UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

rille31 said:
Not really considering his ml is +240

I put some cash on his ml and I´m ok with losing that bet
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Those odds for round 1 and 2 ko are nuts when its essentially the only 2 ways he can beat Luque
 
Sono07 said:
A peak at prefight Cruz

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I don't like that i'm liking cruz. When you think of the matchup, cruz seems like a hard puzzle for meat and potatoes cejudo. Problem is cruz' rust. Idk. How does cejudo beat him? He doesn't have the boxing nor the reach to make cruz pay for his weaknesses, and i doubt he ko's him. Take him down and keep him down? Cruz is a tricky fucker with the grappling, and is a strong 35er. Don't get me wrong, i'm not a fan and cruz' shape is a huuge red flag but he has proved time and time again he's a gritty fighter, and has a strong mental game. Cruz made a career beating stocky wrestlers like cejudo.
 
theTKDguy said:
I don't like that i'm liking cruz. When you think of the matchup, cruz seems like a hard puzzle for meat and potatoes cejudo. Problem is cruz' rust. Idk. How does cejudo beat him? He doesn't have the boxing nor the reach to make cruz pay for his weaknesses, and i doubt he ko's him. Take him down and keep him down? Cruz is a tricky fucker with the grappling, and is a strong 35er. Don't get me wrong, i'm not a fan and cruz' shape is a huuge red flag but he has proved time and time again he's a gritty fighter, and has a strong mental game. Cruz made a career beating stocky wrestlers like cejudo.
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If you think Cejudo doesn’t have the striking to beat Cruz you haven’t been paying attention
 
theTKDguy said:
I don't like that i'm liking cruz. When you think of the matchup, cruz seems like a hard puzzle for meat and potatoes cejudo. Problem is cruz' rust. Idk. How does cejudo beat him? He doesn't have the boxing nor the reach to make cruz pay for his weaknesses, and i doubt he ko's him. Take him down and keep him down? Cruz is a tricky fucker with the grappling, and is a strong 35er. Don't get me wrong, i'm not a fan and cruz' shape is a huuge red flag but he has proved time and time again he's a gritty fighter, and has a strong mental game. Cruz made a career beating stocky wrestlers like cejudo.
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If Cruz has any chance I'd say it's a decision. Coming off a massive lay off and only having a months notice I think that's unlikely. Conditioning should give Henry an edge, he packs alot of muscle at 135. Looking like a fun sized version of his buddy Paula Costa.

I think Cruz knows this could be his last chance at a title but I doubt he is fully prepared.
 
TrueAscension said:
If you think Cejudo doesn’t have the striking to beat Cruz you haven’t been paying attention
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Does he have the striking to beat Cruz at a high rate if Cruz hasn't declined significantly though? Cejudo has nothing that past guys used to take rounds from Cruz.
 
I like cowboy this time around. I know Pettis stopped him back then...body kick at the beginning of the fight. Both fighters have significantly lost a step. Cowboy has been fighting killers. Pettis has been fighting excellent fighters as well. The pettis from back in the day wasn't getting submitted or stopped at all. Almost got tko by Diaz (more to do with the foot than anything) but still. He's getting injured and tired etc. Wonderboy was whooping up on him...he doesn't land that one and he's on a good losing streak. Cowboy beat hernandez a young buck. Thay's a pretty good win then iaquinta. Then furgeson, gaethje, mcgregor...jeez. I know his chin is damaged but I think this fight plays out in a 3 rd affair
 
Cruz at his peak would probably dance circles around Henry, but this is far from peak Cruz. Older, injured, rusty and slower.

Saying that, everyone keeps talking about Cruz's lay off but Henry is coming of a long lay off himself, so I don't really see that only being a factor for Cruz.

What I do see is someone from the past, a relic, fighting someone in the prime and making improvements. Garbrant made Cruz look stupid, literally danced around him in there. Garbrant isn't amazing, he just swings big and moves quickly, we've seen how bad he actually can be since that fight, repeatedly getting crushed.

Cruz is too slow, has too many miles on him and too many injuries.

Henry's path is probably going to be constant pressure. Marlon is about as big as BW can get, extremely athletic and explosive and Herny just walked through the fight and found his path. Cruz really offers no danger, you can move forward abe not worry to much about a huge head kick or knee coming back at you from no where, it's all going to be pitter patter to score points.

People will probably say Henry doesn't kick the legs, that's key to beating Cruz, as if he can't add a leg kick to him game. He certainly can, he can gameplan for Cruz specifically and if the leg kick is key add it in.

I wouldn't bet pre fight as both guys have been out so long, both have been injured and we don't know what version of each we get, but I have more faith in Henry being close to 100% than I ever can Cruz.

Cruz could even do well but it just takes one miss step, one hard kick, one bad fall on a scramble and his leg can drop off again.
 
BigSteve said:
These odds are nuts, specially for Nico
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you know they fought before right? was a pretty easy victory for luque, and it wasnt that long ago. odds seem quite right to me.
 
Sono07 said:
If Cruz has any chance I'd say it's a decision. Coming off a massive lay off and only having a months notice I think that's unlikely. Conditioning should give Henry an edge, he packs alot of muscle at 135. Looking like a fun sized version of his buddy Paula Costa.

I think Cruz knows this could be his last chance at a title but I doubt he is fully prepared.
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Definitely. Decision is his only ptv
 
2020Tracked said:
Cruz at his peak would probably dance circles around Henry, but this is far from peak Cruz. Older, injured, rusty and slower.

Saying that, everyone keeps talking about Cruz's lay off but Henry is coming of a long lay off himself, so I don't really see that only being a factor for Cruz.

What I do see is someone from the past, a relic, fighting someone in the prime and making improvements. Garbrant made Cruz look stupid, literally danced around him in there. Garbrant isn't amazing, he just swings big and moves quickly, we've seen how bad he actually can be since that fight, repeatedly getting crushed.

Cruz is too slow, has too many miles on him and too many injuries.

Henry's path is probably going to be constant pressure. Marlon is about as big as BW can get, extremely athletic and explosive and Herny just walked through the fight and found his path. Cruz really offers no danger, you can move forward abe not worry to much about a huge head kick or knee coming back at you from no where, it's all going to be pitter patter to score points.

People will probably say Henry doesn't kick the legs, that's key to beating Cruz, as if he can't add a leg kick to him game. He certainly can, he can gameplan for Cruz specifically and if the leg kick is key add it in.

I wouldn't bet pre fight as both guys have been out so long, both have been injured and we don't know what version of each we get, but I have more faith in Henry being close to 100% than I ever can Cruz.

Cruz could even do well but it just takes one miss step, one hard kick, one bad fall on a scramble and his leg can drop off again.
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Cejudo been out for 11 months Cruz 4 years cant compare the two layoffs.
 
Cruz-Cejudo is weird. Peak Cruz should be -250, and I can only really see Cejudo justifying his massive favorite line if Cruz looks injury-compromised. And it's hard to know what Cruz' condition is going to be like pre-fight.

Taking a small roll of the dice on Cruz, but nothing gigantic.
 
Broe. said:
you know they fought before right? was a pretty easy victory for luque, and it wasnt that long ago. odds seem quite right to me.
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Of course I do, watched it multiple times and had money on Nico the first time as a dog. He fought nothing like himself.
He has a chance to re-do that fight and fight like a crazy man like he usually does. The fight was almost 3 years ago, and both have had exactly 6 fights in between this rematch. I still think Luque wins, but he has always had bad head movement and he is fighting a guy that can Ko anyone, he dropped Geoff Neil in the last fight who is much more defensively sound. Luque has also taken a ton of damage from Barbarena, Perry and Wonderboy.

End of the day im playing 1u on NIko rd1 ko, 1u rd2 ko and 4u on Luque rd 1 or 2. Worst case if Luque wins, up 2u. If Niko kos him in first 2 then a very solid profit.
 
2020Tracked said:
Cruz at his peak would probably dance circles around Henry, but this is far from peak Cruz. Older, injured, rusty and slower.

Saying that, everyone keeps talking about Cruz's lay off but Henry is coming of a long lay off himself, so I don't really see that only being a factor for Cruz.

What I do see is someone from the past, a relic, fighting someone in the prime and making improvements. Garbrant made Cruz look stupid, literally danced around him in there. Garbrant isn't amazing, he just swings big and moves quickly, we've seen how bad he actually can be since that fight, repeatedly getting crushed.

Cruz is too slow, has too many miles on him and too many injuries.

Henry's path is probably going to be constant pressure. Marlon is about as big as BW can get, extremely athletic and explosive and Herny just walked through the fight and found his path. Cruz really offers no danger, you can move forward abe not worry to much about a huge head kick or knee coming back at you from no where, it's all going to be pitter patter to score points.

People will probably say Henry doesn't kick the legs, that's key to beating Cruz, as if he can't add a leg kick to him game. He certainly can, he can gameplan for Cruz specifically and if the leg kick is key add it in.

I wouldn't bet pre fight as both guys have been out so long, both have been injured and we don't know what version of each we get, but I have more faith in Henry being close to 100% than I ever can Cruz.

Cruz could even do well but it just takes one miss step, one hard kick, one bad fall on a scramble and his leg can drop off again.
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I agree with most of what you say, but you have to give credit to Garbrandt in the Cruz fight, he fought a great fight and stylistically Cruz was a great matchup for him.
Too many unknowns in this fight with Cruz though. Live-bet after round 1 looks an option
 
NonPhixion said:
I agree with most of what you say, but you have to give credit to Garbrandt in the Cruz fight, he fought a great fight and stylistically Cruz was a great matchup for him.
Too many unknowns in this fight with Cruz though. Live-bet after round 1 looks an option
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It's a very solid option. Cejudo so juiced that you can still get good price on cruz after round 1 and we will see exactly what he has to offer by that point.
 
Also full props have been released in AUS.
im on this
0.3U - Ngannou Sub rd1 $18
0.2U - Ngannou Sub rd 2 $41
0.1U - Ngannou Sub rd 3 $81
Just have this feeling that with the chip on his shoulder Francis will want to showcase his full skillset in this fight, if he has Rozen in trouble he might go for a sub, he has done it before and Rozen might be the perfect match-up for it to happen again.
 
BigSteve said:
Of course I do, watched it multiple times and had money on Nico the first time as a dog. He fought nothing like himself.
He has a chance to re-do that fight and fight like a crazy man like he usually does. The fight was almost 3 years ago, and both have had exactly 6 fights in between this rematch. I still think Luque wins, but he has always had bad head movement and he is fighting a guy that can Ko anyone, he dropped Geoff Neil in the last fight who is much more defensively sound. Luque has also taken a ton of damage from Barbarena, Perry and Wonderboy.

End of the day im playing 1u on NIko rd1 ko, 1u rd2 ko and 4u on Luque rd 1 or 2. Worst case if Luque wins, up 2u. If Niko kos him in first 2 then a very solid profit.
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Niko took even more damage, got kod by Abdul and Geof Neal. Even bum Tim Means nearly finished him. I dont see even any progress in his game, most of his wins are lucky punches but yeah he has crazy power
 
Spann- WIns inside-125
Luque- Wins inside-155
Hall Souza- Over 2.5+105
Esparrza-155
Werdum-Olelink-Over 1.5-120
Pettis-Cerrone-Over 2.5-120
De Castro+160
Rozenstruck-Ngannou-Over 1.5-130
Cejudo-Cruz-Over 4.5-175
Ferguson-165
 
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