Just watched Zabit's 3 fights on Fight pass. Maybe I should watch his ACB fights because this guy doesn't deserve to be -700 from what I've seen. I sorta thought he was undefeated until juicehead gorilla Igor Egorov subbed him. Wish he would focus on less spinning shit and fancy techniques and just focus on counter striking. Great takedowns, good in scrambles, however his subs aren't as lethal as they should be. He spends most of the Moraes fight on top on the ground, and Moraes looked totally hopeless, no escape or sweep attempts, he was just comfortable laying on the ground. Eventually he sunk in a nice anaconda but I think he should have finished that bum in the 1st.
Bochniak just fought a guy who has similar stature to Zabit, tall lanky striker in Davis, BD fought like a can in this fight, no gameplan, kept making gestures like "come on" or "nah that didn't hurt", all while constantly backing up and not landing anything significant. Kyle did good staying on his bike, keeping himself out of range, has good explosive takedowns too, don't think he'll want to keep Zabit on the ground, but should see a lot of scrambling between the two. Jeremey Kennedy took him down easily, and kept him down, so I imagine Zabit will try and mimic this strategy. I think Bochniak improved his circling striking a lot after getting dominated by Kennedy.
Bochniak's path to victory is to stay on the outside, avoid spinning shit, and engage at the right times in exchanges like he did against Davis. He can just John Dodson his way to winning a decision. unlikely, but not +525.
I cap it at -300 Zabit, +400 Bochniak.
.5u Bochniak ML +525
Edit: Am I delusional and totally wrong about Zabit? dude is down to -850. Bochniak up to +575