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UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

jrleclerc88 said:
do you agree he looks to have some good size on him/good shape? moving well?
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Looks good from the little I saw there, probably ecstatic to not be injured for the moment. Should have height and size on Cejudo for what that is worth. Better footwork likely, but not sure about speed though.
 
Fyi, Tapology list Cejudo with a 67.5in reach and Cruz at 68in, but UFC list Cejudo at 64in
 
jrleclerc88 said:
Marlon was beating henrys ass before he gassed. Cruz looks to be in respectable shape and i dont think he will has. If you think henry is a lock you havent been paying attention
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i dont. I have Cruz by decision
 
BigSteve said:
He wades in and out, bouncing on his toes, faints and strikes when an opening is presented. Its a massive difference to plodding forward flat footed with a high guard and no head movement, eating shots in the pocket and returning them.
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this is the more eloquent version of what I meant to say.
 
Anybody subscribe to sportsline and have Kyle Marley's picks? Just curious as to what his write ups are.
Also since we were able to summons Mkess, can we get Sadistics up in this piece as well!? This fight is so close yet so far away lol
 
If I had any money left

It would be going on Justin by KO


If you’re still working, even if you’re not bet the welfare cheque and hook a brother up

Im always right when I predict fights and can’t bet it myself

then I sit there imagining what I would have done with the money.

fuckin China
 
Cowboy in an interview with Brett Okomoto the other day said that in the Conor fight he was rocked within the first three seconds when he shot in and hit his head on Conor's hip... How can you trust that man with your money? TKO'ed by walking into someone's hip bone

I know, I know, all the Cowboy fans will be in to tell me how the hip strike is under rated and very powerful and it's how they execute prisoners in North Korea or whatever, save it...

Cowboy can't take damage, he got rocked by a hip strike and a shoulder bang, in the same fight! Someone out there is going to finish him with their ball bag or a taint strike or something, stun him with an eyelid flutter
 
2020Tracked said:
Cowboy in an interview with Brett Okomoto the other day said that in the Conor fight he was rocked within the first three seconds when he shot in and hit his head on Conor's hip... How can you trust that man with your money? TKO'ed by walking into someone's hip bone

I know, I know, all the Cowboy fans will be in to tell me how the hip strike is under rated and very powerful and it's how they execute prisoners in North Korea or whatever, save it...

Cowboy can't take damage, he got rocked by a hip strike and a shoulder bang, in the same fight! Someone out there is going to finish him with their ball bag or a taint strike or something, stun him with an eyelid flutter
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I just watched that same interview earlier tonight and besides what you just mentioned there was another big red flag right in the beginning of the interview. He said that he "couldn't get excited, couldn't get fired up, didn't want to be there". And then goes on to say he doesn't know why or how to change that. So if he couldn't get up for the fight of his life vs Conor, how the fuck can he be trusted anymore vs anyone else moving forward? His drive is highly questionable and it seems like he's just in it for the paychecks now. Everyone shit on stephen a smith when he said this right after the fight, but he was right.
 
Cerrone is done, dont bet this guy.

Dogs I bet for this event are Rozenstriuk and Waterson.
 
Cruz decision is tempting, I just find it hard to bet on him after being out of the ring for so long. He may not believe ring rust is real but I do.
 
2020Tracked said:
Cowboy in an interview with Brett Okomoto the other day said that in the Conor fight he was rocked within the first three seconds when he shot in and hit his head on Conor's hip... How can you trust that man with your money? TKO'ed by walking into someone's hip bone
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Not that I disagree, but Cerrone's head hit Mcgregor's thigh, not hip, while Conor was moving forward

SingleUnripeLeafbird-size_restricted.gif


Basically fluke weird knee strike that landed.
 
Such a weird fight from Cerrone. You can see him go to grab a single leg after the knee/thigh and almost change his mind. Then he pushes forward with a lazy clinch and just kinda stands there waiting on Conor.

Maybe he was really rocked that bad but still. After the first shoulder strike or two he did little more than look offended and confused. Personally I think the only place Cerrone was prepared to show up to last time was the bank. Tempted to find a prop but both Cowboy and Pettis can be more flaky grandma's biscuits.
 
matthew55 said:
Anybody subscribe to sportsline and have Kyle Marley's picks? Just curious as to what his write ups are.
Also since we were able to summons Mkess, can we get Sadistics up in this piece as well!? This fight is so close yet so far away lol
Click to expand...

Tony Ferguson (-170) vs. Justin Gaethje (+150): Ferguson via TKO

This fight should be high-paced and bloody. I think the early rounds will be close, and I could even see Gaethje gaining the edge and being the one pressing forward. I think he is going to need to knock out Ferguson to get the win, because I don't see him being able to go five hard rounds at his pace. The longer this fight goes, the more it will shift into Ferguson's favor. I see Gaethje maybe winning rounds 1 and 2, and then Ferguson picking up the pace as Gaethje slows down. Then I think Ferguson finishes him in the championship rounds. I would say Gaethje might be the better wrestler, but Ferguson has the better grappling ability and is more dangerous on the ground. This should be a great fight for as long as it lasts.

Henry Cejudo (-240) vs. Dominick Cruz (+200): Cejudo via decision

This is a tough one to call because Cruz hasn't fought since 2016 so we don't know what to expect from him. In that time, Cejudo has won belts in the 125 and the 135-pound divisions and sis looking like he is in his prime. With Cruz now being 35 and coming off multiple injuries, I have to think he has slowed down a bit. He is still one of the best 135-pound fighters of all-time and I think this will be a pretty close fight. I have to lean with Cejudo, but I would not lay -200 or steeper on him.

Francis Ngannou (-270) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+230): Ngannou via TKO

It could only take one shot from either of these guys to end this fight. Ngannou may be the scariest man alive and has more power, but Rozenstruik is the more well-rounded striker and could win a decision or get a KO of his own. I think Ngannou could even look for takedowns or a submission. I think the most likely outcome is that Ngannou gets a KO finish.

Calvin Kattar (-245) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+205): Kattar via unanimous decision

I think Kattar is the more technical striker, and I see him using his boxing and leg kicks to pick Stephens apart over the course of three rounds. Stephens can knock out anybody, but I think it is KO-or-bust for him. I will side with him not getting it and losing a unanimous decision here.

Anthony Pettis (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (+110): Cerrone via decision

These two fought back in 2013 and Pettis won with a first-round KO. Now, they are both toward the end of their careers and coming off multiple losses. I still think this will be a great fight and it could even end like their last one did. I think Cerrone is the better all-around fighter, but he isn't as durable as he used to be, so I think he is more likely to be finished as well. If this fight ends inside the distance, I think Pettis is the winner. If this goes all three rounds, I like Cowboy to get his hand raised.

Greg Hardy (-180) vs. Yorgan De Castro (+160): De Castro via TKO

Either guy could end this fight with one punch, and I don't expect to see a decision. I think Hardy is the more athletic fighter and might have an edge in striking if this fight plays out over three rounds. He may be more likely to land the big KO on the feet. I think De Castro would have the edge on the ground if he can get it there, and I could see him getting a ground-and-pound finish. I think this fight comes down to who lands the big punch. At these odds, I would rather take the underdog.

Fabricio Werdum (-310) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (+255): Werdum via TKO

These are the two best submission artists in the heavyweight division and that is what makes this a very interesting fight. I hope we see this fight hit the mat because I would love to see a grappling match between these two. I think Werdum is miles ahead on the feet and I would pick him in a BJJ match as well, so I have to lean with him as the pick.

Carla Esparza (-145) vs Michelle Waterson (+125): Waterson via split decision

I like Waterson on the feet and I like Esparza on the mat. I think this will be a back-and-forth fight that could go either way. But I think Waterson can keep this fight on the feet longer than Esparza would like, so I am going to lean with her as my pick.

Jacare Souza (-125) vs. Uriah Hall (+105); Souza via submission

Souza is near the end of his career, but I think this is still a good matchup for him. Hall is the more dangerous striker, but I don't think he is going to have any big edge on the feet. If he gets taken down, he's in trouble. Souza is one of the most dangerous BJJ guys in the world, and I think if he gets this fight to the mat, it could be over shortly thereafter. Hall did survive and win against another solid grappler in his last fight and never has submitted in his career. But I am going to pick Souza to be the first one to get him to do it.

Vicente Luque (-265) vs. Niko Price (+225): Luque via submission

I think Luque has the advantage everywhere, except for maybe power. Price is a wild guy and has yet to even see the third round of a UFC fight in 10 outings. These two fought in 2017, and Luque won by submission in the second round. I think Price is going to need a KO to win, but I don't see that happening.

Bryce Mitchell (-190) vs. Charles Rosa (+165): Mitchell via split decision

Both guys are coming off impressive submission wins and this should be a fun match with a good amount of grappling. I don't have a strong lean either way and I don't think either guy has a big edge on the feet or the ground. I think Mitchell is a fighter on the way up and Rosa is likely toward the end of his career. For that reason, I will take Mitchell as my pick.

Ryan Spann (-380) vs. Sam Alvey (+300); Spann via split decision

This likely will be a slow-paced striking battle. I don't see either guy getting takedowns, and it could come down to who lands more volume. I think Spann will be the one pressing forward and probably landing a bit more, and I would say he has more power and the better chin. I think Spann is the rightful favorite, but I also see a close fight.
 
I don't think Karate Hottie puts up enough volume on the feet to cement herself winning. Esparza throws up similar numbers and will be the most TD heavy attacker Waterson will have faced. Bad thing is Esparza doesnt offer much in terms of GnP and Watersons guard is probably active enough to prevent passing and offer things to think about.
 
Spann will outwork alvey. Hall has a puncher's chance
 
I think justin's power will carry him to a late finish
 
I'll say this about Gaycheeses new "style". Remember when Cejudo marched in on Reis with his Karate shit and blasted him? Everybody was saying "omg look at the new Henry. His style has totally changed". Then in his next fight with Pettis, Henry had massive trouble staying disciplined in his stand up style after getting clowned with footwork and counters. Went to the wrestling well far and deep. It's hard to change your style like that. It's why Showtime Pettis struggles the way he does. He's not much different than the champ he was in the WEC. Idk just my 2 cents.

I also don't think Tony is as hittable as people say. Punches seem to hit him in the face but he has a really unorthodox way of rolling with them.
 
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