategy and try something different. First, they obviously planned to have Moicana stand there and deter Ortega coming and only using hands (because the TD threat). Second, he was arguably winning the first 2 rounds, so why change? What he didn't expect was Ortega coming on strong in the 3rd and the pressure. So he went to his grappling and got sloppy.

Against Kattar, I doubt he's going to make the same mistake. There won't be a big threat of a TD, so he's free to use his kicks. He knows Kattar has good hands so he's not going to come in trading in the pocket where Kattar is strong. If he throws kicks and use his movement like he did against Stephens, he should have control over the exchanges. With his superior ground game (at least on paper) he can also threaten takedowns too if Kattar comes in overextending himself. Unless Kattar really brings the pressure, Moicano likely will have control over the engagements, the pace, and the setups. For these reasons, I think Moicano should be the favorite.

 

[zeckdo]

Just watched Zabit's 3 fights on Fight pass. Maybe I should watch his ACB fights because this guy doesn't deserve to be -700 from what I've seen. I sorta thought he was undefeated until juicehead gorilla Igor Egorov subbed him. Wish he would focus on less spinning shit and fancy techniques and just focus on counter striking. Great takedowns, good in scrambles, however his subs aren't as lethal as they should be. He spends most of the Moraes fight on top on the ground, and Moraes looked totally hopeless, no escape or sweep attempts, he was just comfortable laying on the ground. Eventually he sunk in a nice anaconda but I think he should have finished that bum in the 1st.

Bochniak just fought a guy who has similar stature to Zabit, tall lanky striker in Davis, BD fought like a can in this fight, no gameplan, kept making gestures like "come on" or "nah that didn't hurt", all while constantly backing up and not landing anything significant. Kyle did good staying on his bike, keeping himself out of range, has good explosive takedowns too, don't think he'll want to keep Zabit on the ground, but should see a lot of scrambling between the two. Jeremey Kennedy took him down easily, and kept him down, so I imagine Zabit will try and mimic this strategy. I think Bochniak improved his circling striking a lot after getting dominated by Kennedy.

Bochniak's path to victory is to stay on the outside, avoid spinning shit, and engage at the right times in exchanges like he did against Davis. He can just John Dodson his way to winning a decision. unlikely, but not +525.

I cap it at -300 Zabit, +400 Bochniak.

.5u Bochniak ML +525

Edit: Am I delusional and totally wrong about Zabit? dude is down to -850. Bochniak up to +575