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UFC 261: Usman vs Masvidal 2 official thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2020Tracked, Apr 18, 2021.

  1. When's the last time she landed over 100?

    42 landed over 5 rounds vs Liz Carmouche. 62 against Maia over 5 rounds.

    Both inferior fighters to Andrade.

    Valentina has fallen in love with her wrestling, and has taken a very low risk style of fighting in her reign at 125.

    It's been smart, but she can't do that against Andrade, who will bring the fight to her.
     
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  2. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    I think we get Zhang going up to fight Valentina next
     
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  3. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    she has really bad striking defense Joana landed 225 significant strikes, probably a ufc record in women's mma. Her SAPM is 5.26 and she was finished by Zhang Weili in the 1st round who is much smaller.

    The bet here is actually a 1st round ko, Valentina is going to kick her head off her shoulders, she is the perfect height that makes it so easy for her. She has the same defensive skills as Mike Perry. In the Rose fight she ate the jab repeatedly and had no answer for it. I cant see any path to victory, too small and no defense.

    its possible.
     
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  4. Hard to compare a 24 year old Andrade going up against a prime JJ @ 115 to this fight.

    Kickboxing has taken a backseat to Valentina's wrestling as of recently.

    The chances of taking down a 5'2 tank in Andrade, who has a low center of gravity, is rather low. Andrade has strength Valentina hasn't had to deal with since Nunes.

    Andrade landed 71 significant strikes in her fight with Rose. 92 vs Torres, 141 vs Gadelha. All these being 3 round fights.

    Andrade is a BJJ black belt, she's going to be tough to submit, tough to wrestle with, and tough to deal with in clinch positions.

    Valentina has looked flawless against absolute trash competition.

    If this stays standing for 25 minutes, Valentina wins. She's the crisper, more technical striker.

    But Andrade is a fucking pitbull that will fight for my money the whole fight, and presents a whole load of problems that Valentina hasn't had to deal with recently.

    Andrade has also shown great cardio, against Rose she looked like she was just getting started in round 3.

    I don't think she has to win in the first round by any means. I think if she wins, it's probably a close decision.

    This fight in general is going to be WAY closer than the line indicates, so I'm all over Andrade in this spot.
     
  5. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    I think Andrade generally has a round, maybe two, of being dangerous and then she becomes predictable, just walking into exchanges swinging. Shevchenko probably just point fights, keeps to the outside and picks and pokes for 5 rounds as Jessica slowly loses more and more steam and accrues more damage.
     
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  6. Captain Chesapeake Blue Belt

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    What has Andrade improved since then though? She was a seasoned vet at 24 and many expected her to beat JJ.

    why would Valentina game plan to wrestle? She should do exactly what Joanna did, work behind her jab and avoid long exchanges in the pocket. Stuff the takedowns. Win the clinch battles.

    that’s not going to be difficult for shevchenko. Just because she’s been using wrestling doesnt mean she’s forgotten how to be a counterpuncher. I think it’s rare that Andrades pressure style would have success against shevchenko.

    stylistically it’s a bad match for Andrade.

    could she win a decision? Sure. I think with her aggression combined with high volume she could take a decision. That’s her most likely path to victory imo. Maybe she lands the bigger shots and gets more presssure and judges reward that vs the counter puncher.
     
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  7. PolarBearPaulVarelans Brown Belt

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    I couldn't find this from a simple search, but is the Octagon size back to what it regularly is for this PPV, i.e. larger than the small cage they used at the Apex?
     
  8. Dingaling Purple Belt

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    Yes
     
  9. AK-47 Orange Belt

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    I did say recently and that’s still true. All his recent wins have been by stoppage. I agree earlier in his career he had a shit ton of decision losses. But over the last few years it’s been different. You mention Darren Till and Ben Askren. Both guys who had never been KOd before that fight in their careers. You bring up Maia who himself was on a roll and looking great at that point and doesn’t exactly have a youth demanding style. All things considered I still give it to Usman 7 times out of 10. But this time I’m playing Masivdal ITD.
     
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  10. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    I don't see much of an edge here. Both fighters will cancel each other in grappling, but Andrade can't cancel Valentina in striking, I would even give the bjj edge to Val, she has rolled with better bjj black belts like Amanda and never got subbed, while Andrade has been subbed twice and by a mma grappler who is a freestyle generalist in mma.

    The final nail for me is how Valentina can lose to Andrade but can beat Holly Holm and get a split decision loss to Nunes. Which is basically a draw or a win ,if different judges were present. From simple mma math perspective , it just don't make sense. While not the best system for picking fights, it gives you a decent understanding at where their skill level is at. If you win I'll never question any of your picks again. Credit deserved you did pick Dern over Nina.
     
  11. BigDramaShow26 Brown Belt

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    I used to think that too, but after the Izzy situation I feel like UFC will try and let that fight marinate more.
     
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  12. Post 2 Decision Gold Belt

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    What's all this talk about Andrade?

    She's the perfect opponent stylistically for Shevchenko to headkick KO back to Bolivia
     
  13. Captain Chesapeake Blue Belt

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    Mike Tyson reference. Strong work
     
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  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I would have agreed before that Rose fight. Andrade showed something in Rd 3 of that one. Better timing, still good movement, etc.

    Still think Valentina is too good though.
     
  15. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Why are people acting like Shevchenko grappling is something new? She has sub wins as far back as 2003. Even in her Muay Thai career she was very throw and trip heavy which isn't much of a surprise when before that she was a national Judo champion. Her MMA fight with Joanna wasn't much different to her first three bouts with her.
     
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  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Because when she came into the UFC there was no 125 lb division so she was fighting girls bigger than she was (Holm, Nunes, etc) and that's the first impression people got. Not many had followed her muy thai career. And she was too undersized to go grapple heavy vs the bigger 135 lb'ers (she did get Nunes on her back in their first fight in Rd 3 but that was more about Nunes gassing horribly). At 125 she's stronger physically than most girls. She doesn't have to use technique to overcome size and strength, she has both vs girls her own size.
     
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  17. Card Silver Belt

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    Everyone made weight... but staredowns aren't until 4 PM EST.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2021
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  18. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    She's been outgrappled less at 125 but her offence with it is similar, she hit takedowns in all of her UFC fights at 135 except I think Nunes in the rematch. Had Pena, Kaufman and Holm all on their backs for extended periods. She's got the reputation of someone who came up as a pure striker but it's never really been the case.
     
  19. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    She took Holm down? Seriously? I remember that as all striking but it's been forever since I've seen it. Pena is decent but really is just levels below Val on every level so yeah not that surprising I suppose. I don't remember the Kaufman fight honestly.

    Val has definitely mixed in some grappling throughout, I agree she's never been a pure striker. She did lean on it more when she was undersized though because her striking technique was enough to overcome that size edge. Now at 125 she's become more grappling-centric it seems, depending on opponent.
     
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  20. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    IMO Judo is an overlooked martial art within the MMA world. Everyone always talks about boxing, wrestling, BJJ, and MT which are obviously the foundation of MMA. I like to take note of fighters with a Judo background and see how they perform. They usually show tremendous balance and do well versus takedown attempts as they just understand grips and weight transfer intuitively.
     
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