UFC 235 Jones vs Smith

burge13 said:
Usman hedged with Woodley KO or Wood 1-2 surely the way to go if you're one to hedge?

Usman is more active so should pick up rounds; my query is whether Wood can fold him early. I think he can tbh
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True. Woodley could definitely take his head off, but I'd cap Usman like -150.

grappler4200 said:
Johnnie walker fade time???????
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Cirkunov has a massive grappling/wrestling edge.
 
Gugabe said:
True. Woodley could definitely take his head off, but I'd cap Usman like -150.
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I was thinking pick em tbh so still value on Usman but I don't cap him favourite. He can't finish fights, this is a big step up etc. He has cardio edge, maybe wrestling but I think Wood can nullify it making it largely awash. If he was tenacious enough to get finishes, I'd agree with the -150 but he is the epitome of boring, to the point I think the ref will separate them giving woodley more chances at the kill shot
 
grappler4200 said:
I agree with you completely. I am just concerned that that one trick is Robbie's weakness. Not sure if he will have the space to outstrike askren to win 2 of three rounds, thus degrading a Robbie win to ko or bust. I find it to be a losing roi position more often than not in that case. I'm eager for a good spot to fade askren, just not sure this is it.
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Right, robbie could lose a dec but I like his chances to ko askren at those odds.
 
Which direction do you think Munhoz +160 & Cirkunov +145 will move?
 
cberasi said:
Which direction do you think Munhoz +160 & Cirkunov +145 will move?
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I'm on both. I think Cirkunov will move down but I don't know with Munhoz. Honestly, I love this card for betting. Byrd at + odds is great too.
 
theTKDguy said:
Right, robbie could lose a dec but I like his chances to ko askren at those odds.
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Yeah I don't think Robbie is a terrible bet, there is a little value. Just at +225 the implied probability is 30.77%. I would likely cap it between 30-40% without watching tape yet. That's why I give a pretty wide range there. If I do decide around 40 I would probably take a stand. At 35% there is a little value, but the thing about it is you probably don't find enough plays in that range in order for the variance to play out to make it worth it for me.
 
A few leans:

Lawler vs Askren: Lawler all day... specially at those odds.

Woodley vs Usman: Pretty much as everybody said. Usman eats too many shots sometimes but he can outcardio Woodley. Dog or pass for me.

Diego vs Gall: Diego is beyond shot but Gall is a bum. Sanchez has never been submitted and his top control is still awesome. Mickey never beat anyone good.
 
Unless Cirk loses all fight IQ or Walker lands one of his crazy low percentage moves then he should win easily. Got 3.5u at +162 and will put more on ITD.
 
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Gugabe said:
How long can Woodley's cardio last? IMO Woodley's essentially got to hit a walkoff KO in the first 2 rounds or he's gonna get worn down and gas hard.
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Well that’s kind of the question. Until Woodley gases Usman is in danger... and to tax his gas tank Usman is going to have to constantly wade into more danger, otherwise Woodley can conserve himself ala Wonderboy. If Usman survives and manages to gas Woodley then Tyron is in serious serious trouble. Just seems like a dart throw to gas which happens.
 
Who the fuck is betting Mickey Gall at these odds. This is one of the most winnable fights for Diego on the entire roster.
 
Stunna77 said:
Who the fuck is betting Mickey Gall at these odds. This is one of the most winnable fights for Diego on the entire roster.
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While true his chances are still shit. The man is a shell of his former self
 
I think that Woodley's cardio as a critical flaw is exaggeration. When is the last time it even came close to costing him a fight?
 
AZ103 said:
While true his chances are still shit. The man is a shell of his former self
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Strongly disagree here regarding his chances of winning being shit. Diego is a shell and his durability is obviously faded and a huge concern. That said, Gall has shown very limited striking, a terrible habit of backing straight up and covering up when pressured, and no get ups from his back. Also showed poor cardio after two rounds of grappling with Brown. If Diego still had his durability I would cap him -300 here given his strong pressure game, takedowns, heavy top control and overall grappling skills. Given his lack of durability I think it's a pick 'em. Gall has beaten no one of note, and certainly no one who has close to the wrestling/grappling of Diego.
 
OutRun said:
I think that Woodley's cardio as a critical flaw is exaggeration. When is the last time it even came close to costing him a fight?
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When's the last time someone has put a pace on him?
 
Stunna77 said:
When's the last time someone has put a pace on him?
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He perfectly defended 21 takedowns against Maia, and wrestling is probably the single most exhausting aspect of MMA. Till tried to pressure him and got extinguished a minute later.
It's been a while since I've rewatched Gastelum vs Woodley, but Gastelum has good cardio and Woodley still won that one handily.
 
Stunna77 said:
When's the last time someone has put a pace on him?
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Guys can’t properly pressure him bc he is too much of a power threat

Usman looked flinchy vs RDA strikes. Don’t think he’s gonna wanna push too hard of a tempo vs Woodley once he feels his hands
 
Lol

I actually think Diego should be close to even money
 
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