UFC 228 - Till V Woodley

rev0lver said:
I know a lot of you are gonna say "it's more fun if you bet" lol but I'm looking for some advice on something.

I use mma betting mostly to supplement my income. My base salary is livable but not very much, and it's nice to have an extra few hundred (at least) every month, and I always make sure I don't bet more than I can afford. Never ruined myself with losses, thankfully.

I profited about $1300 from the Lincoln card. Kept $1200, and left $100 in my book to mess around with. This week I've brought that $100 up to about $800 on random bets and throwing a few bucks into slots out of boredom. I'm also about to receive a $2000 bonus at work in a few days.

Should I just keep my money and watch 228 for fun? Or try to maximize my profits while risking a loss? There's a lot of events where I DIDN'T end up with $800 or more, and it would suck to lose it while I'm riding some good wins.
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Good advices by @mkess101 and @t6p

Hardest thing for me is to be patient and not bet on everything. I play small tho.

Gambling is hard. Sometimes you are riding an excellent streak and you feel invincible and then everything goes downhill for a couple of events.

I find the "units" (% based bets) really useful for that matter. You dont get too greedy that way and if you are good at it (which you are) you will make money long term.

As far as taking your money out and use it you can set some % of your earnings at the end of the month leave something in your bankroll and use the other to buy things you earned. I always wanted to do 50/50 but had problems with my previous bookie and now Im starting all over again.

Also.. if you have a bad feeling about UFC 228 dont feel pressure to bet. Maybe you can pass and enjoy the show.

I for once stopped betting on fights I really want to enjoy. Im already regretting placing a small bet on Conor/Khabib. I also think there are much more money to be made in the undercard fights.
 
money coming in on Roberto Sanchez. Glad I got him at 1.90. Any big flags on Benoit I didn't notice?
 
I was disappointed when Stamann vs Sterling was announced because I'm really high on both and made good money on both.

But I gotta think this match up is really in Sterling's favor, he doesn't have a big advantage anywhere but he does have lots of small advantages which add up and give him the edge over Stamann.

Stamann is a basic boxer/wrestler, almost a bit of a throwback fighter but he's very good at what he does, he's also a big, strong, athletic BW which complements his style a lot. Stamann is going to struggle with Sterling though, he's at a significant reach disadvantage and he's not good enough to out wrestle Sterling and hold him down.

Sterling has really improved his striking, he'll keep Stamann at the end of his kicks and punches and whatever grappling exchanges they have, I see Sterling coming out on top. Stamann doesn't have the best top control and his BJJ isn't on Sterling's level. When Caraway took down Stamann, he couldn't get up and was put in compromising positions, wouldn't surprise me if the same thing happens with Sterling.

They're both young, skilled, athletic fighters with promising futures in the UFC but Sterling is just the better overall fighter in this match up, I don't know what advantages Stamann has here. From experience, skill, athleticism to the gyms they train at, Sterling has it over Stamann.

Stamann is a winner but it's time for him to lose
 
Danis_champ said:
money coming in on Roberto Sanchez. Glad I got him at 1.90. Any big flags on Benoit I didn't notice?
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I wouldn't be bragging about that, at the end of the day Roberto is a bum, the way he went down vs Morales doesn't inspire confidence

But Benoit really isn't anything special and he's a hard guy to trust as well. I guess this is a striker vs grappler match up, both guys have their flaws and paths to victory.

Benoit has been working on his grappling though, did his whole camp with Gary Tonon and Tonon will be in his corner. I think I'll side with Benoit

 
piglord said:
interesting to see how this gets lined, i also think it's favorable for brooks.
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I was mostly reffering to this tweet from Brooks - “Your lucky that I knocked myself out and you didn’t do sh*t to me that whole fight,” wrote Brooks in a tweet that he ended up deleting soon after posting it last night. “Just seen your after-fight interview … well played. But, if we run that sh*t back, I beat you 9 times-out-of 10, and the only time you do is me KO’ing myself!”

But I also think it's a favorable match up for Brooks, good wrestler and his speed on the feet should be a problem for Sanchez, will probably crack him early
 
raketmannen said:
I was mostly reffering to this tweet from Brooks - “Your lucky that I knocked myself out and you didn’t do sh*t to me that whole fight,” wrote Brooks in a tweet that he ended up deleting soon after posting it last night. “Just seen your after-fight interview … well played. But, if we run that sh*t back, I beat you 9 times-out-of 10, and the only time you do is me KO’ing myself!”

But I also think it's a favorable match up for Brooks, his speed on the feet will be a problem for Sanchez already suspect chin
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Im pretty high on Brooks tbh. Will be interesting to see the odds.

Edit: Also I dont think short notice would have much to do with Brooks weightcut. He has fought at 115lbs before.
 
I'd be huge on Brooks if the line's not ridiculous. Hopefully his two-fight losing streak makes it playable in the books

Any word what happened to Benoit?
 
brooks line will be bet to a bigish fav pretty quick id imagine. from a dk perspective i wonder if he comes out with a slightly less wrestling based gameplan. maybe he always will default to it but sanchez aint got a good chin
 
Dianabol said:
I was disappointed when Stamann vs Sterling was announced because I'm really high on both and made good money on both.

But I gotta think this match up is really in Sterling's favor, he doesn't have a big advantage anywhere but he does have lots of small advantages which add up and give him the edge over Stamann.

Stamann is a basic boxer/wrestler, almost a bit of a throwback fighter but he's very good at what he does, he's also a big, strong, athletic BW which complements his style a lot. Stamann is going to struggle with Sterling though, he's at a significant reach disadvantage and he's not good enough to out wrestle Sterling and hold him down.

Sterling has really improved his striking, he'll keep Stamann at the end of his kicks and punches and whatever grappling exchanges they have, I see Sterling coming out on top. Stamann doesn't have the best top control and his BJJ isn't on Sterling's level. When Caraway took down Stamann, he couldn't get up and was put in compromising positions, wouldn't surprise me if the same thing happens with Sterling.

They're both young, skilled, athletic fighters with promising futures in the UFC but Sterling is just the better overall fighter in this match up, I don't know what advantages Stamann has here. From experience, skill, athleticism to the gyms they train at, Sterling has it over Stamann.

Stamann is a winner but it's time for him to lose
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Well said. Sterling is my biggest play of the card. I expect a fairly competitive fight but a 30-27 regardless.
 
Danis_champ said:
Is there any good example of a guy who trains at random place with no elite known training partners and has very good wrestling?

Who is Till training with? Some bums from Liverpool? He beat WB because of his deep muay thai backround and size. His wrestling can't be on a very good level. I'd be shcoked if he can stop Woodleys takedowns.
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Tony Ferguson, Kevin Lee, Mighty Mouse? Spitballing here.
EDIT: Do you consider Miocic a good wrestler? Who does Usman train with?
 
Dodson is slowing down, he turns 34 next month, he's past his prime. He clearly isn't as dangerous of a puncher at 135 as he was at 125. I was big on Dodson against Munhoz and I thought he lost that fight. But with all that said, Dodson is still one of the fastest if not the fastest in the BW division and he's still a top 10 fighter.

Rivera was on a 20 fight win streak prior to the Marlon fight, 15-1 on decisions, Dodson is 9-9 on decisions. I don't see Dodson knocking out Rivera, he's hasn't shown he's a KO threat at 135, stopping a shot Manny G means nothing. Rivera is a great point fighter, he knows how to edge out close rounds, he'll even go for takedowns if he has to and Rivera has 100% takedown defense himself. Rivera is also younger by nearly 5 years, has a slight reach advantage and higher output.

Maybe Dodson will go back down to 125 after he loses this fight, now that DJ is no longer champion he could be a fight or two away from a title shot.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
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I'm fucking okay with that this cancels my most likely bum bet in Roberto Sanchez. Short notice or not I think Brooks beats his ass

OutRun said:
Tony Ferguson, Kevin Lee, Mighty Mouse? Spitballing here.
EDIT: Do you consider Miocic a good wrestler? Who does Usman train with?
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Nooo those guys are lifelong wrestlers. I'm talking about somebody who didn't start in wrestling but developed good wrestling over the years without noticeable training partners
 
Dianabol said:
Dodson is slowing down, he turns 34 next month, he's past his prime. He clearly isn't as dangerous of a puncher at 135 as he was at 125. I was big on Dodson against Munhoz and I thought he lost that fight. But with all that said, Dodson is still one of the fastest if not the fastest in the BW division and he's still a top 10 fighter.

Rivera was on a 20 fight win streak prior to the Marlon fight, 15-1 on decisions, Dodson is 9-9 on decisions. I don't see Dodson knocking out Rivera, he's hasn't shown he's a KO threat at 135, stopping a shot Manny G means nothing. Rivera is a great point fighter, he knows how to edge out close rounds, he'll even go for takedowns if he has to and Rivera has 100% takedown defense himself. Rivera is also younger by nearly 5 years, has a slight reach advantage and higher output.

Maybe Dodson will go back down to 125 after he loses this fight, now that DJ is no longer champion he could be a fight or two away from a title shot.
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I just think a Rivera win looks like a split decision on higher output, against Dodson probably winning a round off a knockdown and maaaaaybe having an argument for another one on having the harder strikes. Dodson's got the higher upside in this matchup, IMO, between KO-threat and Rivera's chin being not-great. If I had to bet I'd go Dodson at like +120, maybe a stab on the KO1 (He's got Woodley disease where most of his KOs just come from blitzing the other dude), but I don't think there's a huge value edge to found on either side at current price.

I think Rivera's the least durable non-Gamburyan BW that Dodson's fought in this current run. Rivera also rushing back IMO from getting sparked clean.
 
Danis_champ said:
Going hard in muay thai? hmm, no wrestling? Confidence increase Woodley
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Woodley ain't wrestling. He hardly tries takedowns anyway and Till will be too big and hit too hard to keep up on the attempts.
 
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