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UFC 261: Usman vs Masvidal 2 official thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by 2020Tracked, Apr 18, 2021.

  1. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Judo is probably the best base to have for a striker if they want to be a good counterwrestler, yeah. Great judo players for sure have great balance and they get a feel for the shifting weight and where their opponent is trying to apply leverage.
     
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  2. Card Silver Belt

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    Everyone made weight.

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  3. orgazmo Purple Belt

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    Why is this guy's ass so high up? It's bothering me, and his posture is terrible.
     
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  4. Wood530 White Belt

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    Lol
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Alright, time for some thoughts on this card. Not much tape but did a little. Some of this is off the cuff from memory, take it for what it's worth. I'm skipping the fights where I don't know/can't remember one or both fighters of course.

    Mavidal/Usman

    Likely looks similar to last time. Rematches often look much different, Masvidal full camp...but I'm not sure how much he could do to stay out of the clinch spots that he got stuck in last time. Maybe his cardio will be better to allow him to get off the cage quicker and not have to rest there so much with his back against it? His TDD is okay, but Usman will still likely land some. Masvidal has a chance if he lands clean of course (though he's really not a big power puncher, he cracks...okay, but he's not packing dynamite in his hands). Wouldn't bet this at all at current odds probably, not even any props that stand out.

    Weili/Rose

    Rose has the footwork and boxing to look good early, I could see her frustrating Weili for a round or 2. But after that...I think we see a combination of Weili finding her range and Rose slowing down. I think Weili is more durable and hits much harder. She faced adversity vs JJ so we've seen her come through that. I like her to get a late finish here, I'll say rd 4. I like her KO/TKO line a little around +250.

    Andrade/Valentina

    Andrade is obviously a little powerhouse, but she's facing the best WMMA fighter on the planet imo, probably the best ever. Andrade showed me a lot in rd 3 vs Rose, she still had energy and was being aggressive and had her best round. That tells me maybe the move up in weight actually helped her cardio? Valentina has of course looked dominant (barring a round vs Maia) in every aspect of MMA. I think Val likely lights Rose up with superior technique, Andrade tends to wing her power shots most of the time. Valentina will look at that tape and realize she can land at will with straight shots down the middle that get there first. Andrade's power and physical strength present unique challenges, but Valentina is likely up to the task. I just wouldn't pay the juice on her. Hard pass.

    Weidman/Hall

    I think this is a case where Weidman's inactivity was a serious blessing. We've seen some examples where guys look like their chin's are totally shot, but they take time off and seem to come back and be able to eat punches a bit better. This **might** be the case with Chris. He got tagged a few times vs Akdmedov and handled it. And while Hall of course always has those flashes of brilliance...he's just so low volume and seemingly disinterested for stretches. When Weidman was the dog I thought there was value, now...probably not. I do think his decision line around +200 looks good though. I could see him winning the first 2 rounds and being really tired rd 3 but surviving. I could also see Hall clipping him and ending it, but lesser chance of that imo.

    Smith/Crute

    Smith seems to be on the decline, Crute on the rise. I think Crute will bring the fight to Smith which will give Smith a chance to land something big, but more likely Crute takes him down and works from top position. Texeira gave Smith a life-altering beating in that fight, the kind that ages a fighter quickly. And Crute won't gift Smith a triangle like Clark did. Crute is slick and powerful, I think he breaks Smith down and gets a late finish or wins a pretty easy UD. Crute rd 3 +1000 and Crute dec +260 are the plays imo.

    Oliveira/Brown

    Crazy Cowboy has been more D-1 Cowboy lately, he seems to want to clinch and grapple mostly. Brown is okay but not special, but he **should** be able to avoid the clinch and force Oliveira into more of a brawl. That's more just gut feeling than anything, but I think we see a finish in this one. Someone lands big or Oliveira gets mount for a gnp finish. I think Brown is the more likely of the two to land a big strike standing though. Under 2.5 at +110 I think has value.

    Grant/Sekulic

    I know nothing about Sekulic.

    Allen/Roberson

    Allen's last effort vs Strickland was a head scratcher. He's a grappler, and decided to never try to force any grappling and instead stood with a superior striker and got butchered. I can't imagine him doing that again. The question is whether he can get Roberson down or not. I think at some point he does, and uses his superior grappling to get to a dominant position and finish. Allen sub +170 or Allen itd +130 maybe a little value, maybe Roberson KO +370 if you doubt Allen's ability to get it to the mat.

    All of the earlier fights have at least 1 fighter I haven't seen or can't remember, no point on me commenting.

    Good luck guys, get that cash!
     
  6. Init2winit White Belt

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    nothing risky about sure money!
     
  7. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    I'd say there are some live dogs, Smith has a path, Rose, Roberson and Hall, but I just don't trust any of them enough to actually bet them.

    Like the GTD in the Smith/Crute fight, Smith is durable if little else, Roberson has a good shot at a finish and so does Hall, simular dynamics to those fights. Rose is more live early, I think she catches Zhang hard a few times but I'm not sure it will be enough to finish and the fight likely goes to the cards
     
  8. Init2winit White Belt

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    Its going down today! $4500 on the table!!
     
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  9. Whoa Nelly Green Belt

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    lost a chunk playing dumb casino games last night.
    put my last 100 on masvidal to finish.

    if it wins, i'm taking that 500 and going straight to roulette. one big beT

     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2021
  10. Whoa Nelly Green Belt

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    getting these vibes
     

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  11. Captain Chesapeake Green Belt

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    Playing rose rds 1-3 all over +1000, the under 4.5 at + money, rose itd +400 and rose ml +170

    odds are too good to pass up.

    Have ml plays on crute, brown, hall, liang, Selukic, Connelly and Molina.

    some prop bets on Allen. Few over/under plays. Like the over in Allen/Roberson and crute/smith a lot. Under for rose/zhang. Over brown/olivera
     
    Invictis likes this.
  12. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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  13. Aranha21 Green Belt

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    I've got a 3 fight parlay going at 7.6/1 of Jenkins and Loughnane from PFL last night, and Usman. I'll keep that going and hopefully win my £172. I'm gonna play Crute and Hall both by TKO/KO at 10/1 for £40.

    This has been a good weekend for me so far!
    I've also won on a Held/Collard duo last night, and just now had Felix Cash by KO on even odds for £100 returns as well.
     
    Kamais_Ookin likes this.
  14. jrleclerc88 Brown Belt

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    Money coming in on weidman. Line was stuck at -110 for both but weidman at -150 now. Hope weidman can have a good performance. Sucks to see weidman look/talk to his kids after some of his losses
     
    Kamais_Ookin likes this.
  15. A lot of money coming in on Masvidal.

    Also Rose is boosted to +190 on DK
     
  16. Barkus Brown Belt

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    I want to fade Weidman so bad but him looking in better shape scared me off.
     
  17. jrleclerc88 Brown Belt

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    The fact that weidman already k.o'd hall + weidmans wrestling could make hall hesitant. Hall was losing to anderson for a couple rounds in his last fight he can't be as inactive tonight. We'll find out soon enough
     
    Barkus likes this.
  18. Kamais_Ookin Red Belt

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    Was very wrong about valentina, she could have been a much bigger favorite tbh. She's the GWOAT.
     
    Invictis likes this.
  19. Same.

    I thought she'd look like less than a -455 favorite, but she looked exactly the part.

    I thought Andrade would have more of a strength advantage in the clinch and on the ground. I knew her stand-up would be far inferior, but I thought she'd have much better success against the cage than she did.

    After she failed on the single leg in round 2, I knew it was over.
     
  20. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    bad night for china 0-4
     

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