UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis (Nov 3, 2018)

[LiquidNuke]

This is the main reason I'm either not throwing on Marcos or just playing his ko line. I doubt he can sub matt so I have no interest in his itd line. I also don't think Marcos can win a decision because he doesnt fight composed ever (except for a little bit vs osp). If he played a sprawl and brawl gameplan, he could easily cruise to a decision or get a ko, but I just expect something to happen like Marcos jumping a guillotine or diving for a td and getting dominated on the ground. Marcos could literally be dominating and then randomly subbed on the floor at any point of this fight. Therefore, I would much rather play Marcos ko at a good return because if he wins, it will mostly be by fucking Adam up badly with strikes. I don't see Marcos cruising to a decision with striking.

If the fight narrows up enough odd wise the ITD line might not even be +250... Who knows, I'm glad I got on it early. Seems like a decent spot.

 

[raketmannen]

 

[ill800]

Dc sub +240
Cannon ko +585
Roxanne sub +1545
Lima ko +335
Souza sub +350
Brunson dec +585
Rinaldi ko +1115
Jackson ko +260

 

[Stunna77]

Finished Brunson/Israel tape. Everyone is familar with both so not going to write a huge thing, but a couple things I noticed:

-Brunson is very strong from the body lock and can hit nice trip takedowns from there
-Israel gets backed into the fence and allows for the bodylock every fight
-Brunson carries huge power and speed in his left hand
-Israel gets caught flush by Vettori and Tavares with left hands. He was also KO'd stiff by a short left hook in his last kickboxing fight in 2017.
-Israel's power is definitely overrated, hit Tavares (who we have seen KO'd and rocked plenty) clean many times and never really had him reeling.

I know a Brunson bumrush into a solid counter isn't going to shock anyone, myself included, but my bets are as follows:

1u Brunson +270
.25u Brunson Rd1 +800
1.4375u NOT Israel ITD -115 (stupid limits made for wierd sizing)

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Link
“I’ve watched some of his highlights,” Knight said when asked about his UFC 230 opponent. “I watched the fight with Gregor Gillespie. From what I can tell Jordan looks like he is going to be a well-rounded fighter. It doesn’t look like he stands out anywhere.”

“The one thing I see that I can exploit is that when you hit him hard, he doesn’t like to get hit,” he continued. “And I promise you, Im going to hit him hard. That’s a guarantee. Whether or not he takes it, we are going to see, but I’m going to hit him hard as hell, I promise you.”

Lol for a guy whom isn't taking this fight seriously. Jason is funny.

 

[Stunna77]

Props I liked:

DC KO -135 and -155
DC rd 1/2 +125/+300
Lando rd 1+225
Souza TKO +835
Souza NSC +100
Good Rd 2 +400
Lima rd1 +450
Lima KO +335

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Roxanne sub +1545

I mean, I understand it's a potentially great pay-off, but the chances of this occurring are probably less than 1%. Roxanne's submission attempts are sloppy as hell and if nothing else, Eubanks has really good jits for a woman, far superior to Roxy's, and also has a large strength advantage. (So she can even power out if need be)

 

[lefontes]

Lima is 9-0 on heavyweight...

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Props I liked:

DC KO -135 and -155
DC rd 1/2 +125/+300
Lando rd 1+225
Souza TKO +835
Souza NSC +100
Good Rd 2 +400
Lima rd1 +450
Lima KO +335

Why Jacare NSC? I know Weidman doesnt have the best power, but Jacare getting kinda old, can’t trust his chin that much anymore. And I don’t think Jacare can finish Weidman too easily. Maybe club and sub, but Jacare isnt nearly the same KO threat as Luke, Yoel, or Moose

 

[AIGOD]

My sherbros . just want to say mma bet dis >>>>>>>>>>ufc discussion. Just turned 45 into 500 on the ole roull wheel. Goung to play poker the next sev days .and then looking to invest all on a ufc cfb sat parlay. I will be scouraging this forum for next sev days. Seems most dont like the card...i find those the most appealing. Lots of dogs. Beast has legit chance. I think he knows he can do it. But might not want the fame bs, so loses. Israel wins. Eubanks wins. Love this forum. Fyi...ipa +sour d. Ty nature-universe.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Interesting Analysis. Hope some find this useful

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Adesanya will destroy Brunson on distance

You can never go wrong with a fighter that has 14/20/50/ wins and no losses. Most of the time.

 

[Gugabe]

I wish Julio Arce was in the -250 range. He is the closest thing to a lock on this card.
If I was rolling in it, I would absolutely feel confident dropping a couple thousand on him. Same with Shane Burgos.

I feel like Sheymon's pretty live against Arce there. Sheymon should be about +150, and Sheymon's fought the better competition in his career thusfar. No reason to see him as lock.

You can never go wrong with a fighter that has 14/20/50/ wins and no losses. Most of the time.

Brunson's just not the sort of dude I'd fade at -300, or the sort of dude that I'd play at more than -200. He's wild, chaotic and can crack. -350 on Israel's a silly line against somebody with Brunson's raw finishing ability.

 

[burge13]

I feel like Sheymon's pretty live against Arce there. Arce should be about +150, and Sheymon's fought the better competition in his career thusfar. No reason to see him as lock.

Arce odds are approaching -400 and you say he should be +150? You must be dropping the hammer on Sheymon?

I don't think he should be above +200 either but that's going too far

 

[kevinramsdell]

I'm thinking an easy 3-team parlay of Adesanya, Cormier & Eubanks. 3 big favorites who should be able to win or at least have the skillset to win easily. $129 bet for a $100 win. Opinions???

 

[Gugabe]

Arce odds are approaching -400 and you say he should be +150? You must be dropping the hammer on Sheymon?

I don't think he should be above +200 either but that's going too far

Oops. Meant Arce should be about -150, but yeah I'm going pretty hard on Sheymon.

I'm thinking an easy 3-team parlay of Adesanya, Cormier & Eubanks. 3 big favorites who should be able to win or at least have the skillset to win easily. $129 bet for a $100 win. Opinions???

Those are all negative EV lines from this new juice era. All 3 of those are pure dog-or-pass situations, with Cormier only playable by prop.

 

[piglord]

I'm thinking an easy 3-team parlay of Adesanya, Cormier & Eubanks. 3 big favorites who should be able to win or at least have the skillset to win easily. $129 bet for a $100 win. Opinions???

from a value perspective i don't like it, even though it very well may cash. i don't think this is a good parlay card at all, i'd rather try my luck with some dogs.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

I'm thinking an easy 3-team parlay of Adesanya, Cormier & Eubanks. 3 big favorites who should be able to win or at least have the skillset to win easily. $129 bet for a $100 win. Opinions???

Hate it. Eubanks and Cormier should win but are too juiced. If you won’t play them straight then don’t parlay them. And I think the value is on Brunson at the current price. Good luck though.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

There will be no doubts lots of juicy and nice KOs and Subs in this fight card! i am excited for it.

 

[Bestonian]

I'm fading drug addict Knight. He is training at TAM lol. I have a close source that told me Rinaldi is in very good shape and beating good guys in the gym.
Lima is a good dog to bet on
Marshman has a chance
Kelleher can win

#DogCity

'Returning the favor. Found some great value: Lewis vs DC starts round 2 at 1.71 odds. DC knows that Lewis' power is real and really doubt he is going to charge in Brunson style. Even if DC does land a takedown in round 1 I think Lewis' gastank can keep him alive for a round.

edit: not to mention DC has one r1 finish in his past 9 bouts. And that was vs Stipe.