UFC 257: McGregor vs. Poirier 2 Official Bets

benebox said:
£100 Connor rd 1 +240 to win £240
£50 Connor rd 2 +500 to win £250

£150 Hooker -138 to win £109.5

£600 Muradov -138 to win £436 *

£550 Junior +110 to win £605 *
£50 Junior sub +400 to win £200

£150 McMann -118 to win £122.5 *May live bet Peña after rd 1

£100 Rountree rd 1 +120 to win £120

£50 Albazi Sub +600 to win £300

*I plan to hedge these to a unit (£150) each close to fight time.
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Updated bets

£150 Junior +169 to win £254

£185 Muradov +108 to win £200
 
shankmcgank said:
I saw almost every bet had him in it.

I was worried for you, cause if he lost it screwed all your tickets :(
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its my fault for trusting him, there's always a weak spot in a parlay and I'm learning to find it. fuck i hate that guy*.

Edit:
*: myself
 
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guaton said:
its my fault for trusting him, there's always a weak spot in a parlay and I'm learning to find it.
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You're learning to find the weak spot? Quit bullshitting yourself. <45>

The only thing you might learn here is that blowing up half your bets/multis on one guy is a fail.
 
For all the betters that went big on Eye ... hate to say it but I told you so.

Calderwood is just too good at Kickboxing and Eye isn't good enough to get her on the ground which forces Eye to stand up and lose on the inside.

Eye is consistently landing that weird straight left to the body but this isn't a 5 round fight.

Another L for Eye ... :(
 
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+7u
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Frustrating card to cap. Decided to pass on McMann-Pena and Calderwood-Eye, although I have a live-bet strategy for the former. I was absolutely certain that Hooker would be value at small minus odds, but watching tape closely made me seriously re-evaluate and now I'm passing, too. However, there is definitely value on the main event;

3u on Poirier at +250
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I was so, so salty all night since I missed about a dozen great live-bet spots. I literally wrote to @BigSteve my plan for Pena-McMann

Figured out the play for Pena-McMann. It's to go for the live-bet.

McMann's wrestling prowess goes down a lot after round 1, and the question is whether she can win either 2 or 3 against Pena, who has better cardio and is much better off her back.

I would love to live-bet Pena at far more significant plus numbers after round 1. Alternatively, if Pena somehow wins round 1, I would be willing to bet her at a wide range of minus numbers, since that signals that McMann has almost no chance of victory.
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and STILL didn't pull the trigger at +250 after round 1. I also waffled on Prachnio at +440 against Rountree in round 3 for whatever dumb reason and just barely missed Tsarukyan at -365 early in round 2. Frustrating as hell. I just need to fucking pull the trigger on my live-bets. They're literally almost never bad.

Did live-bet

1.2u on ZZ at -120 after round 1 (loss)
1u on Evloev at -1086 (win)
2u on Calderwood at -446 (win)

Thankfully, my main event play paid off, leaving me +6.84u on the night.

My reads were fairly on-point. I had a lean for Calderwood but thought it might be close. Little did I know what awful physical condition and preparation Eye would be in. And while I initially wanted to join the bandwagon for Hooker, I saw some very concerning things on tape that ALMOST made me bet Chandler, but at least stopped me from playing the Hangman.

No regrets on the small ZZ play. He won round 1, appeared to have the better hands, even got a surprise takedown, and was yet inexplicably the same odds as he was pre-fight.

Anywho, a nice bounceback event. Definitely needed that.
 
£100 Connor rd 1 +240 to win £240
£50 Connor rd 2 +500 to win £250

£150 Hooker -138 to win £109.5

£185 Muradov +108 to win £200

£150 Junior +169 to win £254
£50 Junior sub +400 to win £200

£150 McMann -118 to win £122.5 *May live bet Peña after rd 1
*£50 Live bet Peña rd 2 +300 to win £150

£100 Rountree rd 1 +120 to win £120

£50 Albazi Sub +600 to win £300
...........................
Net Profit: -£450

*Terrible night, Im glad I somehow came out of it only 3 units down.
 
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I cashed out a £200 bet on Conor like 15 minutes before the fight. I had such a bad feeling after being so confident for like 2 months.

Jesus.
 
Invictis said:
$300 Chandler +136 to win $408
$100 Jessica Eye +105 to win $105
$100 Poirier Sub +1200 to win $1200
$50 Chandler via TKO/Decision to win $85(FanDuel super boost)
$50 Conor KO/TKO in rounds 1/2 +140 to win $70(FanDuel super boost)

Basically watching the main event for fun, as if neither of those bets hit, it's not a big deal. The Dustin by sub is a long shot, but those odds are slightly off. I really think Chandler gets it done against Hooker. And I've always thought JoJo is dogshit, and Jessica Eye should be physically stronger and able to take her down and grind out rounds.
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408-100-100+85-50+360-50-50

+243, and then I added 100 extra on Chandler ITD @ +360, so +503 for the night.

Meh. Should've bet on Dustin ML instead of that sub prop, but +1200 was juicy. As soon as he had Conor's leg compromised, I was yelling for him to go for the TD.

But it is what it is, can't be mad at a winning night.

edit: forgot I added 50 on Frevola and 50 on Lentz. Adjusted my winnings to reflect that.
 
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BigSteve said:
Evloev RD3/DEC 300 to win 200

McMann 800 to win 763

Khalil RD1 KO 153 to win 300

Shoeface 308 to win 400 ( Cashed out -62 )
Fight starts RD3 385 to win 200

Muradov 400 to win 408
Sanchez DEC 100 to win 250

Eye RD3/DEC 200 to win 300

Hooker 413 to win 300

Connor 1,600 to win 833
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Added pre bet :

Tavares 100 to win 110
Connor RD1 200
Connor U2.5 400

-3,006 = -7.5u What can I say. When doing fk all research I should really lower my stakes, not the other way around. Plain and simple got greedy and very sloppy. But escaped with half a unit for the month, gota look at the positives lol.
 
Winning bets
Poirier (live)
Muradov over 2.5
Rodriguez ML
Rodriguez KO (+1350)
Prachnio (live)
Tavares (live)
Pena (live)

Losers
Hooker (biggest loss)
Prach/Roundtree under1.5
Muradov dec
A handful of small parlays and round props

I made about 400 bucks
 
bendoman said:
McGregor KO/TKO in round 2 or 3 10u @ +300 (Refunds if Conor loses)
McGregor vs Porier over 1.5 4u @ -120
Porier SUB 1u @ +1000

Eye 2u @ +100
Muradov 4u @ -161
Chandler 7u @ +100
Shoeface 5u @ +100
Pena DEC 2u @ +260
Rountree vs Prachinio over 1.5 3u @ +150

Still have tiny unit sizes.
Finished the last 4 events solidly in the green so I'm starting to gain confidence.
Didn't give this weeks picks much thought though.
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McGregor KO/TKO in round 2 or 3 10u @ +300 (Refunded as a free bet)
McGregor vs Porier over 1.5 4u @ -120
Porier SUB 1u @ +1000

Eye 2u @ +100
Muradov 4u @ -161
Chandler 7u @ +100
Shoeface 5u @ +100
Pena DEC 2u @ +260
Rountree vs Prachinio over 1.5 3u @ +150

With the McGregor bet being refunded I somehow managed to end up +7u.
Got pretty lucky there I think but that still makes 5 positive UFC events in a row.
 
DonQ94 said:
Don't really like this card much for betting, so mainly looking to livebet.
My only two prebets so far:
Makhmud Muradov ML 40 @ 1.77
Juliana Pena ML 20 @ 2.10
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Both prebets cash. Didn't bet anything else because I fell asleep during Lentz - Evloev fight... Not the right card to fall asleep on, absolute bonker results<{danawhoah}>
 
benebox said:
£100 Connor rd 1 +240 to win £240
£50 Connor rd 2 +500 to win £250

£150 Hooker -138 to win £109.5

£600 Muradov -138 to win £436 *

£550 Junior +110 to win £605 *
£50 Junior sub +400 to win £200

£150 McMann -118 to win £122.5 *May live bet Peña after rd 1

£100 Rountree rd 1 +120 to win £120

£50 Albazi Sub +600 to win £300

*I plan to hedge these to a unit (£150) each close to fight time.
Click to expand...


Dam
 
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