UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

One thing with Tony which scares me is that dude Has 37 years. Thats alot for lw, what if Justin kicks his injured knee and it pops out?
Tony lost against a cable in studio, Im starting to lean Justin via tko in r1 or r2

I got him in a parlay but I will cash out after the other fights hit


Dogs I like for this event
Hall 60%
Waterson 60% chance to win
Rozenstruk 60% chance to win
Gaethie 30% chance to win
 
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I avoided this one for a while. I wanted to make sure that I was pretty sure the event wasn't going to hit snags before making plays. Pretty confident in a lot of plays being the right side. It actually feels like an easy event to bet which is scary given the circumstances.

Alvey small - the line on this is absurd. If Spann doesn't get Alvey out of their early, this is going to be a pretty even fight. Spann is also pretty wide open himself, so I can see Alvey cracking him early as well.

Mitchell - better grappler, more physical, just as gritty, etc. I think he'll hold position much better on the ground.

Niko ITD tiny - I could see this being a pretty wild first round. I think Niko will go with a very aggressive approach.

Souza - Hall is toast if this gets on the ground, and I think Souza will be able to back Hall up to the fence where his striking is threatening as well.

Esparza/Waterson - only fight that I'm unsure of

Pettis/Cerrone - I think Pettis is simply a bad matchup for Cerrone. Cerrone really doesn't have anywhere to exploit on Pettis and I think Cerrone's chin is gone

Just Bleed Round Robin - I don't think Hardy/De Castro, Werdum/Oleniek, Ngannou/Rozen, or Ferg/Gaethje sees the cards.

Stephens - I think Stephens leg kicks will be a big factor and I think he's a danger in the pocket. The kicking game of Stephens really will even this one out far more than odds dictate.

Cruz - I think he has all of the makings to give Cejudo a very tough fight. If Cejudo doesn't crack Cruz, this has a close decision written all over it.
 
How is anyone on Rosen after he was thoroughly destroyed by a subpar fighter in his last outing for the entirety of the fight?

I think we see some heavy leg kicks but both guys hesitant to move forward.

I can see this going 3 rounds as both of these dudes can get hit really hard without breaking.
 
TrueAscension said:
How is anyone on Rosen after he was thoroughly destroyed by a subpar fighter in his last outing for the entirety of the fight?

I think we see some heavy leg kicks but both guys hesitant to move forward.

I can see this going 3 rounds as both of these dudes can get hit really hard without breaking.
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Destroyed? Overeem was a panicked wrestler The whole fight. Francis wont use wrestling because it will gas him. Rozenstriuk is the dog play of this event
 
FULL UFC 249
Spann- easy win for him, clown Alvey Has 1% chance to win

Bryce- Rosa is overrated and won via lucky sub against Bermudez, Bryce should win a dec here

Luque- Vincent should win but Niko is probably the hardest hitter in 170lbs so its a dog or pass

Hall- Jacare is old and on decline, Hall survived with Carlos Jr who Has better grappling

Waterson- Esparza is overrated wood wrestling, Michelle is way hotter than Carla and thats important for judges decision.

Werdum- Fabricio should win but not worth risk/odds. To many redflags

Pettis- Donald is done, he should retire after this fight. To much Beer

Hardy- Castro is a overrated far lhw

Rozenstriuk- dog bet of this event, he will school Francis

Cejudo- its a miracle that Cruz isnt injured yet , his footwork wont work on master Henry

Gaethie- big fan of Tony but he is 37 years old and got TKOD by a cable in tv studio
 
Wiktoruspro said:
FULL UFC 249
Spann- easy win for him, clown Alvey Has 1% chance to win

Bryce- Rosa is overrated and won via lucky sub against Bermudez, Bryce should win a dec here

Luque- Vincent should win but Niko is probably the hardest hitter in 170lbs so its a dog or pass

Hall- Jacare is old and on decline, Hall survived with Carlos Jr who Has better grappling

Waterson- Esparza is overrated wood wrestling, Michelle is way hotter than Carla and thats important for judges decision.

Werdum- Fabricio should win but not worth risk/odds. To many redflags

Pettis- Donald is done, he should retire after this fight. To much Beer

Hardy- Castro is a overrated far lhw

Rozenstriuk- dog bet of this event, he will school Francis

Cejudo- its a miracle that Cruz isnt injured yet , his footwork wont work on master Henry

Gaethie- big fan of Tony but he is 37 years old and got TKOD by a cable in tv studio
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Drinking again wik?
 
Wiktoruspro said:
One thing with Tony which scares me is that dude Has 37 years. Thats alot for lw, what if Justin kicks his injured knee and it pops out?
Tony lost against a cable in studio, Im starting to lean Justin via tko in r1 or r2

I got him in a parlay but I will cash out after the other fights hit


Dogs I like for this event
Hall 60%
Waterson 60% chance to win
Rozenstruk 60% chance to win
Gaethie 30% chance to win
Click to expand...

He's 36 not 37.

Also...if you only give Justin a 30% chance of winning, you know the value is then on Tony right now...right?

And holy shit should you have MONSTER action on Rozenstruik at current odds if you cap it that way. Wow.
 
mkess101 said:
He's 36 not 37.

Also...if you only give Justin a 30% chance of winning, you know the value is then on Tony right now...right?

And holy shit should you have MONSTER action on Rozenstruik at current odds if you cap it that way. Wow.
Click to expand...
If the ufc 249 goes like I want than Im changing my avatar goat picture to a next level
 
mkess101 said:
He's 36 not 37.

Also...if you only give Justin a 30% chance of winning, you know the value is then on Tony right now...right?

And holy shit should you have MONSTER action on Rozenstruik at current odds if you cap it that way. Wow.
Click to expand...

0.25 kelly would mean he should bet 10% of his bankroll
 
What about the under2.5 for jacare vs hall? Seems like a good play at evens no?
I think jacare by sub/tko and hall by ko are the most likely outcomes
 
theTKDguy said:
What about the under2.5 for jacare vs hall? Seems like a good play at evens no?
I think jacare by sub/tko and hall by ko are the most likely outcomes
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IDK...Hall low volume and Jacare wall n stall possibility would make me stay away from that bet (wouldn't play the over either, tbf). So many unknowns but the biggest one is that I just have no idea how shot Jacare is. For all his flaws, Hall can definitely find people's chin and end fights when he does. But this is the kind of fight to me that there is NOTHING you can "hang your hat on". Jacare's grappling...sure...but I honestly have no clue if he has the ability to even get Hall to the mat at this point.
 
TrueAscension said:
How is anyone on Rosen after he was thoroughly destroyed by a subpar fighter in his last outing for the entirety of the fight?

I think we see some heavy leg kicks but both guys hesitant to move forward.

I can see this going 3 rounds as both of these dudes can get hit really hard without breaking.
Click to expand...

Jarz barely touches people and they drop from jabs, more well rounded. Francis wouldn't even trade with Lewis and it cost him an L so.
 
SolarSeiko said:
Jarz barely touches people and they drop from jabs, more well rounded. Francis wouldn't even trade with Lewis and it cost him an L so.
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Seems like Jarz leaves his chin up and open while looking for the counter. I may be more inclined just to bet that the fight won't hit the 2nd round, either Ngannou finds the chin or Jarz counter KO's.
 
matthew55 said:
Seems like Jarz leaves his chin up and open while looking for the counter. I may be more inclined just to bet that the fight won't hit the 2nd round, either Ngannou finds the chin or Jarz counter KO's.
Click to expand...
He does leave himself exposed but no one has capitalized on it or shown that he can be rocked as far as I've seen. Dude went 5 rounds with econo-reem, I'm okay with that.
 
TrueAscension said:
How is anyone on Rosen after he was thoroughly destroyed by a subpar fighter in his last outing for the entirety of the fight?

I think we see some heavy leg kicks but both guys hesitant to move forward.

I can see this going 3 rounds as both of these dudes can get hit really hard without breaking.
Click to expand...
Subpar fighter? Overeem is a great fighter but well past his prime now. He is still very good though. The way he destroyed that russian kid was very impressive. I dont know what kind of standards you hold heavyweight fighters up to. But overeem is still one of the best.
 
Changing my mind and going with souza. Shoeface landed too many takedowns against the fence vs Hall and that's unacceptable in this upcoming match-up. Souza has good durability and hall is low volume so I'm not scared of a ko. If it goes to the cards Souza probably wins from holding hall against the cage for a large portion of the fight and landing a takedown or 2. Each takedown will have grave consequences fight either ends or round is lost. Hall has been training alone in his gym no partners, can't imagine how he's able to prepare properly for what Souza brings. The shoeface fight is major red flags. Souza is stronger than shoeface too he was able to glue Jan to the cage a lot. Rockhold tried same thing and could barely hold Jan against the cage for long and gassed soon after iirc.
 
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