UFC 254 - Khabib vs. Gaethje - Official thread

TrueAscension said:
Listen I'll be the first to admit if/when I am wrong like I have on multiple occasions but Khabib has never felt the power of the leg kicks Gaethje will bring to bear. Khabib's strategy has always and will always be to back someone up to the fence and start chain wrestling until he gets position and then not let up. The problem is he has never faced someone who just completely walks forward and says fuck it, I'll kill or be killed. Anyone can be cracked, anyone can have the pressure applied to get knocked out and Justin brings that power. Justin says he doesn't wrestle because it exhausts him but he is talking about offensive wrestling. He is talking about trying to take people down and dominate them when he would rather stand and bang. I think Justin's defensive wrestling is what will make this fight. And the fucking leg kicks. If he lands 10-12 of his thunderous leg kicks, this fight is completely his for the taking.

Then again, Khabib could just take him down and fuck his mouth. At +250 I'm happy to take a chance on my gut for 1/8th of what I have made this year.
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Rewatch Khabib vs Barboza. Barboza landed several really hard leg kicks. They didn't faze Khabib at all, not even a slight reaction to them even though they landed hard. I don't see why Gaethje's leg kicks would be so much worse tbh.
 
Had to wet the beak on a monday, not a serious parlay, but also, not NOT serious.



Justin Gaethje +264
Jared Cannonier -110
Walt Harris +130
Magomed Ankalaev -325
Tai Tuivasa -105
Da Un Jung -400
UAB
Marshall
Notre Dame
Florida State
Virginia Tech
Baylor

10 to win 16,977

DANA! 16 g's baby!
 
Broe. said:
Rewatch Khabib vs Barboza. Barboza landed several really hard leg kicks. They didn't faze Khabib at all, not even a slight reaction to them even though they landed hard. I don't see why Gaethje's leg kicks would be so much worse tbh.
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I rewatched eagle vs diamond...that punch poirer landed...justin hits cleaner/ harder. also, diamond looked gassed, really slow midway 2nd round. Justin got this, and it's going to look easy.
 
Broe. said:
Rewatch Khabib vs Barboza. Barboza landed several really hard leg kicks. They didn't faze Khabib at all, not even a slight reaction to them even though they landed hard. I don't see why Gaethje's leg kicks would be so much worse tbh.
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I don’t need to rewatch Barboza, he allowed himself to get backed up to the fence. Gaethje won’t. He will move forward either to his detriment or to his favor. Barboza’s take down defense and Gaethje’s unwillingness to back up are two different things
 
Listen, my biggest win in MMA was when I was in Vegas, betting on Khabib vs Conor.

I sat in Lagasse's Stadium inside of the Palazzo, in a nice ass booth, with unlimited drinks/food while watching 95% of the public bet on Conor.

I even had a sidebet with a dude that wanted to give me even odds on Khabib, when there's a sportsbook inside of Lagasse's Stadium where he could've got +150...

Point being, that was a memorable night, and Khabib is one of my favorite fighters.

But Gaethje brings a whole different style to the table than what Khabib has seen. To deny that there's value on him at +270 is absurd.

He will walk Khabib down, and about his low kicks -- he doesn't throw them like Barboza does. Gaethje is the best in the game at throwing heavy low kicks from inside of the pocket coming off of a boxing combination.

Yes, he gets tired wrestling. But that was early in his career when he used his wrestling offensively.

If Khabib is able to take him down at will, of course he'll get tired. But even in the Conor fight, we saw him take rd3 off. And even in rd4 before the sub, his cardio was better than Conor's, but people are making him out to be a cardio freak like Usman which he simply is not.
 
Question..Did Khabib take rd3 off against Connor because he wanted to stand and strike with him to prove a point, or was he legitimately trying to conserve energy? I think the former.

He had been standing more to prove a point I feel like. I thought he even said as much after the Iaquinta fight
 
been taping oliviera/rakhmanov today and I like the cowboy in this one.

Rakhmanov is a talented, all around fighter with some flashy stand up and a good grip on his submissions. He's finished all 12 of his opponents, 7 of them in the 1st round. He isn't a big 170 though, he will fill out in the next few years since he's still young (25)

I think the UFC is making cowboy to be a gatekeeper but I think he's slightly better than that. He's a lot more experienced than Rakhmanov and has tighter striking. I can't see him get submitted either.

I like Oliviera at -140. I could see him getting up to -180. He's durable, is the more powerful and cleaner puncher and has way more experience at the big show. Plus, he has 10 kids so he needs the win bonus haha
 
1 unit on Alvey + Gaethje, 4 units on Alvey, 10 units on Gaethje. Both fought on the Ferguson card, Both have similar odds. I don't believe in fortune cookies or coincidences.
 
I already have 4u on Khabib at -250.
I plan on putting the same amount on Ankalev.
I also like Kenney a lot.
Will probably throw a little money on Jojua (maybe half a unit or so). It's grappler vs grappler, and Jojua has a very slick armbar, so maybe there is value on her at +320.

Fights I still need to tape are Oliveira-Rakhmonov and Cannonier-Whittaker

Fights I don't like
Yakovlev vs Alvarez. They have fought completely different competition, so it's hard to get a read. Also, I think they are pretty evenly matched on the feet, so if it stays there, there is the chance it can go either way or that the judges fuck it up. Grapplingwise, I give an edge to Yakovlev in the wrestling department, but Alvarez seems super dangerous off his back and with those guillotines. Pass for me.

Harris vs Volkov. Will stay on the feet, Volkov is the better technician and has the gas tank but Harris has the KO power... Maybe I will take small stab at Harris R1 at +450 but that would be all.

Struve vs Tuivasa. I like Struve here but history has shown he isn't reliable at all. Pass


I've done a bit of statistics today and what I noticed was that my ROI was great on events where I went big on fewer fights, rather than trying to bet on multiple fights, where my ROI has been super shitty.
Second thing I noticed was that my ROI was good when I bet on fighters anywhere between 1.4 and 1.6 (despite the Ortega fight this weekend).
There are only so many fights I can have a good read on and that's ok. So if it has to stay with Khabib, Ankalaev, Kenney, and the small bets for fun on Harris R1 and Jojua, it will.
 
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Just threw 10u on Shavkat @ +110.

I'll be incredibly surprised if he's not the favorite by the time the fights roll around. I wish I got him at his opener, but I feel like these odds are a gift. I'll break down the fight when I'm not quite as tired.

I wish this card was on at the regular time for us Americans.
 
levitation said:
1 unit on Alvey + Gaethje, 4 units on Alvey, 10 units on Gaethje. Both fought on the Ferguson card, Both have similar odds. I don't believe in fortune cookies or coincidences.
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Seriously? He looked bad against Crute and old man Rogerio and his chin may be gone. Jung is one dimensional, but he has power in his hands and can fight southpaw which will negate Alvey's counter right hook. I don't think Jung is worth a play at those odds, but I'm having trouble seeing Alvey's PTV. Jung took everything from Ibragimov and it was his first UFC fight so I don't see Alvey ending it via TKO. Alvey has a guillotine win at 185 over Spicely, but Jung barely has any takedowns at all so I doubt he'll shoot especially if he's winning the striking. You think Alvey will switch it up and get takedowns or something? Jung has fought a lot of cans at 265 so it's not like he's a great fighter, but maybe you should start believing in not losing money. 5U lost hurts.

Wiktoruspro said:
Im betting Gaethie too, he is the worst match up for Khabib.
Not pussy Ferguson but Gaethie.

When is the last time Khabib fought a wrestler?
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Iaquinta and Johnson are juco wrestlers. Iaquinta had good takedown defense in 3/4, but was taken down often in 1/2.

Naught2Sixty said:
Kamal Shalorus represented the UK in an Olympic tournament, Abel Trujillo had a college level background similar to Gaethje and Pat Healy too.
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The guy who stuffed Khabib the best was Tibau, but he was a monster at 155 and probably cut 35 pounds to get there. After watching Poirier/Gaethje, I think Khabib can press the single to the cage and probably hit duck unders, but I don't know if he can keep it down. Those pocket leg kicks may work against Gaethje as Khabib will probably time them and get it down. This fight is risky as Gaethje has the combination of skills that make the line seem off, but Khabib is very good at getting the fight where he wants it. I don't like the lines very much. I don't want to say Gaethje is TKO or bust, but it kind of looks that way. His striking is pretty good now and he has dropped some tough people.
 
Main_Card_MMA said:
The guy who stuffed Khabib the best was Tibau, but he was a monster at 155 and probably cut 35 pounds to get there. After watching Poirier/Gaethje, I think Khabib can press the single to the cage and probably hit duck unders, but I don't know if he can keep it down. Those pocket leg kicks may work against Gaethje as Khabib will probably time them and get it down. This fight is risky as Gaethje has the combination of skills that make the line seem off, but Khabib is very good at getting the fight where he wants it. I don't like the lines very much. I don't want to say Gaethje is TKO or bust, but it kind of looks that way. His striking is pretty good now and he has dropped some tough people.
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I won't hedge but if I were to, I would rather take Gaethje dec. I rate Khabib's chin as high if not higher thn Tony's, and Tony was 1min away to make it to a decision. I could see this fight with Khabib not able to take down Gaethe in every round, so that we see a striking battle, in which Gaethe will dominate (but not school him either, Khabib has very good hands and people are afraid to commit to their punches because of the td threat) and take rounds, but without stopping him either.

But again, I have 4u on Khabib's ML (at -250) and will take the risk to not hedge
 
I'm wondering where the ITD line will settle for this one. I really don't Khabib/Gaethje going to decision. It's going to be a pretty major clash of styles and I don't think Gaethje will be able to remain comfortable throughout. I think he'll go back to his sprinting ways and either land something big or get drowned in deep waters.
 
Invictis said:
Surprised I'm not the sole person on Gaethje here.

Khabib has such a huge fanbase, he opened at -350, I'm hoping to be able to get Gaethje at +300.

Khabib should be bet heavily this week.
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Invictis and TrueAcension - Respect to you guys for riding with an unpopular underdog.

Many of his wins are from cumulative damage where he gets the finish in later rounds. Even if Justin only lands 2 leg kicks per round that is still 10 kicks by round 5. I am leaning Khabib but I do think Justin has a chance to build up damage on Khabib and find a late finish especially when Khabib is tired.
 
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TrueAscension said:
Listen I'll be the first to admit if/when I am wrong like I have on multiple occasions but Khabib has never felt the power of the leg kicks Gaethje will bring to bear. Khabib's strategy has always and will always be to back someone up to the fence and start chain wrestling until he gets position and then not let up. The problem is he has never faced someone who just completely walks forward and says fuck it, I'll kill or be killed. Anyone can be cracked, anyone can have the pressure applied to get knocked out and Justin brings that power. Justin says he doesn't wrestle because it exhausts him but he is talking about offensive wrestling. He is talking about trying to take people down and dominate them when he would rather stand and bang. I think Justin's defensive wrestling is what will make this fight. And the fucking leg kicks. If he lands 10-12 of his thunderous leg kicks, this fight is completely his for the taking.

Then again, Khabib could just take him down and fuck his mouth. At +250 I'm happy to take a chance on my gut for 1/8th of what I have made this year.
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Do you think he can win a decision? Why not go Gaethje ITD @ +440?
 
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