UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

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Orion said:
Further confidence decrease in Max
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Not what you want to hear if you're betting Max of course, but he's looked horrible on the scale in the past and his cardio has still been great.
 
Oblivian said:
I think his point is that it's a little strange to see a lot of value in Khabib at -350, but then also seeing value in Max at +400. If you see a lot of value in Khabib at -350, I'd assume you cap him above -400 meaning Max wouldn't have value to you at +400.
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You got a point there. It's strange because I wanted to take Khabib at -350 but now I think about it I do see value on Max at +400 and I think he has over 20% chance to win this one.

So me betting a lot on Khabib at -350 would've been a mistake probably, but I stand behind betting Max at +400 for sure.
 
Oblivian said:
I think his point is that it's a little strange to see a lot of value in Khabib at -350, but then also seeing value in Max at +400. If you see a lot of value in Khabib at -350, I'd assume you cap him above -400 meaning Max wouldn't have value to you at +400.
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Good that you guys point this out. Makes me think and reflect even more about the bet on Khabib I initially wanted to place at -350. And I think it would've been real borderline and not worth risking a lot of units on.
 
Is it impossible to think that time away from a training camp and being hurt may have its benefits? Obv Re: Max.
 
CheeseAndHoneyMustard said:
Yeah I'm getting a chuckle out of people in the UFC section and such acting like Khabib is gonna be this monster compared to Max.

Max looks like straight up death everytime he makes weight. I'm sure Khabib will be heavier fight day, but I think it will be under 10 lbs for sure
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Khabib manhandles "big" lightweights like Johnson and RDA as if they were nothing, and himself has trouble making weight. This is a "big" FW against a "big" LW, so I expect Khabib to be much bigger/stronger in the cage.
 
Holloway hasn't fought a good wrestler in a long time. I think his TDD isn't going to show for much, though I'd expect him to have been training for Ortega and Frankie and thus practicing his grappling/wrestling. Coming off injury and without the skillset to be dangerous on the ground like Tony had, I honest cap Khabib around -500.
 
EzFlyer said:
Max has a huge edge on the feet. He's sturdy as hell. If he can keep his back off of the cage I think he pieces khabib up. Clear path to victory. Easier said than done, but max has as good of a slillset to accomplish this as anyone. Better than tony, In fact. Tony was gonna 100% have to come from behind. His tdd not nearly as good
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I would argue about Tony's tdd, look how he stuffed RDA tds a few times or Josh Thompson fights.How many wrestlers has Max faced.Barboza tdd wasn't even near to enough.Max is a tall and lanky fighter, I also have doubts about his bottom game.He should be heavily outmuscled as well
 
Khabib ITD down to 1.3 on my book, KO to 1.91 from 2.6 and Sub holding at 3.75. Personally would rate KO/Sub at about 2.5 a pop.
 
Do u guys know of any other website that does props betting as in.... 3 fights end in a decisionm 7 by ko 4 by sub or any combination like that. Because only site I know of is sportbet.com and they dont post those props till like the day of the fights?????
 
michi972 said:
If he would slaughter Ortega on the mat, then I can't imagine what he will do to Max
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Yeah I don't think any analysis is even helpful here. Every fight you can analyze of Max's was after a proper camp and in peak form. This is a disaster -- 18 hour flight, recently injured ankle, no camp, most amount of weight he has cut in this amount of time, no carbs all week, and against a fully peaked title-ready Khabib who is going to be looking to trip that same ankle in the clinch and push his conditioning to its absolute limits.

If Max somehow pulls this shit off it'll be incredible.
 
mposhtkouhi said:
Do u guys know of any other website that does props betting as in.... 3 fights end in a decisionm 7 by ko 4 by sub or any combination like that. Because only site I know of is sportbet.com and they dont post those props till like the day of the fights?????
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Event props always get posted at 5Dimes day of the fight because any one fight cancellation voids all the props.
 
Geez even poor people can attend this event.

I was just looking at tickets

I would be expecting some of you elite bettors to be sitting in sections 24 or 8.

I would love to do a Brooklyn road trip this weekend. Just don’t think it’s in the cards. Wifey is working
 
I can't believe that anyone is suggesting that Max in this ridiculous circumstance has a better chance to beat Khabib than Tony did.
 
Cashed in my +400 unit and put 1,5 unit on Max at +432 with the daily boost at WH.
 
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