UFC 242 Khabib vs Poirier

[Deleted member 560591]

Playing down Taisumov because of the Green or Prazeres fights isn’t right. Des Green doesn’t move forward, doesn’t throw much and he is super awkward. No one looks really good against him.

As mentioned before the Prazeres fight was years ago and Taisumov was indeed ill in that fight. Despite that Tractor is way stronger and has better wrestling than Carlos.

Comparing both fighters‘ wins, there isn’t that gigantic difference. Beckan ko‘d Patrick, Hadzovic & beat Des Green. Not the best wins but they’re are decent for sure. There have been way worse win streaks in the UFC.

CDF beat OAM (who never wins when he can’t rely on his grappling), Jared Gordon (kicked him in the nuts twice tbf lol) & Khabilov (showed that he is declining before that especially in the Kajan fight).

Of course CDF has a better resume but it’s not crazily better imo. The matchup and styles are important and it does look like a better fight for Mairbek.

 

[Jordan3399]

I mean he got 30-25'ed against the Tractor, I don't think you can really look much worse and not get finished... Des Green isn't a bum, sure, but he's not CDF either, he's just awkward and long but also loses everytime he takes a step up in competition.

Like I said, if the fight stays standing I agree CDF loses that fight, but it's not like CDF has no striking, or hasn't improved, his output has increased he's got the better experience against the better guys too.

I don't favour CDF to win, but the fight is certainly more competitive than the odds reflect... And obviously it's possible Taisumov one bombs him early but that can happen to anyone

He got 30-25'd cause of stupid point deductions not cause he got wrecked you can certainly lose a decision a lot worse. Especially given the opponent and how sick he was.

Not sure how you can say CDF is significantly better than Green if at all. CDF also got smashed when he faced a step up in competition with Dariush and Poirier. If you're just MMA mathing it as CDF>Khabilov>Green then you need to check out Khabilov Green as that was a very sketchy judges decision in Russia.

Also if you're actually saying if the fight stays standing then CDF loses, idk what you are doing saying the line is wide. In a pure striking match Taisumov should be like -400. He's better everywhere and levels above in technique, power, experience etc. CDF has volume but thats cause he just walks forward recklessly throwing with poor defence. That might work against low volume, low power counter strikers like Khabilov well but Taisumov is totally different.

 

[Red_2]

Khabib by decision is a circlejerk. Don't see it happening guys. The value isn't there.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Arbing down my KGB Lee play. Got a feeling.

 

[ApplesVild]

He got 30-25'd cause of stupid point deductions not cause he got wrecked you can certainly lose a decision a lot worse. Especially given the opponent and how sick he was.

Not sure how you say CDF is significantly better than Green if at all. CDF also got smashed when he faced a step up in competition with Dariush and Poirier. If you're just MMA mathing it as CDF>Khabilov>Green then you need to check out Khabilov Green as that was a very sketchy judges decision in Russia.

Also if you're actually saying if the fight stays standing then CDF loses, idk what you are doing saying the line is wide. In a pure striking match Taisumov should be like -400. He's better everywhere and levels above in technique, power, experience etc. CDF has volume but thats cause he just walks forward recklessly throwing with poor defence. That might work against low volume, low power counter strikers like Khabilov well but Taisumov is totally different.

I mean if you're in there repeatedly grabbing the cage in an attempt to stop getting taken down yet again that is kind of a valid reason to deduct a point. I mean yeah he had the flu, he had a injury, it was a little too chilly in the arena, that's just whatever. Every fighter has an issue with an injury, or whatever else it may be, going into a fight so I'm not going to put too much stock into that, which may also be hearsay.

I would say CDF is better than Green because Des isn't a specialist in any one area, he's just average everywhere, where as CDF is very dangerous and accomplished on the ground.

And the line is wide because there is nothing to say the fight will stay standing, it's an MMA fight not a kick boxing bout. Shit, Taisumov could slip over and end up on his back. It's not impossible for the fight to end up on the ground one way or another.

 

[Jordan3399]

I mean if you're in there repeatedly grabbing the cage in an attempt to stop getting taken down yet again that is kind of a valid reason to deduct a point. I mean yeah he had the flu, he had a injury, it was a little too chilly in the arena, that's just whatever. Every fighter has an issue with an injury, or whatever else it may be, going into a fight so I'm not going to put too much stock into that, which may also be hearsay.

I would say CDF is better than Green because Des isn't a specialist in any one area, he's just average everywhere, where as CDF is very dangerous and accomplished on the ground.

And the line is wide because there is nothing to say the fight will stay standing, it's an MMA fight not a kick boxing bout. Shit, Taisumov could slip over and end up on his back. It's not impossible for the fight to end up on the ground one way or another.

So you think Taisumov wins in a striking match but because he could slip over you think CDF should have at least a 35% chance at winning? That makes no sense. If it goes to the ground it's most likely cause CDF has been dropped.

Sounds like you're trying to talk yourself into betting a guy just cause he's overall half decent fighter thats a significant underdog not cause there is any actual solid argument for him being favoured more than the odds suggest.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Question: is anyone on JoJo?

 

[ApplesVild]

So you think Taisumov wins in a striking match but because he could slip over you think CDF should have at least a 35% chance at winning? That makes no sense. If it goes to the ground it's most likely cause CDF has been dropped.

Sounds like you're trying to talk yourself into betting a guy just cause he's overall half decent fighter thats a significant underdog not cause there is any actual solid argument for him being favoured more than the odds suggest.

CDF can land strikes, CDF can get takedowns, these things can happen.

 

[Sono07]

Andrade had a better line at least. I think Khabib is on the way to be the GOAT but he needs 2-3 A level wins and at this point I rate Poirier higher than Conor, so I want to see him this one first.

This isn’t very objective and rational but the main events this year had more upsets than favourites winning if I’m not wrong. I’m also scared about these AKA champions always getting knocked out when people expect it the least lol. It’s probably better to stay away.

I could get that but it takes more than a title fight and nice odds to get my action especially in wmma. Can't fault ya for playing numbers I'm sure we have different strategies. As a fan I'm big on Dustin, guys life sounds like a great underdog story. Personal bias I'm sure, as I definitely share more in common. About the same age from a similar area ect but I even find his style more entertaining. I see by the way you spell favourite vs my lack of U we may not share that geographic similarity lol. Despite all that I don't see any clear paths for Poirier as much as I'd love the upset. He has almost every disadvantage I can see and getting -350 for a probability of ~78% still felt like value when I'd give DP a 10-15% chance even though thats long since gone. If the AKA thing was a shot at DC he was facing a big dog who won me a small parlay. Couldn't go big against him but DC gave up height, reach, age and the more skilled fighter doesn't always get the W .

 

[zeckdo]

Podcast

Madge-Ziam, dog or pass, GTD +150 is interesting. Closer fight than people think, striking should be competitive, wrestling edge to Ziam, BJJ edge to Madge.

Cummings-Omari, gonna be a low output, sloppy decision, pass.

Salikhov-Taleb, Taleb has better volume, big reach and height advantage, but I still don't trust him as a favorite. His chin and fight IQ are trash, I think Salikhov finds the chin and gets the ko. but if it goes to cards, Taleb should win.

Muhammed should dominate Sato, besides a rd 1 straight left hand ko, Belal should roll. Belal -3.5 or sub prop will be interesting.

Jojua should win a decision, but it's dog or pass. Jojua's tdd isn't very good, long layoff, and Moras has decent takedowns and top control. Jojua probably loses rd 1, live bet will be interesting.

Azaitar sucks, but he's good enough to beat Packalen, who sucks even more. Value on Pack +2xx

Zubaria isn't good. His technique is sloppy, he relies on muscle and power. Murphy is the better striker. Happy to bet Murphy +3xx, even with the short notice I'd cap Murphy +200.

Lee dominates JoJo. Especially in the clinch. Happy with my Lee ML opener bet at -165

I think Taisumov showed some decline vs Green, CDF looked better than ever vs Khabilov. It's going to be difficult for CDF to outstrike Taisumov, but he has the better volume, aggression and ground game, so happy to be him +2xx.

Huge value on Shamil. huge. The striking should be competitive, maybe even slight edge to Shamil. Shamil has decent wrestling base too, I don't think Blaydes will get td's easily. Shamil did get taken down vs Arlo briefly, not a good sign, but I think Shamil will be the better striker by a wider margin than people anticipate. I think Shamil is worth at least a half unit value stab. maybe even full unit.

I bet half unit on Ramos opener thinking there was value. There's not. Besides a reckless get up from Islam that exposes a back take, Islam is the better MMA fighter in every aspect besides submissions. (He did do that vs Tsark, but I think he knew Tsark wasn't a back taker)

I think Felder is more likely to make improvements from the first fight. He has gotten much better while Barboza has declined. Felder should be smart enough to pressure this time instead of stay at kicking range. Haven't made the bet yet, but I think there's value on him +135.

Predicting Khabib 48-47 decision. Value on Poirier ML. Really didn't like what I saw from Dustin on bottom vs Eddie. Sure it came because of those idiotic jumping guillotines. But if Alvarez was able to mount Poirier, imagine what Khabib will do. I think it will be a dog fight. Khabib wins 1 and 2. Poirier wins 3 and 4, Khabib comes back and wins 5.

I expand on all of these thoughts on this week's podcast. Check it out.

 

[ApplesVild]

Shamil got took down and finished by Derek Lewis and Tim Johnson also

 

[Sono07]

Arbing down my KGB Lee play. Got a feeling.

Why, did Calderwood figure out how to keep her tongue in her mouth to avoid performing like a dog?

Question: is anyone on JoJo?

Jokes aside no, I can't see how she wins. She has decent footwork, some sharp kicks, and good trips but I don't think they'll help here. Told myself I'd never bet on Lee again after she got grounded a few too many time last fight. After a rewatching she fought a smart well rounded game plan showed an educated ground game her self and put in work. Where as JoJo got worked by someone who looked like they didn't work nearly as hard. Boxing, size, pressure, cardio, ground game, maybe even her kicking I'd give to Lee. This is wmma after though probably a 10-20% variance either way. At least she isn't giving up a size and striking advantage like last week's sherdog femme fatale

 

[Xuh]

Arbing down my KGB Lee play. Got a feeling.

no you don't

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Why, did Calderwood figure out how to keep her tongue in her mouth to avoid performing like a dog?


Jokes aside no, I can't see how she wins. She has decent footwork, some sharp kicks, and good trips but I don't think they'll help here. Told myself I'd never bet on Lee again after she got grounded a few too many time last fight. After a rewatching she fought a smart well rounded game plan showed an educated ground game her self and put in work. Where as JoJo got worked by someone who looked like they didn't work nearly as hard. Boxing, size, pressure, cardio, ground game, maybe even her kicking I'd give to Lee. This is wmma after though probably a 10-20% variance either way. At least she isn't giving up a size and striking advantage like last week's sherdog femme fatale

My gambling sense are tingling. I got a bad vibe when I found out KGB was training for this fight with an instagram thot that has the fakest boobs on the roster.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

no you don't

Is dis a threat?

 

[theTKDguy]

Poirier is tempting me more and more

Flying knee 2 incoming?

 

[ill800]

So espn+ decided to work for me today and I watched akhmedov and Cummings last fight

I’m still not sold on akhmedovs cardio. He was slowing and taking deep breaths in round 3 vs boetsch who really didn’t push any kind of pace.

I’m not confident on either side here. I think it’s 50/50 and I lean Cummings. I’m not putting my money on a guy who historically has not even one full round of cardio

I may just play a few props here

 

[ill800]

I’m also not as confident as most of our sherbrehs on kgb.

The striking is even. Lee has an edge grappling. She really doesn’t have great takedowns and I’m not so sure she can consistently get it to the ground

At -165 I would’ve been a buyer. Line is too wide now

Shamil is at +400

#gamblenati

I may add more to Murphy. Line is dropping a bit. People starting to realize the Russian name hasn’t fought in three years and doesn’t use his wrestling

 

[ill800]

Moras should probably be a slight favorite and she’s still sitting at +130

I mean I know she’s bad and all and is on a losing streak but she’s a much better grappler than anyone Jojua has ever seen

Not sure what she’s done to warrant being a favorite

 

[Xuh]

Moras should probably be a slight favorite and she’s still sitting at +130

I mean I know she’s bad and all and is on a losing streak but she’s a much better grappler than anyone Jojua has ever seen

I think it's worth bringing up that Jojua's last opponent was a big-time sambo champ that FNG were trying to push as the 'Russian Sambo Ronda' to get some of that rub at the time. She'd finished all opponents by rd 1 sub and it was supposed to be another squash match, ended up being a pretty big upset (which gave Jojua some hype/attention that ultimately lead to the UFC I guess) and FNG immediately lost interest in the div lol.

So I wouldn't say Moras is better at grappling or at least certainly not on some other planet to what Jojua has seen. I felt Mokhnatkina looked good enough skill wise in that fight and her subsequent Bellator match, but she has terrible cardio which was a major factor in the Jojua fight (& gassed in rd 1 in Bellator and was bent double gasping for air a la Kimbo/Houston by the end of that fight) and it's evident that spamming footlocks has a pretty low ceiling even in regional WMMA.

I did bet a little on Moras at her opener (well, and where she is now on some other accounts but I think the value is questionable now) because Jojua hasn't really shown anything other then adequate cardio and an ability to not get submitted too easily, plus she .... er.... doesn't look like an athlete.
Moras hasn't shown much offensive skill either (other than pulling the odd sub out of her ample butt) but she has somehow stuck around in the UFC this long which is worth something at least. Plus moving to America to train is a little encouraging at least.