UFC 235 Jones vs Smith

YuRikeyAmerican said:
I was initially on the Diego circle jerk due to the odds. But after watching tape on both fighters, I think Gall likely KO/TKO's Diego or rocks him and gets a sub. White landed some good bombs on Diego and I think Gall not only has more of a killer instinct than White, he's also a lot more slick on the ground. In the White fight Diego put himself into a lot of bad positions that White couldn't capitalize on due to his lack of grappling pedigree that I think Gall will be able to exploit.

With that said, I did bet Diego's ML at +190 before watching tape. I'm debating if I want to hedge this with a Gall ITD bet
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I'm in the exact opposite camp. Prior to watching tape, I was looking to bet Gall since Diego looked dreadful even against White, looking badly hurt/stunned any time White landed anything in the stand-up or hit him with upkicks. I wouldn't be surprised if he suffered 4-5 concussions during the course of that fight, even though he won it by a lopsided margin.

But watching tape on Gall, he just doesn't justify his price-tag. Wrestling has improved since his early fights but is still decidedly average, with technical mistakes. His own takedown defense isn't good, particularly in the clinch, being taken down by Randy Brown. He is oddly poor off his back, despite his BJJ background.

And while his striking has improved, we haven't seen enough of it to think he is remotely on the level of a Craig White, nevermind Matt Brown or Al Iaquinta. The jab he showed against Sullivan still sucked.

Gall's strengths are his average wrestling and pretty good BJJ, mostly from the top. Guess what the only things Diego still does at least moderately well are? Wrestling and jits.

While I wish I had bet Diego by decision at +365, I'm also passing on any of the current prices. I need a better price on an undersized, washed-up fighter with zero chin whose wrestling/jits skills are eroding as well, if not as clearly.

There are also too many unknowns here for my liking. How much has Gall's striking improved, if at all? How much worse is Diego since his last appearance?

I would be willing to take a flier at +365, but not at +200-+250.
 
Iviakavelli said:
Haha you hit them often? I'd be interested but it really brings me down when I lose a bet lol...
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If you know the fighters well enough , you can lay a very modest bet on a 2-4 fight parlay and pick up some good wins. A little harder nowadays with so many fighters, but this card is pretty common names
 
Lookin for some degen action on the first couple of fights?

Any circle jerks on Sham/Byrd Viana/Cifers?
 
Damn some movement cirk up to +150 again i put another unit on him and cirk by ko +850
Stamman down to -170 put a unit on him. And stamman ITD +950 is a little nutty had to throw a little on that
 
Iviakavelli said:
So I got:
Woodley
Zhang
Magomedsharipov
Walker

I'm quite confident in these 4 bets...
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Dude I have all 4 of these people losing. Please be careful if u plan on wasting any money on these fellas ( I literally got usman, Torres, lil heathen and misha.

Just do a complete flip and bet all the dogs and you will profit.
 
Captain Crunch28 said:
Dude I have all 4 of these people losing. Please be careful if u plan on wasting any money on these fellas ( I literally got usman, Torres, lil heathen and misha.

Just do a complete flip and bet all the dogs and you will profit.
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LOL!! Damn bro... You seemed like a cool dude... I guess our friendship wasn't meant to be. We'll stay bitter enemies to the end!
 
Fight Pass fights - last min thoughts
Viana vs Cifers - Ugh.

Mazany vs Chiasson - I think Macy is way overpriced. Mazany's overall strength and grappling have improved, and losing to Lansberg is not a bad loss imo. Lansberg is extremely strong in the clinch if nowhere else, so I am not entirely sold on Chiassen being stronger than Mazany just yet. Macy has a striking edge and is more likely to finish, but spending that juice on WMMA?

Byrd vs Edmen - I see two misconceptions. One is that Byrd is a striker first. In all the fights I see he strikes so he can enter the grappling aspect, even when he is having success on the feet. He would hurt Stewart, and then clinch. Made no sense. Every other fight he is giving up his back, and that's fine if you can eventually get back the dominant position, but I am not sure he can do that against the bigger, maybe better wrestler in Edmen.

The second misconception I see is that Edmen was near death after eating shots in the 3rd against Stewart. He got hit clean a couple times yes, but Joe Rogan was screaming like it was Fedor vs Fujita and it wasn't that at all. The Sherdog predictions even said Edmen was exhausted, almost to indicate a cardio issue, but I saw a tired fighter that gutted that fight out before receiving the misleading split decision nod (no media members gave the fight to Stewart). Edmen is younger, the bigger grappler, and he can compete on the feet where Byrd is not necessarily the most comfortable and coming off a KO.

Will try to get thoughts in on other portions of the card if possible.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
I'm in the exact opposite camp. Prior to watching tape, I was looking to bet Gall since Diego looked dreadful even against White, looking badly hurt/stunned any time White landed anything in the stand-up or hit him with upkicks. I wouldn't be surprised if he suffered 4-5 concussions during the course of that fight, even though he won it by a lopsided margin.

But watching tape on Gall, he just doesn't justify his price-tag. Wrestling has improved since his early fights but is still decidedly average, with technical mistakes. His own takedown defense isn't good, particularly in the clinch, being taken down by Randy Brown. He is oddly poor off his back, despite his BJJ background.

And while his striking has improved, we haven't seen enough of it to think he is remotely on the level of a Craig White, nevermind Matt Brown or Al Iaquinta. The jab he showed against Sullivan still sucked.

Gall's strengths are his average wrestling and pretty good BJJ, mostly from the top. Guess what the only things Diego still does at least moderately well are? Wrestling and jits.

While I wish I had bet Diego by decision at +365, I'm also passing on any of the current prices. I need a better price on an undersized, washed-up fighter with zero chin whose wrestling/jits skills are eroding as well, if not as clearly.

There are also too many unknowns here for my liking. How much has Gall's striking improved, if at all? How much worse is Diego since his last appearance?

I would be willing to take a flier at +365, but not at +200-+250.
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Doesn't the fact that Gall is so willing to stand in the pocket and trade (and has shown a good chin himself) in order to land cancel out some of his striking deficiencies? For example his fight with Sage he stood in the pocket and dropped Sage with a punch before pouncing and finishing.

Brown is an underrated grappler, but I agree Gall's willingness to work off his back and not try to stand up in that fight was concerning for anyone that would pay juice on him here. That said, he's world class. If you hang with Gordon Ryan in competitive grappling, you are legit. He doesn't have "pretty good" bjj, it's elite. Diego was an elite grappler, maybe he still has some of that left? But I'm not sure of that.
 
Captain Crunch28 said:
Dude I have all 4 of these people losing. Please be careful if u plan on wasting any money on these fellas ( I literally got usman, Torres, lil heathen and misha.

Just do a complete flip and bet all the dogs and you will profit.
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Only path to Victory for lil heathen is to knock mago out. I feel mago is a way more complete fighter than lil heathen and he will prove that tonight. I dont like torres here, her standup is no good, she has good wrestling but i feel zhang has too much power for her and zhang will control the grappling game being stronger and more agressive.
 
Bastaille said:
Only path to Victory for lil heathen is to knock mago out. I feel mago is a way more complete fighter than lil heathen and he will prove that tonight. I dont like torres here, her standup is no good, she has good wrestling but i feel zhang has too much power for her and zhang will control the grappling game being stronger and more agressive.
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Stephens can win early or survive until Zabit gets tired (he was soooo gassed against bochniak )
 
mkess101 said:
Doesn't the fact that Gall is so willing to stand in the pocket and trade (and has shown a good chin himself) in order to land cancel out some of his striking deficiencies? For example his fight with Sage he stood in the pocket and dropped Sage with a punch before pouncing and finishing.
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Gall hit a clumsy overhand right that glanced off the side of Sage's head. Most guys would have shrugged it off, but Sage's chin sucks, and he was hit to begin with because he was holding his hands very low to defend against the shot, as Gall was easily taking him down time and again.

That's the sole higlight of Gall's striking in the UFC, and it's still a long way from what we've seen by Craig White, nevermind Brown or Iaquinta.

mkess101 said:
That said, he's world class. If you hang with Gordon Ryan in competitive grappling, you are legit. He doesn't have "pretty good" bjj, it's elite. Diego was an elite grappler, maybe he still has some of that left? But I'm not sure of that.
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How do we know Gall can hang with Ryan in competitive grappling? Hype from his own camp? Nevermind that "avoiding being subbed in gi grappling" is completely different from effective no-gi grappling in MMA.

I just go based off what I see. Last week we heard stories about how Veronica Macedo is a BJJ brown belt and has won European submission tournaments. She looked lousy on the ground, no more than a legit blue belt, and was subbed by an aggressive purple belt with holes in her own grappling game.

So yeah, Gall's jits is "pretty good" at a UFC level, which is nothing to sneeze at, but I've seen nothing to suggest he is world-class or will have any advantage over Diego in that regard.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Gall hit a clumsy overhand right that glanced off the side of Sage's head. Most guys would have shrugged it off, but Sage's chin sucks, and he was hit to begin with because he was holding his hands very low to defend against the shot, as Gall was easily taking him down time and again.

That's the sole higlight of Gall's striking in the UFC, and it's still a long way from what we've seen by Craig White, nevermind Brown or Iaquinta.



How do we know Gall can hang with Ryan in competitive grappling? Hype from his own camp? Nevermind that "avoiding being subbed in gi grappling" is completely different from effective no-gi grappling in MMA.

I just go based off what I see. Last week we heard stories about how Veronica Macedo is a BJJ brown belt and has won European submission tournaments. She looked lousy on the ground, no more than a legit blue belt, and was subbed by an aggressive purple belt with holes in her own grappling game.

So yeah, Gall's jits is "pretty good" at a UFC level, which is nothing to sneeze at, but I've seen nothing to suggest he is world-class or will have any advantage over Diego in that regard.
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Sage's chin is better than Diego's now by far. I think Gall only hit one (maybe two?) TD's prior to landing that shot on Sage iirc.

I do agree MMA grappling is different, but my reference to Gall vs Ryan wasn't some sort of conjecture...

 
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