UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

[benebox]

Here we go again, Dana leading me on...

How do we think Pettis wins? I think people think he's less shot than Cerrone, but Cerrone has fought some killers and can still dominate top 15 people in the division who are younger and in their prime. ( Al, Hernandez etc).
Pettis also seems to have a little bit more quit in him, Cerrone will fight on unless you crack him real bad. I think rd2 and 3 are Cerrones once he fights his way into the fight and it remains standing. Pettis might win with the first with his flashiness but his cardio has been horrible lately and Cerrones is still top notch.

Pettis's striking is still top-notch and I envision him countering Cowboy who has a tendency to keep his head stationary after throwing a jab or a 1, 2. Pettis does quit a lot in fights but it tends to be after a couple of rounds of brutal warfare after his fragile body has broken his will, whereas with Cowboy he has a weak chin and that Overeem 'deer in the headlights' cover-up whenever he gets hurt so I would say Pettis is the much more likely to win by stoppage.

I'm a little worried as Cowboy is one of those fighters who perform best when there isn't pressure so I wonder if the empty stadium will benefit him but it would be more of an issue if Cowboy game planned to his opponents but at this point in his career, I think he is just happy to trade standing up.

Thoughts on Jacare-Hall?

Watching Hall struggle against shoeface and loosing rounds against Byron Davis I lean Jacare.
Albeit close I thought Hall lost 2-1 against shoeface but Jacare is better then shoeface in every area, maybe jits is even due to Jacare being older but way better striking and likely better takedowns with that judo black belt.

I could see Jacare winning rounds with striking, cage pushing and top control, could also see an head and arm choke.

I had 2 units on Jacare before 249 got canceled. My thinking is that Hall doesn't have the TDD or raw power to keep Jacare off him and without a crowd presence there will be less pressure for the ref to separate them so Hall will likely need an early-round KO to win.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Hall will likely need an early-round KO to win.

I strongly disagree with this statement.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Guys, Gaethies power is alot overrated but this nonsense weightcut is a concern for me that Ferguson will be weaker

 

[benebox]

I strongly disagree with this statement.

Reading it back to myself let me just clarify that I actually meant that as in early in any given round before Souza ties him up, opposed to an early-round of the fight.

 

[2020Tracked]

Pettis is the only bet I really like for this card, and probably Castro but I want the best price I can get on him.

I lean a lot of ways but not strongly enough to play them or the lines are just dead.

Picks so far are Ferg, Henry, Francis, Pettis, Kattar and Castro.

I am considering betting Price, just for his power and ability to pull a finish from no where.

Over all I'll be looking at live betting this card more so than pre bets.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Pettis is the only bet I really like for this card, and probably Castro but I want the best price I can get on him.

I lean a lot of ways but not strongly enough to play them or the lines are just dead.

Picks so far are Ferg, Henry, Francis, Pettis, Kattar and Castro.

I am considering betting Price, just for his power and ability to pull a finish from no where.

Over all I'll be looking at live betting this card more so than pre bets.

Why Castro??

 

[2020Tracked]

Why Castro??

Why Hardy, as a big favourite?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Why Hardy, as a big favourite?

Trains at ATT
Ko power
Did quite ok for short notice against Volkov
Hardy is a real hw, Castro a fat lhw

 

[2020Tracked]

Trains at ATT
Ko power
Did quite ok for short notice against Volkov
Hardy is a real hw, Castro a fat lhw

Where's Hardy's KO power? Who has he blasted? Castro is the fire power in that fight, one shot power and impressive accuracy on those punches.

Hardy was a punching bag against Volkov, just stuck at the end of his strikes for the whole fight, Volkov should really be ashamed that he couldn't finish him.

Training at ATT means what? Training at any established gym you are going to improve when you're going from zero experience to training with the best in the world.

What's Hardy's strategy? He can't wrestle he doesn't have a shot or a clinch game. He has run in and swing or he has 'tactical' kick boxing. He doesn't beat Castro at either, Castro will catch him with a straight shot coming in and take his head off in my opinion

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Where's Hardy's KO power? Who has he blasted? Castro is the fire power in that fight, one shot power and impressive accuracy on those punches.

Hardy was a punching bag against Volkov, just stuck at the end of his strikes for the whole fight, Volkov should really be ashamed that he couldn't finish him.

Training at ATT means what? Training at any established gym you are going to improve when you're going from zero experience to training with the best in the world.

What's Hardy's strategy? He can't wrestle he doesn't have a shot or a clinch game. He has run in and swing or he has 'tactical' kick boxing. He doesn't beat Castro at either, Castro will catch him with a straight shot coming in and take his head off in my opinion

Hardy will use tactical kickboxing, Castro is only a fat brawler

 

[2020Tracked]

Hardy will use tactical kickboxing, Castro is only a fat brawler

Castro's weight doesn't really matter, it comes down to gas tank in that case. Not to say Castro has good cardio, we don't really know, but Hardy doesn't, he needs an inhaler after a round and clearly slows down just standing for rounds

 

[BigSteve]

Hardy will use tactical kickboxing, Castro is only a fat brawler

Castro is not a brawler, where did you get that gem from

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Castro is not a brawler, where did you get that gem from

 

[BigSteve]

I legit knew this fight would be posted as a response haha... That skyscraper was a walking KO waiting to happen, cant fault him from swinging for the bleachers. Regardless he has very technical defensive footwork and counter game.

 

[matthew55]

I legit knew this fight would be posted as a response haha... That skyscraper was a walking KO waiting to happen, cant fault him from swinging for the bleachers. Regardless he has very technical defensive footwork and counter game.

I"m on Yorgan too, I think he might do somethin similar, blast away at the legs and then crack Hardy up top. Those leg kicks are powerful. I wouldn't be surprised if Hardy tries to use his size and strength advantage to wrestle if things get dicey for him, which would make things interesting. But Hardy is fade material if you ask me, especially as a favorite.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I give Castro 30% win chance, he is nothing special. Hardy has better cardio too, it will look like the Sosoli fight

 

[matthew55]

I give Castro 30% win chance, he is nothing special. Hardy has better cardio too, it will look like the Sosoli fight

Wasn't that a close fight in which got overturned to a NC because Hardy had to use his inhaler between rounds?

 

[TheFightGame]

Lol at the thought of Donald cerrone winning a fight in 2020. I'm fully convinced I could beat cowboy up and I expect pettis to do the same. After betting against him when he fought Gaethje and seeing him get whooped after taking a shoulder to the face from Connor, I have no faith in him.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Lol at the thought of Donald cerrone winning a fight in 2020. I'm fully convinced I could beat cowboy up and I expect pettis to do the same. After betting against him when he fought Gaethje and seeing him get whooped after taking a shoulder to the face from Connor, I have no faith in him.

Dude is done, he is a one shot fighter.
Pettis is a Gold bet and good parlay material.

Wasn't that a close fight in which got overturned to a NC because Hardy had to use his inhaler between rounds?

He fought 3 rounds with Volkov and earlier with Sosoli, Castro will gas after r1 and Hardy will use tactical kickboxing to win a boring decision

 

[benebox]

I'm not too sure why people are so confident in Tony, I could see Gaethje KOing Ferguson early. Ferguson gets hit a lot and Gaethje is one of the hardest hitters and best finishers he will have faced.

I'm considering to put a small bet on a Gaethje rd1 KO and live betting Tony after the first.