UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

Glad I had gotten my bet in on Volk at -190 before the Max red flags had Volk get bet down to -240. I finished taping it, and I'm more confident in Volk now even putting Max's lack of an actual camp aside.

Volk's timing in the first fight was sooooo good. Max is crazy good at slipping and rolling while he touches guys with jabs and check hooks. But Volk's leg kicks made Max constantly have to reset, and seeing Max's rhythm and timing so thrown off was eye opening. It was no fluke, Volk is just plain that good. He did the same vs Aldo, though was a bit less busy.

Max also faces the same issue he did vs Dustin in that he's at a big power disadvantage. Max hurting Volk is just so much less likely than vice versa if they get into pocket exchanges where both land. And while Max likely has a cardio edge, the other things that Volk does well really allow him to dictate pace and he seems to be excellent at managing his energy output.

I don't know if I'd play Volk at -240...that seems about right I guess? But I have him at -190 and am also a little on his -5.5 at +140. I think that has better value than his itd at +275. Covers a finish or this fight looking anything like the first one.
 
mkess101 said:
Glad I had gotten my bet in on Volk at -190 before the Max red flags had Volk get bet down to -240. I finished taping it, and I'm more confident in Volk now even putting Max's lack of an actual camp aside.

Volk's timing in the first fight was sooooo good. Max is crazy good at slipping and rolling while he touches guys with jabs and check hooks. But Volk's leg kicks made Max constantly have to reset, and seeing Max's rhythm and timing so thrown off was eye opening. It was no fluke, Volk is just plain that good. He did the same vs Aldo, though was a bit less busy.

Max also faces the same issue he did vs Dustin in that he's at a big power disadvantage. Max hurting Volk is just so much less likely than vice versa if they get into pocket exchanges where both land. And while Max likely has a cardio edge, the other things that Volk does well really allow him to dictate pace and he seems to be excellent at managing his energy output.

I don't know if I'd play Volk at -240...that seems about right I guess? But I have him at -190 and am also a little on his -5.5 at +140. I think that has better value than his itd at +275. Covers a finish or this fight looking anything like the first one.
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Dont believe everything you hear man. I for one dont believe max didnt have a camp. He is way too big to make weight without a significant camp with plenty of work. In Hawaii you can get in serious shit for training so hes not publicly coming out saying he and his crew trained, only for them to get in serious shit.

I'm sure like everyone else part of his camp had to be different and he had to get creative but if you honestly believe he ONLY did zoom workouts you're nuts.
 
MikeK1989 said:
Dont believe everything you hear man. I for one dont believe max didnt have a camp. He is way too big to make weight without a significant camp with plenty of work. In Hawaii you can get in serious shit for training so hes not publicly coming out saying he and his crew trained, only for them to get in serious shit.

I'm sure like everyone else part of his camp had to be different and he had to get creative but if you honestly believe he ONLY did zoom workouts you're nuts.
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I don't think he only did zoom workouts. I do think he had a VERY limited camp that didn't resemble what a normal camp would look like for him. Very limited sparring, etc.

Max's red flags are a small part of liking Volk for me though. Mostly it's all the other stuff I mentioned.
 
mkess101 said:
I don't think he only did zoom workouts. I do think he had a VERY limited camp that didn't resemble what a normal camp would look like for him. Very limited sparring, etc.

Max's red flags are a small part of liking Volk for me though. Mostly it's all the other stuff I mentioned.
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I like Volk to win but I dont like the current price at all. I think Max is going to push the pace quicker and considering how close the stats were the last fight anything over +130-140ish is too good for Max imo.

Volk at -225 is implying he wins about 70% of the time right? I think that's bs
 
MikeK1989 said:
I like Volk to win but I dont like the current price at all. I think Max is going to push the pace quicker and considering how close the stats were the last fight anything over +130-140ish is too good for Max imo.

Volk at -225 is implying he wins about 70% of the time right? I think that's bs
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I think he wins 80% of the time to be honest. He outclassed Holloway last time out. The judges scorecard were really bs
It should have been 50-45 or 49-46. I don't see why anything would be different this time out. What could Max honestly change in his approach? He always fights the same.
 
In canceled fights, how long til your bookies give you your wager back if you bet on one side of that? They wait til the event actually happens or sooner?

Maybe the holiday is just slowing up getting my Usman bet back.
 
Broe. said:
I think he wins 80% of the time to be honest. He outclassed Holloway last time out. The judges scorecard were really bs
It should have been 50-45 or 49-46. I don't see why anything would be different this time out. What could Max honestly change in his approach? He always fights the same.
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Dan Hardy has a great breakdown on the fight and discusses how Max in round 1 doesnt do much just learns. In round 2 he starts to test and rounds 3-4-5 he takes over. 2 judges gave the last 2 rounds to Max so that counts for something.

Now that Max knows his opponent he doesnt have to learn and doesnt have to test as MUCH so in theory he should start way faster. All max has to do is win one more round out of 3 and he wouldnt have lost his belt. At +180 odds I'm taking that all day long. GL on your bet though one of us will be wrong that much is certain!
 
MikeK1989 said:
Dan Hardy has a great breakdown on the fight and discusses how Max in round 1 doesnt do much just learns. In round 2 he starts to test and rounds 3-4-5 he takes over. 2 judges gave the last 2 rounds to Max so that counts for something.

Now that Max knows his opponent he doesnt have to learn and doesnt have to test as MUCH so in theory he should start way faster. All max has to do is win one more round out of 3 and he wouldnt have lost his belt. At +180 odds I'm taking that all day long. GL on your bet though one of us will be wrong that much is certain!
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Yes i have $700 on Volk and $200 on Volk Dec. I might hedge a bit in livebetting if volk wins the first round.
 
The hype and the performances do not match in the slightest for Peter Yan. I'm not sure if Aldo wins but I think someone like Aljimain Sterling beats him decisvely.

Yan is a pretty good defensive grappler and has crisp hands but there is this idea that he is the future of the division and I don't see it. I'm not biting this ufc hype machine
 
+200 for a former champ is downright absurd. Max is young, smart, and a warrior.

Volk came out with a good game plan and won the fight. It wasn’t a fluke but saying Volk can do that 80pct of the time is silly.

What’s less likely in my opinion is the exact same fight happening twice. That seems to be quite slim odds.
 
TrueAscension said:
+200 for a former champ is downright absurd. Max is young, smart, and a warrior.

Volk came out with a good game plan and won the fight. It wasn’t a fluke but saying Volk can do that 80pct of the time is silly.

What’s less likely in my opinion is the exact same fight happening twice. That seems to be quite slim odds.
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I can't knock anyone out for playing Max +200. That said, it's more stylistic for me. Max only had success when being aggressive but doing that early walks him into Volk's power.

Max has to figure out what to do about the leg kicks too. Not saying he can't. But that's a big hurdle.
 
Anyone else favoring Aldo vs Yan??
I kinda like Aldo in this matchup. Both guys are very similar boxing wise, but I give Aldo the slight advantage just because his stamina is insane. Yan throws more of a variety of strikes, but its nothing Aldo hasn't seen...
I also think Aldo won his last fight v Moraes. Marlon started to look tired in the middle of the 2nd, and even when he was landing some big shots, Aldo kept plotting forward as if he wasn't hurt at all.
I watched Yan v Rivera and Faber. Dude is a high level striker, but I feel like when he drops people its flukey. Dropped Rivera at the end of Rd 1 when Jimmie just looked lazy backing up, Yan caught him with a left hook. Dropped him at the end of Rd 2 when Jimmie leaned right into some big shots. Vs Faber, Yan just caught him with some elbows fresh out of the clench, where Faber was lazy w his hands down.
Idk guess I'm not all in on Yan yet...
Play on Aldo at +187
Also liking the OVER 2.5 rds at -180. Big line but these two are cardio freaks.
I'll be back for more bets .
 
Dante Bonanni said:
Anyone else favoring Aldo vs Yan??
I kinda like Aldo in this matchup. Both guys are very similar boxing wise, but I give Aldo the slight advantage just because his stamina is insane. Yan throws more of a variety of strikes, but its nothing Aldo hasn't seen...
I also think Aldo won his last fight v Moraes. Marlon started to look tired in the middle of the 2nd, and even when he was landing some big shots, Aldo kept plotting forward as if he wasn't hurt at all.
I watched Yan v Rivera and Faber. Dude is a high level striker, but I feel like when he drops people its flukey. Dropped Rivera at the end of Rd 1 when Jimmie just looked lazy backing up, Yan caught him with a left hook. Dropped him at the end of Rd 2 when Jimmie leaned right into some big shots. Vs Faber, Yan just caught him with some elbows fresh out of the clench, where Faber was lazy w his hands down.
Idk guess I'm not all in on Yan yet...
Play on Aldo at +187
Also liking the OVER 2.5 rds at -180. Big line but these two are cardio freaks.
I'll be back for more bets .
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No offense, but since when has Aldo been a cardio freak?
 
BigSteve said:
Whats your lean? I played Santos in a multy with Rosa, and hedged it with Bogatov by DEC
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Leaning Bogatov by decision tbh. I can see this being a grapple fest for sure. I can totally see Santos catching him in a choke though in R1 when they are dry but I prefer Bogatov's cardio and I think that is a bigger factor for this event, and I think Bogatov is just going to out-work 40YO Santos. But like I said Santos catching him in a sub early is also in play.
 
To be honest I see Aldo-Yan fight ending potentially under 2.5 rounds. Aldo's cardio is not very good. Both fighters like to pressure their opponents. I'm seeing Aldo jumping on Yan straight away like he tried on Connor. Not saying the fight will end under 15 seconds, but under 2.5 rounds is very realistic when everyone expects them to go all 5 rounds.
 
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