UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

lifeisgood12345 said:
Can anybody explain why Imadaev is a fave vs Griffin? All I see are a bunch of KO's vs cans, is there some piece of info about him that I am missing that generates so much hype? Are people just assuming he's the next Khabib bc he's from Chechnya? I don't get it.
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He is an allrounder, has power and trains with a good team as the way younger fighter. I took a 1u shot because betting Griffin as a favourite is not smart (now he is the dog). He can always win a round but he can also throw a fight away or make it so close that he loses a decision like last time.

Despite that Max‘ wrestling is suspect as fuck. Even if Zelim loses standing, he can still go for takedowns, so there are more ways to win for him.

Imadaev is still a mystery but I‘m willing to take a shot on a young chechen underdog. He will fight for my money at least and he will improve from fight to fight. I thought Montel Jackson was a bum crusher with shitty kicks until I saw him in the UFC and he looked very promising. He also finished a veteran who was way better on paper. It’s a gamble with these young fighters tbh. They either come out like tanks or they take their first L. Max Griffin is Max Griffin. We know what we will get and at this point he will rather get worse than better.
 
Oblivian said:
Well I'm obviously not saying everyone betting on Belal is just going off recency bias. But I mean it's pretty obvious that the harsh critiques of Millender from a large majority of the forum show the recency bias. It's a way different stylistic matchup, but all of the critiques I'm seeing now would without a doubt apply to the Zaleski fight. The general critique is a god awful ground game and poor TDD. If people truly had this opinion prior, why would you bet Millender against someone like Zaleski who can easily finish him on the ground? With these critiques from the majority of the forum, you'd think most would have bet Zaleski or at least avoided betting Millender.

You've been around this forum for a while. Recency bias is not unusual on here. You see a lot of bettors who get burned by someone and they almost take it personal. Recency bias may also end up being justified in the long run. I can say with almost certainty that Millender/Belal's line would look differently if the Zaleski fight did not occur.
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I’m not betting on belal. I just don’t see any reason to bet on millender. Of course he can win, his striking is on point. I just see a big risk. His ground game hasn’t improved much since he was getting held down by journeymen in bellator. I look for less dangerous opportunities. Gl with picks
 
Rickson said:
Imadaev is still a mystery but I‘m willing to take a shot on a young chechen underdog. He will fight for my money at least and he will improve from fight to fight. I thought Montel Jackson was a bum crusher with shitty kicks until I saw him in the UFC and he looked very promising. He also finished a veteran who was way better on paper. It’s a gamble with these young fighters tbh. They either come out like tanks or they take their first L. Max Griffin is Max Griffin. We know what we will get and at this point he will rather get worse than better.
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I think you make solid arguments for just passing on this fight...
 
csufwrestler said:
I’m not betting on belal. I just don’t see any reason to bet on millender. Of course he can win, his striking is on point. I just see a big risk. His ground game hasn’t improved much since he was getting held down by journeymen in bellator. I look for less dangerous opportunities. Gl with picks
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Thinking about fading this one, and Griffin vs Ismaidev as well. Either side in each fight don’t feel like a good pick to me. I like Bellal but to get him, I would be looking for at least + odds, as a favorite with a bit of juice on the line. Hmmm think I’ll pass.
 
Oblivian said:
Does anyone see Gastelum potentially looking to get Izzy down and snag the back? His RNCs are quick.
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It's possible, but he hasn't completed a takedown since the Magny fight in 2015 and he hasn't even attempted one in his current MW run. Granted wrestling offensively against guys like Kennedy, Weidman, Jacare and Hendricks wouldn't really make sense for him and the Vitor/Bisping fights ended quickly. I guess I wouldn't be surprised to see it here, but I can't count on it.

My initial lean was Isreal, but looking at it some more, this is a tricky one to figure out imo.
 
What about St Preux vs Krylov? I initially liked Krylov + money, now at evens think I’m siding St Preux, I think he is more durable, and more efficient than Krylov I also question a lot Krylov's fight IQ, seems to me like a good spot to go small, so 0.5 units on st Preux @-110, thoughts?
 
LeskoJohnson said:
What about St Preux vs Krylov? I initially liked Krylov + money, now at evens think I’m siding St Preux, I think he is more durable, and more efficient than Krylov I also question a lot Krylov's fight IQ, seems to me like a good spot to go small, so 0.5 units on st Preux @-110, thoughts?
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That fight strikes me as a dog or pass situation. No one on earth knows what OSP will show up, not even the man himself.

Lesko, with your brazilian angle, what's your take on Botelho? Don't see what Mueller has to offer really. Botelho is better everywhere, no?
 
Papi said:
Boston has better boxing. But i think Taha is more diverse, explosive. And seems more athletic. Without the threat of the td he will unload more of a varied attack. Also boston coming off almost 2 year layoff. Im currently passing but if line does widen like you predict i will be on Taha for .5u or maybe even 1u.
Also Bostons output is pretty low he could lose a decision even though hes landing more crisper strikes in the pocket Taha might just be more active and judges could favorite it his way
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Taha did a camp at Tristar last year after his debut loss and has been training there for a month now to prepare for this fight. I know nothing about Salmon, but I think I’ll degen bet Taha for half a unit for fun.
 
Max Holloway has fairly short arms relative to his height.

He is listed at 5'11" and has a 69 inch reach.

For some perspective, Poirier is listed at 5'9" and has a 72 inch reach.

McGregor is 5'9" and has a 74 inch reach.

Jose Aldo is 5'7" with a 70 inch reach.

I'm still going to be max betting him if the line inproves enough
 
Soccer Steve said:
Had a quick scan of comments here, sorry if I missed it, but didn't really see too much on what Adesanya backers say to Gas being an immense step up for him. Does his style still outweigh that for you? Because Gas is indeed a huge leap up for him. (Anderson doesn't count, I think we can all agree.)
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Stylebender proved himself to me in fighting Tavares and Brunson who are both dangerous. Granted Brunson isn't the greatest striker and he telegraphs his punches but nonetheless he is still dangerous. Tavares presents similar challenges as Gastelum. Both guys are thick and punch hard. I am not saying they are identical but Adesanya showed he knows how to manage range and win the fight. I am not just looking at Adesanya as an undefeated fighter but I am looking at how he wins. He doesn't get himself into bad position or allow himself to get clipped. He manages range really well which is the deciding factor. Anything can happen since it is a fight but I am happy backing Adesanya hard here come what may.
 
edole said:
Max Holloway has fairly short arms relative to his height.

He is listed at 5'11" and has a 69 inch reach.

For some perspective, Poirier is listed at 5'9" and has a 72 inch reach.

McGregor is 5'9" and has a 74 inch reach.

Jose Aldo is 5'7" with a 70 inch reach.

I'm still going to be max betting him if the line inproves enough
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Shoulder width. Max doesn't have short arms he's just a skinny guy.
 
LeskoJohnson said:
What about St Preux vs Krylov? I initially liked Krylov + money, now at evens think I’m siding St Preux, I think he is more durable, and more efficient than Krylov I also question a lot Krylov's fight IQ, seems to me like a good spot to go small, so 0.5 units on st Preux @-110, thoughts?
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Took a shot on Krylov +130 as I think OSP is on a decline. He got by purely on his athleticism and size, but that athleticism is fading and he has no structure to his game. Think he has regressed since the first fight and has been dropped/rocked in his last three.
 
Soccer Steve said:
That fight strikes me as a dog or pass situation. No one on earth knows what OSP will show up, not even the man himself.

Lesko, with your brazilian angle, what's your take on Botelho? Don't see what Mueller has to offer really. Botelho is better everywhere, no?
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Yeah, think OSP vs Krylov will be another fight I will be fading this card. And about botelho vs mueller, I have a different view. I think Poliana is too hitable, and doesn’t have much of a ground game. I think mueller might win a close decision due to having better cardio, and putting more volume. I think it will be a close fight, and Poliana should be the favorite but I would cap her around @-125(not @-160). I think @+140 mueller might have a little bit of value, I actually got her for 0.4 units.
 
Stunna77 said:
Took a shot on Krylov +130 as I think OSP is on a decline. He got by purely on his athleticism and size, but that athleticism is fading and he has no structure to his game. Think he has regressed since the first fight and has been dropped/rocked in his last three.
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Yeah, I think now the line is correct at evens, this fight really feels like a flip, so I think there’s value getting any side + odds, I still have a book with Krylov @+110, I will be getting 0.5 units, I think after watching tape he’s the best side if you are going to choose any.
 
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