UFC 228 - Till V Woodley

Woodley has 10 minutes of cardio if he goes with a grappling heavy gameplan. That's it. Yes he will tire Till that way too but I'd trust Till to have more left after rd 2.

I think it's Till's time. Have him at +115 for 1u. Probably will make a small play on his KO line too.
 
MT6ix said:
Wonderboy said after the Till fight, that Till felt like a brick wall, he is just that big and strong and hard to move. What he said stuck with me, people underestimating how big and strong Till is. A lot of it looks like it's in his lower body too.
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Just listened to submission radios recent interview with Wonderboy. He said Till was a bigger body than he was used to, but not the strongest opponent he faced and that Woodley was definitely stronger than him

around the 10:30 mark


btw I got 2.8u on Till to win 3u so I'm not making a case for Woodley here
 
For a girl who just knocked down Claudia Gadelha with a punch, +2445 ko line isn't out of the realm.
 
zeckdo said:
For a girl who just knocked down Claudia Gadelha with a punch, +2445 ko line isn't out of the realm.
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personally i'm taking a stab on carla dec at +525, think the line is off.
 
piglord said:
personally i'm taking a stab on carla dec at +525, think the line is off.
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Wasn't her ml like +500 a day ago? I mean the likelihood of Esparza finishing is so slim, but when she's already almost a 5-1 underdog is it worth betting a prop for 10%~ more return than the ml?

edit Okay saw that she was down to +425 now so around 20% difference, would still suck to get burned on an anomaly happening when you picked the right fighter as a huge underdog
 
raketmannen said:
edit Okay saw that she was down to +425 now so around 20% difference, would still suck to get burned on an anomaly happening when you picked the right fighter as a huge underdog
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yeah you're probably right, i remember hitting moraga sub against bibulatov and skipped his ml.
 
mkess101 said:
Woodley has 10 minutes of cardio if he goes with a grappling heavy gameplan. That's it. Yes he will tire Till that way too but I'd trust Till to have more left after rd 2.
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Woodley doesn’t need to grapple more than 10 mins to win 3 rounds, he could get a td in the middle of round to win a 10-9 round or get a knockdown to win a round.

Before Nunes vs Shev 2, everyone was sure that Nunes would get tired in later rounds.
 
MT6ix said:
I'm also interested in the over/unders in this fight because Woodley is not looking to put on an exciting fight and it could be another snoozefest since Till will be looking to stuff takedowns and feinting to draw out Woodley's right hand and vice versa.
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over 2.5 is a solid bet imo
 
theTKDguy said:
hey piglord you left fb?
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the fuckers have unpublished my page because i promote "real money gambling" - which apparently is a bad thing. i'm trying to get it back asap.

by the way i recognise you from my page o, thanks for interacting!
 
teddy078 said:
Woodley doesn’t need to grapple more than 10 mins to win 3 rounds, he could get a td in the middle of round to win a 10-9 round or get a knockdown to win a round.

Before Nunes vs Shev 2, everyone was sure that Nunes would get tired in later rounds.
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Schev probably won that fight for what it's worth, but Nunes definitely adjusted her gameplan based on how the first fight went.

Yes, in a perfect world for Woodley he could secure TD's later in a couple rounds to seal them. But...that hasn't been his M.O. in...forever.

Am I saying it's IMPOSSIBLE your scenario plays out? Of course not. But I don't cap fights based on what's possible. I cap fights based on how likely I think outcomes are. To me, the % that Woodley does what you are saying is small enough to not factor it in too much. Not to mention the fact that even if he were to try that (again, unlikely imo) that doesn't mean he necessarily has success doing it.
 
I think some of the Woodley bettors are getting too caught up on Till's fight with Wonderboy. Till hasn't been that timid in any of his other fights. They're expecting Woodley to execute a gameplan he rarely does, and expect Till to fight a way he rarely does.
 
Who the fook steemed Aldana 15 minutes before I was about to drop bombs at -105 for that 3-5% roi.

Cant even bet it now complete waste of time fml.
 
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Tough card.

Probably going to fade Niko Price again. Hope it works out this time!!
 
Perry implied on Twitter that he has been doing a lot of sparring with Diego this camp, which makes a lot of sense, but has me worried for Diego.

I imagine their sparring sessions to be pretty lacking in technique and with an over emphasis on power shots.

Diego may have the worst chin in the UFC at the moment.
 
piglord said:
the fuckers have unpublished my page because i promote "real money gambling" - which apparently is a bad thing. i'm trying to get it back asap.

by the way i recognise you from my page o, thanks for interacting!
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Weird. I've seen plenty of tipping groups. Hell, my own FB page which I use for advertising is still up.
 
Just dropped a fat 50 on Tyron to beat mah boii Darren

RIP thy bootiful silverback
 
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