The Quintessential Guide to Cerrone vs Ferguson - at least my take on it anyway
We pretty much know exactly what Ferguson is going to do to a degree, he’ll have a slowish half a round or so before steadily applying pressure walking forward throwing a variety of kicks, punches, elbows etc. His defence won’t be great and contrary to what some believe I think its incredibly unlikely he uses his wrestling offensively. Cerrone has great TDD and the last time Ferguson actually hit a legit TD was a bodylock slam on a rocked Kikuno in 2014.
The first question is how, or can, Cerrone deal with that pressure, fortunately he too is quite predictable. Looking at many of Cerrone’s recent fights people have tried similar gameplans to what Ferguson most likely will, marching forward swinging and trying to overwhelm Cerrone. In different fights Cerrone has used different tactics individually or combined to counter this. Against Yancy, Cerrone kept his composure and countered with hard straight shots up the middle landing his right hand repeatedly and getting a R1 TKO. Against Hernandez he did similar but actively pushed Hernandez onto the backfoot and additionally hit a reactive double leg, he also threw knees up the middle as Hernandez ducked in. With Lawler he got into a clinch battle (which Lawler happily got into) before timing another reactive shot and getting Lawler down for half a round later into the second he also aggressively came forward putting Lawler on the backfoot especially in the second round. So essentially Cerrone’s counters to pressure are reactive TD’s, linear strikes (knees and punches mainly) and then clinching.
Then the question is how Tony deal with all those counters. Tony does have good wrestling, but he has tendencies that make me think Cerrone should have success getting him down and racking up top control time. Tony overextends often and has a narrow stance leaving himself open to reactive shots that Cerrone goes for heavily. He also throws teeps and low kicks that can easily be countered (Barboza got him down twice like this) leaving him open for a Frankie Edgar style kneetap TD which is what Cerrone used to get down Lawler. Then comes the second issue of Tony being far too happy off his back, he’s played guard often, doing it against Lee, Thomson, Pettis, Trujillo and others. Against Thomson especially he rocked him badly only to attempt some sort of awkward flying triangle. Cerrone has excellent BJJ and a solid top game, I can easily see him passing Tony’s guard (Lee mounted him) and having success on top enough to win rounds.
As for the striking we’ve seen Tony rocked or dropped how many times now? Pettis made the fight with Tony very competitive by mostly just throwing right hands over and over up the middle. Even guys like Kikuno had very early success doing similar. Johnson, Trujillo and Vannata also notably dropped him. And of course if Tony leaves himself open for it like he did with Vannata, Cerrone has a very quick high kicks from either leg that’ll drop anybody. I know a lot of people support Tony’s unorthodox striking and its certainly entertaining, but poor defence catches up to everyone eventually and Tony’s come close multiple times to getting finished.
Finally in the clinch I think it is quite even although I do favour slightly Cerrone. Both guys have good strikes, and Tony’s elbows are nasty but Cerrone is better positionally with underhooks, collar ties etc. and Cerrone’s slight height advantage will help. I’d think Cerrone likely avoids this, so he doesn’t get cut up as past opponents have vs Tony, although it is an option for him to tie up Tony as he comes in or off of failed or faked TD’s like he did vs Lawler. These faked shots are somewhat risky as Tony has a great front headlock which he will likely try and snatch if Cerrone is too slow.
Overall, I think it’s a fairly even fight, I feel Cerrone is more likely to finish as Tony is more open to being finished grappling and striking. Cerrone getting subbed from guard would be very surprising and, on the feet, Tony is unlikely to rock Cerrone or overwhelm him late as Cerrone has excellent cardio. Overall, I’d favour Tony slightly but would only cap him around -125 putting the value on Cerrone. I'm also interested in Cerrone NSC and Tony Dec lines as these could have a lot of value.
