UFC 254 - Khabib vs. Gaethje - Official thread

[Martialbeef]

Got to parlay Khabib Gaethje doesn’t go the distance at 4/9 with something. Yeah the odds are pretty meh but i see no way Gaethje escapes 5 rounds with a superior submission grappler who is going to grind until Gaethje is done, especially when Justin said wrestling tires him out. And if Justin somehow wins it’s a finish

 

[BigSteve]

Everyone has a take on the main event and here is my 2c:

While I respect those taking a shot and betting Justin at great dog odds I really don't think Justin has much for Khabib. Khabib is a technician and has honed his craft over many years. Every hand position and movement is practiced and strategic.

Justin on the other hand is really just a high level brawler (that might be selling him short but thats my honest opinion). It wasn't long ago that he suffered back to back KO/TKO losses to Poirier and Alvarez. Justin did return much better vs. Ferguson and seemed to reinvent his style to an extent. Even taking into consideration Justin's improvements and becoming Gaethje 2.0 I still don't think he has much for Khabib.

The 2 things Justin likes to do most will get him taken down. Those 2 things are throwing leg kicks and walking forward with the shell guard. Throwing a leg kick makes one very susceptible to getting take down. Being a pressure fighter, which Justin is also opens one to being taken down. Therefore, I really don't see how Justin approaches this fight without being on his back for long periods at a time. Can Justin get up once he is taken down? Unlikely, in my opinion.

Justin basically has 30 seconds to a minute (if he is lucky) at the beginning of each round to inflict max damage while standing before he ends up on his back. In a nutshell, I would say Justin has a punchers chance. Justin is a sloppy and reckless fighter when compared to Khabib's polished grappling skillset.

The main chance I see for Justin is to land something big at the beginning of round 3,4 or 5 when both guys are tired and forced to start standing.

Good luck to Justin. I love the guy but I think he ends up on bottom getting manhandled over 5 rounds.

I feel like you might be missing some recent tape based on this analysis. Justin changed his style up long before Ferguson, he has perfected it by now. He dosen't do the shell guard anymore either. He pretty much has his hands down, bounces on his toes and pot shots from a distance. He is in and out and has great footwork which means Khabib will have to time him on the take down, or the leg kick. When you step into his boxing range he has much improved head movement and and hooks coming up from weird angles with power. He also throws going backwards now and with awkward timing. ( Koed Cerrone with it and pieced up Ferguson who was eating every combo for 5 rounds ). Khabib has always been hittable and has that weird defence where his chin is up and he just flinches with his elbows. Todays Geathje has a much better style of beating Khabib than 3 fights ago.

Now grapplng wise its silly to assume Khabib wont get him down. But we have seen Dustin, Connor, Barboza, Al and even Micheal Johnson stuff a couple of his takedowns. Some of them were stuffed easy by Johnson and Barboza because Khabib actually dosen't always have the best entries, he has to rush in wildly just to get a hold on you. Once he has a solid hold his chances increase. Barboza was able to matador his way out early but we all know he sucks with pressure and being stuck up against cage.

Geathje has been wrestling since 4, so he says. We have seen him fight a different gameplan in the 5 round fight against Ferguson, being much more technical landing almost everything on a very hittable Ferguson. He wants to be a champ now so he has adapted. That was also his first ever short notice fight, and he looked fine over the whole 5 rounds. Yes he says he never uses wrestling because it makes him tiered, but i am gona make lil assumption here and say he has had a full camp of wrestling for this match. He is not trying to cram a lifetime of wrestling in camps like most of Khabibs opponents, he is just polishing something he was always good at. All this being said I think theres a bit of value on Geathje for me, he is in his prime, hits like a truck, has a great scrambling and anty wrestling style. Enough for a cheeky unit for me

 

[ianj98]

[QUOTE="ianj98, post: 162262847, member] He has much more high-level experience than Shavkat.

Well, yeah[/QUOTE]

I honestly don't know much about his opponent. Is he a savage? Would you cap Oliveira higher or do you think Shavkat gets it done?

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

You don't know what you're going to get out of oliviera on any given fight day. Either his 9 children have empty bellies and he comes out a top 10 fighter or their belly are full and he's a clown.

 

[TheLampPost]

You don't know what you're going to get out of oliviera on any given fight day. Either his 9 children have empty bellies and he comes out a top 10 fighter or their belly are full and he's a clown.

Seriously. Dude looked like a killer in his last fight. Super crisp striking but has been unreliable before for no good reason at all.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Cowboy is the definition of a gatekeeper.

He has some solid wins, but he tends to fade in almost every fight.

Watching tape on Shavkat -- he's just basically better than Alex everywhere.

He can match him on the feet, his ground game is as good as Cowboy's(his wrestling is better). His cardio is better, he's younger, more durable, and has more ways to win this fight, especially after round 1.

I think he opened at +140, I got him at +110, and he's now at -110 and will probably be favored by Saturday morning.

I have 10u on him -- legitimately 10% of my bankroll, because Cowboy is just nothing to write home about. He did look good in his last fight, but Peter Sobotka isn't as talented as Shavkat.

Maybe if it was Frank Sobotka from The Wire...

 

[BigSteve]

Cowboy is the definition of a gatekeeper.

He has some solid wins, but he tends to fade in almost every fight.

Watching tape on Shavkat -- he's just basically better than Alex everywhere.

He can match him on the feet, his ground game is as good as Cowboy's(his wrestling is better). His cardio is better, he's younger, more durable, and has more ways to win this fight, especially after round 1.

I think he opened at +140, I got him at +110, and he's now at -110 and will probably be favored by Saturday morning.

I have 10u on him -- legitimately 10% of my bankroll, because Cowboy is just nothing to write home about. He did look good in his last fight, but Peter Sobotka isn't as talented as Shavkat.

Maybe if it was Frank Sobotka from The Wire...

Good show, just watching it for the first time.

 

[2020Tracked]

10 units on Shavkat? Bold move, definitely no way Shavkat has faced an athlete like Cowboy on the Kazakh regional scene, but the line opening so wide obviously did seem off to a lot of people

 

[Monster Meat]

Everyone has a take on the main event and here is my 2c:

While I respect those taking a shot and betting Justin at great dog odds I really don't think Justin has much for Khabib. Khabib is a technician and has honed his craft over many years. Every hand position and movement is practiced and strategic.

Justin on the other hand is really just a high level brawler (that might be selling him short but thats my honest opinion). It wasn't long ago that he suffered back to back KO/TKO losses to Poirier and Alvarez. Justin did return much better vs. Ferguson and seemed to reinvent his style to an extent. Even taking into consideration Justin's improvements and becoming Gaethje 2.0 I still don't think he has much for Khabib.

The 2 things Justin likes to do most will get him taken down. Those 2 things are throwing leg kicks and walking forward with the shell guard. Throwing a leg kick makes one very susceptible to getting take down. Being a pressure fighter, which Justin is also opens one to being taken down. Therefore, I really don't see how Justin approaches this fight without being on his back for long periods at a time. Can Justin get up once he is taken down? Unlikely, in my opinion.

Justin basically has 30 seconds to a minute (if he is lucky) at the beginning of each round to inflict max damage while standing before he ends up on his back. In a nutshell, I would say Justin has a punchers chance. Justin is a sloppy and reckless fighter when compared to Khabib's polished grappling skillset.

The main chance I see for Justin is to land something big at the beginning of round 3,4 or 5 when both guys are tired and forced to start standing.

Good luck to Justin. I love the guy but I think he ends up on bottom getting manhandled over 5 rounds.

did you see what he did to Ferguson? Not saying he’s going to do the same to Khabib but this is clearly a different version of Justin . In his last few fights he seems to be more calculated and less reckless. His standup was so good in the last fight nobody does that to Ferguson.

 

[Monster Meat]

Good show, just watching it for the first time.

ahhh man one of the best shows ever

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

I'm torn on the Kenney fight. He may be too high on himself from starching Smolka and having a punching bag in Alateng and come out striking. He didn't have a proper camp for this so he's still in sprawl and brawl conditioning. If he doesn't try to take Wood down, then I think he'll lose. He should have a big grappling advantage and with Chris Cariaso in his corner I would think he would use it, but I have some doubts. It could be a live bet situation. I think the Jung fight might be similar where Alvey could wall and stall or get takedowns and win a decision or Jung could look like a college student just fighting for extra money.

Also, holy shit. Walt looks like a murderer. He looked terrible after that thing with his daughter and in the Overeem fight. Thinking about playing him bigger than just a hedge now. His kicks are really telegraphed and unlikely to do anything to a guy like Volkov, but his hands are powerful and accurate. Walt also claimed he has a blast double, but I doubt his top control against a bjj brown belt like Volkov. Volkov landed an RNC on Ivanov and avoided Werdum's weird half guard sweep back take move.


Also also, Technical Tim and Gugabe breakdown. Thought it was worth a listen. They like Ankalaev and Yakovlev so that gives me some confidence. Probably gonna avoid the Tuivasa/Struve fight.

 

[BigSteve]

 

[Gugabe]

Don't think Shavkat's a 10 unit man, but yeah there's a huge range in how Brazilian Cowboy shows up depending on mood/starsigns/how many of his children he can remember the names of.

Might touch Oliviera if he hits dog odds, but gigantic range of possibilities.

 

[Bestonian]

Jojua vs Maverick
Jojua ML @ 4.45
Two grapplers, Maverick riding a small hype due to dominating subpar competition. Maverick prefers to take her fights to the ground but unfortunately for her, Jojua holds a higher belt in bjj and is a tough kazakh girl.
Either girl could get the sub but value is super clear for me and I think Maverick will play into Jojua's strengths.

-
Alvey vs Un Jung
over 1.5 rounds @ 1.67 odds

Alvey stupid hard to knock out but sucks otherwise.
-
Shakirova vs Murphy
Shakirova ML @ 3.10

Murphy lives up to her nickname "Lucky" because that's what she is. Murphy is an aging WMMA fighter (nearing 40 year olds) who has never excelled in anything, except for punching surprisingly hard for a woman.

I predict a very close scrap and cap this at evens, but I think Shakirova is the minute winner here. Clear value on Shakirova.

Glhf get that paper

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

You don't look at what level Cannonier is, XociDe, you have to look at the match-up at hand. Which is the following:
My simplistic read on Whittaker's fights is he is looking good against grapplers/wrestlers. Dedicated strikers present big problems for him. Remember the struggle against the inconsistent Uriah Hall? Wonderboy whooped him. Overall - people who have deep striking arsenal and/or are not afraid to stand up with him. Cannonier may be not the precise sniper Izzy or Wonderboy are, but he has horsepower and is fearless in this weighclass. This is fucking dangerous fight for Rob in my humble opinion. Rob should wrestlefuck him, if he stands I honestly don't see him winning.

Till isn't a good striker? Whittaker did pretty well against him. Looks like Whittaker didn't train with Nogueira, he just met him at Fight Island so my Covid concerns are minimized.

Dan Hardy's breakdown covers this matchup pretty well.



The biggest thing I have against Whittaker is his mentality. He doesn't seem to have his heart in the game and his media day interview has me questioning his motivation. His evasive striking is funky and he has the takedown threat, but Cannonier's uppercut is really clean and Hardy thinks the same thing I do about the takedowns. I haven't seen Whittaker work a tiring clinch gameplan to reduce the striking speed/cardio and getting that close is gonna expose him to leg kicks and big counter punches so I doubt the grappling will play into this. I'm starting to like Cannonier more, but the TKO/ITD props aren't high enough for me. Lots of unproven things that will be proven and I hate betting on unknowns.

Yeah, he will fold, but from somebody with a bit more precise punches and who could throw hard past the 2 minute mark of the 1st round. I don't rate Tai at all. He is terrible. He has a couple of wild bursts in him, and that's it, if Struve manages to not get touched clean for two minutes, he should roll through. For real this should be a gimme fight for Struve, Tuivasa is so clueless on the ground, even for a heavyweight standard his grappling is bad. Struve's wrestling is bad, but I think a bodylock should be all that he needs to take Tai down. The fact that this is pick em fight is strange to me, but what do I know, right?

Struve has a decent hip toss/throw thing that he does well. Tuivasa didn't camp at AKA for this so I doubt his chances. He's tko or bust and Struve could force him to play at range for 3 rounds OR go for the sub. Struve does have striking defense issues and has never really used his range well, but the Tuivasa TKO prop and Struve SUB/DEC props aren't high enough for me. Gonna pass.

 

[jfrito]

Seriously. Dude looked like a killer in his last fight. Super crisp striking but has been unreliable before for no good reason at all.

the nsac doesnt exist on fight island, neither does usada. its the new brazil, just saying.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Cutelaba a +250 dog? This is a rematch from February with that really weird finish where Cutelaba blocked like 8/10 blows and the ref got scared just becuase Ankalaev was spamming telegraphed head kicks Cutelaba took to the forearms.

What were the odds going into that Feb matchup?

 

[t6p]

Cutelaba a +250 dog? This is a rematch from February with that really weird finish where Cutelaba blocked like 8/10 blows and the ref got scared just becuase Ankalaev was spamming telegraphed head kicks Cutelaba took to the forearms.

What were the odds going into that Feb matchup?

BetOnline set the opening line at +300 (ask me how I know, that stoppage was painful), but he closed in the +175/+185 range.

 

[HockeyBjj]

BetOnline set the opening line at +300 (ask me how I know, that stoppage was painful), but he closed in the +175/+185 range.

Thanks for the feedback there. So went from +180 to +250 based on just a W in the stat sheet. Think I’ll take a stab there then.

Damn. Missing a chance at 3:1 payout because of that bad of a ref move. I get betting Mma has plenty of risks if a ref fudging up or stupid judges, but that one was particularly bad

 

[LEMONZEST]

did you see what he did to Ferguson?

Of course. I am not here to shit talk Ferguson but he is the opposite of Khabib when it comes to controlling where the fight takes place. Ferguson is all about scrambles and sometimes gives up rounds where he accepts bottom getting beat up like when he fought Lee.