UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

[HockeyBjj]

its crazy, that fight goes to decision is x 1.75 in the ribas, ribas is fine playing it safe and outpointing the opponent as we have seen in the Markos and Dern fight. And Vanzant is supertough, she won't give up ever. this fight will go to decision 80% of the time

is she tho? Paige has only had 1 loss by decision in the UFC. The other two were rear naked choke submissions. Rivas has 2 of those wins on her record (plus a knee bar sub)

 

[Broe.]

is she tho? Paige has only had 1 loss by decision in the UFC. The other two were rear naked choke submissions. Rivas has 2 of those wins on her record (plus a knee bar sub)

Yes she could definitely submit vanzant. But i give it a low percentage shot. Ribas is perfectly fine with just striking the whole fight if she has got an edge there.

 

[Krieg the Psycho]

I figured it might be, but I'll look into it more. Go to the site and click on terms and conditions, you won't see the 14x whatever you deposit+bonus+fees rule. You have to click on 'general rules' and then go through a long list of their general rules to find all the other info. It's shady regardless, they could've easily put that in the first box you click. I don't expect books to not be shady though. And the only other book I use bonuses for is nothing like bol, so I thought it would be similar at least.

Just out of curiosity I went and checked out their rules. The T&C of the crypto bonus (the first box I clicked) actually do mention the 14x rollover requirement. You do have to click the "general rules" link to see the free play rules, though. They also don't say how much time you have to fulfill the rollover requirements (it could be the same 30 days they mention for the free plays). So they are up front about the insane rollover requirement, but there is some relevant stuff left out for sure.

Wait, you said you deposited $100 and the rollover requirement is $2,800? If so, that actually is quite scammy. Based on the terms and conditions I would assume the rollover requirement applies to the bonus amount, not both the deposit + bonus. In the latter case I would argue they are purposefully misleading the client with their vague wording.

 

[matthew55]

Just out of curiosity I went and checked out their rules. The T&C of the crypto bonus (the first box I clicked) actually do mention the 14x rollover requirement. You do have to click the "general rules" link to see the free play rules, though. They also don't say how much time you have to fulfill the rollover requirements (it could be the same 30 days they mention for the free plays). So they are up front about the insane rollover requirement, but there is some relevant stuff left out for sure.

Wait, you said you deposited $100 and the rollover requirement is $2,800? If so, that actually is quite scammy. Based on the terms and conditions I would assume the rollover requirement applies to the bonus amount, not both the deposit + bonus. In the latter case I would argue they are purposefully misleading the client with their vague wording.

That was part of my point, on that click they show you the 14x, but don't show you the 14x deposit+bonus+fees which you find in the 'general rules' which you have to click on in the red (and go through a long list of other general rules). It's all good though, I should know better. It's just like reading fine print though, a lot of people don't do it. Just wish my luck on my golf bets lol

 

[Krieg the Psycho]

Yeah I like Makwan there, got 900 on him. My main concern is his cardio, especially when he has so much distance to repeatedly close for as long as it's on the feet. If we had the confirmation of proper AC when he was still around -150 I would've gone bigger.

His cardio is a concern for sure, but at least his total collapse against Burgos can be explained to a degree. Apparently his body was not able to rehydrate after the cut and his fighting weight was around 152 pounds instead of the usual 160-165 pounds. He also got tired really fast during the warmups. Amirkhani added that according to the doctor (after the fight) he had some damage to his kidney and his potassium levels were too high. You probably already knew of his explanations, but I'm posting anyway for anyone else interested.
Source:

 

[Krieg the Psycho]

That was part of my point, on that click they show you the 14x, but don't show you the 14x deposit+bonus+fees which you find in the 'general rules' which you have to click on in the red (and go through a long list of other general rules). It's all good though, I should know better. It's just like reading fine print though, a lot of people don't do it. Just wish my luck on my golf bets lol

I must say that in this case the fine print is pretty well hidden. Good luck on your golf bets!

 

[HighStakesMMA]

You’re gonna like a write up I’m gonna post probably Monday after the holiday weekend. Watched last 3 fights from both Yan and Aldo. Aldo very much has a chance. Yan’s guard is high and Aldo loves ripping body shots. Both fighters continuously move forward. If neither give ground and this becomes a fight in a phone booth, Aldo’s head slips and counters give him the edge there. Yan more looks to back some one up to the cage and fire a laser fast right hand, and to fight on outside and over extend to get in range even when opponent slides back

Not saying Aldo should be considered the favorite, but it should be half the current line of -230/+185. Aldo does still have his gas issues and complete lack of output costing him decisions that are equally as likely to give him the L as catching some of Yan’s power after being stalked back to the cage or in clinch exits

Yup good points.

In my mind Yan is a solid fighter but I need to see more to believe the hype. I don't see "undeniable" championship quality from him.

I thought Aldo would have problems with Moraes' power, and he handled it very well. Now obviously Moraes doesn't have the cardio that Yan does, but it does show me that Aldo is ready for a firefight.

To be fair with Aldo, he might not have "great" cardio, but essentially the only time I've seen him get drowned was against Max, and Max is an all-time great in the division so I give Aldo the benefit of the doubt.

 

[MikeK1989]

His cardio is a concern for sure, but at least his total collapse against Burgos can be explained to a degree. Apparently his body was not able to rehydrate after the cut and his fighting weight was around 152 pounds instead of the usual 160-165 pounds. He also got tired really fast during the warmups. Amirkhani added that according to the doctor (after the fight) he had some damage to his kidney and his potassium levels were too high. You probably already knew of his explanations, but I'm posting anyway for anyone else interested.
Source:

Why do we assume this wont happen again? Also weird conditions. Weird time in the world right now. It's happened once so it can happen again right? We know itll be hot in the arena even if there is AC...

I think this is a great live bet spot. I can see Amirkhani controlling round 1 and gassing again. Henry is also extremely big for the weight class so this COULD play out very similarly to Burgos

 

[Krieg the Psycho]

Why do we assume this wont happen again? Also weird conditions. Weird time in the world right now. It's happened once so it can happen again right? We know itll be hot in the arena even if there is AC...

I think this is a great live bet spot. I can see Amirkhani controlling round 1 and gassing again. Henry is also extremely big for the weight class so this COULD play out very similarly to Burgos

It could happen again, sure. But he's not the only fighter who has had a terrible weight cut (even to the point where the fight has been called off, which could have happened here if Amirkhani hadn't kept his problems a secret), and most others have been just fine going forward. So until the same thing happens again, I'll consider it unlikely. But it's not like Amirkhani is a cardio machine on the best of days. So your live-betting plan is a good one. There's no risk in it and Amirkhani could certainly gas badly.

 

[piglord]

So I'm surprised no one believes in Max in the rematch. I watched the first fight and didn't see anything special in what Volkanovski did other than the leg kicks. It was a close fight. 2 judges gave 47-48 to Volk. If Max can avoid the leg kicks or check them he will win.

i took a stab on his decision line but max doing zero sparring is a major red flag.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Someone please enlighten me as to why Martin Day is such a big fav over Davey Grant

I think it should be wider, myself, and I think this fight is gliding under the radar a bit. There is value up until the mid -2xx's imo. Grant has a grinding ptv but none of the physicality upside that Ping had to muscle Day down like he did. Day was cruising in that fight until he got caught and made a bad (concussed?) decision to go for a choke instead of standing up. Then Ping clung to his back for round 3 and still barely eeked the split win.
At range, Day should outvolume him 3:1 imo, and has a much higher variety of striking (I love his kicking, for instance). He also fights very long, which will force Grant to shoot his ugly shots from a long way out. Again, the way he defends Ping's attempts in round 1 of their fight makes me think Grant has nothing there. I think a finish is in play here too. Grant is tencious and tough, and I don't like betting against that, but this fight is Day's, all day.

 

[rille31]

Not saying Aldo should be considered the favorite, but it should be half the current line of -230/+185.

how do you cap it?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Yeah... I'm fading.

 

[HockeyBjj]

how do you cap it?

-170 to +140 would look more appropriate to me. Which to me means a bit of value on Aldo @ +185 even if I still think he’s more likely to lose the fight than win it. Would absolutely not touch Yan at -230

 

[theTKDguy]

i think he's lying

 

[loller90278]

The more i research Yan/Aldo, the more I am leaning towards Aldo. While Yan has looked great in the UFC, I don't think he's fought the caliber of opponents that Aldo has. Jimmie Rivera showed the gameplan of beating him and he got dropped by Dodson. I don't think Aldo is in his prime anymore but he looked great in his last fight (although I think he lost). Yan won't show anything to Aldo that he hasn't seen before. I would argue that Yan isn't the fastest guy, or the most technical guy or even the hardest hitter. What Aldo has to watch out for is the left straight and left body kick by Yan -- his hooks come in really wide and could be avoided by slipping and countering. If he can effectively do that, I think it'll be a clear cut win for him. We've seen Yan susceptible to leg kicks as well as body kicks in the Rivera fight and Aldo has the best lower body kicks in the history of the sport.

As of right now, I think Aldo will eat up his legs and body with kicks and punches for the first 3 rounds and finishes him in the 4th.

I'm definitely not discounting a Yan win though -- he definitely has a path to victory with having the better gas tank and can KO anyone in the division at any given night

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I think it should be wider, myself, and I think this fight is gliding under the radar a bit. There is value up until the mid -2xx's imo. Grant has a grinding ptv but none of the physicality upside that Ping had to muscle Day down like he did. Day was cruising in that fight until he got caught and made a bad (concussed?) decision to go for a choke instead of standing up. Then Ping clung to his back for round 3 and still barely eeked the split win.
At range, Day should outvolume him 3:1 imo, and has a much higher variety of striking (I love his kicking, for instance). He also fights very long, which will force Grant to shoot his ugly shots from a long way out. Again, the way he defends Ping's attempts in round 1 of their fight makes me think Grant has nothing there. I think a finish is in play here too. Grant is tencious and tough, and I don't like betting against that, but this fight is Day's, all day.

Didn't you make a long, tearful post saying your goodbyes to this forum? Why are you now crawling back?

 

[MikeK1989]

i took a stab on his decision line but max doing zero sparring is a major red flag.

I think its BS man. In Hawaii if you train you get mega fines, etc.. you dont think max sparred and trained? that is ridiculous. Dont believe everything you hear...as Trump says #fakenews

 

[Soccer Steve]

Claiming Canada is free when you can get thrown in jail for "homophobic" Tweets or "misgendering" someone is easily the funniest thing you've ever written here. Nevermind how much of your ruling class has a boner for that very same Soviet Union and is successfully enacting a similar society.



Speaking of bets, it was a different forum member who informed me that you had left, and was very jubilant about it. I told him not to get too excited; being the lying little coward you are, you would inevitably slink back here a few months later despite all the histrionics and tears of your departure.

Turns out I was correct!

Hope you put money on that prediction because that means you actually won a bet for once!

It's been fun catching up Paul.