UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane - Discussion Thread

Noel Wards said:
Probably did take years of his life. I won't bet on Jose unless he takes a few more steps down in level in the following year or two.

However, he did look durable against Vera. It's been a while now from it. It's 3 round Aldo, I see cardio having little play.

Munhoz undoubtedly has the chin edge. Not the height or reach, striking or grappling.

It is MMA math. I think it illustrates levels. If an ollllddd Frankie Edgar can edge him out, I think Aldo can comfortably.

He'll lose to Yan tho.
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I thibk aldo can beat yan in a 3 rd fight
 
DeceptaKhan said:
Kape SHOULD win...But he SHOULD have won his last 2 fights as well, hes just not a guy that will fight for your money, its frustrating to watch
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Yep. When he lets his hands go the skills are clearly there. But he fucks around and gives rounds away.
 
Looking back, does anyone know why Osborne was a favorite over Kelleher?
 
Noel Wards said:
Could middle-aged Edgar given Yan his toughest UFC fight yet?
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Sorry I guess he didn't say he would beat him but "toughest fight yet" is also laughable.

Either way, I think y'all underestimating my baby boy Luque. Dude's too dangerous imo
 
TrueAscension said:
Sorry I guess he didn't say he would beat him but "toughest fight yet" is also laughable.

Either way, I think y'all underestimating my baby boy Luque. Dude's too dangerous imo
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You misunderstood again.

I never said Edgar would give him his toughest fight in the UFC. I was saying Jose Aldo did.

Tying in to the point 38 year old Frankie edged Pedro out, I think Jose will do so comfortable.
 
What am I missing here on this Munoz line? I agree he should be the favorite but if he can't take Simmons down is this not a 50-50 fight?
 
my 2 cents on fights I have taped so far:

Simmons/Munoz Jr. : Low-level fight. Thought Munoz might be a lock here, the more tape I have done the more its a pass. Munoz could get on top and finish. Simon will have big strength and athletism advantage. He can get this fight down easy if he wants to. I have seen almost 5 fights/ amateur or pro where he gets takedowns right into triangles or armbars. He then picks up his opponents and slams them and gets out. Sometimes he gets the KO. No reason why he can't do that to Munoz. Munoz could also sub him, dont have a great read on which will happen. Both have been fighting absolute cans. Simon seems to have decent all-around grappling and GNP, although he is a blue belt compared to Munoz black belt. Both are green in the standup too. Pass fight for me, wouldn't be surprised at a Munoz finish, Simmon finish or either one to grind out a hard fought win.

Jons/ADS: Taped this fight beforehand, using the same notes. Jons fights very smart, moves around, stays out of danger, counters and mixes in takedowns. ADS is the opposite, keeps coming forward and eats a lot of shots. Jons will get TD's easy if he wants them, ADS loves dropping down for a guillotine. Jons will most likely get a DEC, but im not feeling a sweat at these odds. His style can sometimes not be very judge-friendly, and ADS will keep coming forward.

Alonzo/Herman : Strange fight. I keep jumping between an easy win for Alonzo and a close 3 round grind. Alonzo has a massive speed, athletism and power advantage. He could very well get Herman out of there in the first, who has been hurt in the first by Cummings, Slow Mike and Vilante of all people. Herman is still quite durable and gritty, and if it goes longer it might be close. Alonzo has never won a DEC. I absolutely hate how he chooses to clinch with every fighter even though he has a power advantage. Wouldnt be surprised if he keeps closing the distance on Herman and then clinches him, giving Herman the fight he wants.He lost a DEC to Clark by constantly clinching him and then getting out hustled. Clark has a massive cardio and athletism advantage over Herman though, who is plodding and doesn't shoot for double legs. If you clinch Alonzo, he is super hard to TD. Bad matchup for Herman, if Alonzo fights like a complete idiot I can see it being a sweat.
 
BigSteve said:
my 2 cents on fights I have taped so far:

Simmons/Munoz Jr. : Low-level fight. Thought Munoz might be a lock here, the more tape I have done the more its a pass. Munoz could get on top and finish. Simon will have big strength and athletism advantage. He can get this fight down easy if he wants to. I have seen almost 5 fights/ amateur or pro where he gets takedowns right into triangles or armbars. He then picks up his opponents and slams them and gets out. Sometimes he gets the KO. No reason why he can't do that to Munoz. Munoz could also sub him, dont have a great read on which will happen. Both have been fighting absolute cans. Simon seems to have decent all-around grappling and GNP, although he is a blue belt compared to Munoz black belt. Both are green in the standup too. Pass fight for me, wouldn't be surprised at a Munoz finish, Simmon finish or either one to grind out a hard fought win.

Jons/ADS: Taped this fight beforehand, using the same notes. Jons fights very smart, moves around, stays out of danger, counters and mixes in takedowns. ADS is the opposite, keeps coming forward and eats a lot of shots. Jons will get TD's easy if he wants them, ADS loves dropping down for a guillotine. Jons will most likely get a DEC, but im not feeling a sweat at these odds. His style can sometimes not be very judge-friendly, and ADS will keep coming forward.

Alonzo/Herman : Strange fight. I keep jumping between an easy win for Alonzo and a close 3 round grind. Alonzo has a massive speed, athletism and power advantage. He could very well get Herman out of there in the first, who has been hurt in the first by Cummings, Slow Mike and Vilante of all people. Herman is still quite durable and gritty, and if it goes longer it might be close. Alonzo has never won a DEC. I absolutely hate how he chooses to clinch with every fighter even though he has a power advantage. Wouldnt be surprised if he keeps closing the distance on Herman and then clinches him, giving Herman the fight he wants.He lost a DEC to Clark by constantly clinching him and then getting out hustled. Clark has a massive cardio and athletism advantage over Herman though, who is plodding and doesn't shoot for double legs. If you clinch Alonzo, he is super hard to TD. Bad matchup for Herman, if Alonzo fights like a complete idiot I can see it being a sweat.
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I appreciate your reads on fights.
 
TrueAscension said:
Sorry I guess he didn't say he would beat him but "toughest fight yet" is also laughable.

Either way, I think y'all underestimating my baby boy Luque. Dude's too dangerous imo
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I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't think I'm underestimating him. Luque is damn good. To me it's just a stylistically really tough fight for him. Bigger, stronger guy who only wants to grapple and who is a beast with top position.

Believe me I'm not gonna be shocked if Luque catches Mike and puts him away. If the line opened Chiesa -130 and Luque +110 no way would I have been jumping to get a big play on it. That's pretty close to where I cap it, maybe Chiesa -150ish. I just loved Chiesa +130.
 
SportsAndShiitake said:
What am I missing here on this Munoz line? I agree he should be the favorite but if he can't take Simmons down is this not a 50-50 fight?
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Simmons d3 wrestler . Munoz knows this. But the selling point for Munoz is his faster hands and nice kicks. He beat Nate madness imo if he didn't stop kicking him in the nuts. Munoz has good bjj too to keep Simmons from laying and praying.
 
Very interesting betting card!

- I like Chiesa as a dog here. Luque is solid but he doesn't wow me. He likes to fight in the pocket and take damage to inflict it. Chiesa should have all the opportunity in the world to get his hands on him and make this a grappling match. A trip here, a takedown there and suddenly we've got a coin flip fight. I'll roll the dice.

- Veeeerrryyyy surprised at the line on Munhoz vs Aldo. If you asked me point-blank who wins that fight I'd ask you what advantage Munhoz has besides his chin? 3 round fight favors Aldo. However, as with all fighters who've been around forever, you have to wonder when Father Time will strike midnight for Aldo. What do the books know? Is this a bad line or do they know what's up?

- Gane should box BB's face off. But there is no way I'm fading BB in any way, shape or form. Shit, if I have a good card leading up to the main event I might sprinkle on BB to pull out another improbable win. And I say improbable because I really don't know what his path to victory is other than landing a kill-shot that nobody has been able to remotely come close to on Gane.

- Karolina should not be a fav over anybody. Auto bet Penne.

- Another surprising line on Song-Kenney. The books really have Song at almost a pick 'em vs Kenney? Really? I thought Kenney would be a bit more of a favorite. I have to review this matchup closer. I might be missing something.

- Love Fiziev. His money line is so steep. Might play his decision line. Green should be out-matched here but he is tough and crafty. Would *slightly* surprise me to see him get slept here.
 
taped some more fights, day off, and weekends will be busy.

Morales/Drako: A couple of respectable people on Morales as a dog, I got him at the odds before they dropped. Didn't really see what I would have liked to keep my bet. Morales will have better hands and experience over 3 rounds. Drako is known for his boxing background, he can crack from the short amounts I have seen in contender and his debut. But he still seems green, hence why he was easily countered by Zahabi. I passed on that fight due to the lack of tape, and I still don't have enough tape after Drako got Koed early. I have seen that he throws a hard leg kick, and in 5 fights I have watched Morales refuses to check them. Maybe now that Gutierez has broken his leg with them he will, but can't really bank on it until I see it adressed. Morales can be lowv olume, even when he beat Benitez judges didn't give it to him. Drako can be improving a ton as well from fight to fight, which we never get to see. Dog or pass for me, but I needed wider odds.

Gane/Lewis: I think Gane will live up to his price tag on Sunday. In some way, this is a step down for him. I was nervous about how he would deal against another technical striker in Volkov with power and reach. I know how he handles plodding power hitters from the Jarzinho fight. Actually think Jarzinho was a harder matchup. He is way faster and more technical, more durable, and has better cardio than Lewis. Jarzinho was also holding the centre for the first 2 rounds, Lewis loves backing up which will make him a sitting duck. I had the over 1.5 in the Blaydes fight, which lost obviously. I honestly thought it was going to lose due to Blaydes backing Lewis up and KOing him against the cage the way he was teeing off in the first. Lewis has said it himself, he loves fighting wrestlers.
Lewis has been finished by over the hill Hunt in a 5 rounder who kept backing him up, as well as an ancient JDS early. Lewis can only eat so many teeps and body kicks to the body against the cage until he quits. Nobody can seem to time Gane, other than JDS once. When Lewis loads up you see it coming from 3 feet away. As he gets tired it will be even more obvious to Gane. Looking at some Gane props, the 4,5 DEC makes me a lil nervous depending on how aggressive Gane gets in third and if Lewis is up for it or in his quitter mentality. Gane KO/DEC opened up for me at -200 which I got, think sub is very very unlikely and something Gane will get on more low-level guys.

Kape/Ode: Interesting fight, these guys have a ton of similarities. Both are super athletic, fast and have a long reach. Both fight with their hands down. Ode uses more head movement, Kape eats almost everything in the pocket but seems to have a godly chin. Il try keep this one short, I think Ode has some solid value even after the odds have narrowed, especially if it stays striking. Kape has a path with his wrestling. Ode is too comfortable hunting for subs off his back, not sure if they will work on high-level competition.
Kape did shoot on Pantoja who is elite on the ground. Ode is dropping down to 125 for first time, but im not concerned as he never used to cut weight. This might be the first time Kape is at a reach disadvantage. If he keeps his hands low and starts of slow, Ode might be the first person to KO him. That straight is money, and he throws a lot of very fast headkicks. Iv seen Kape eat a few.I wish there was more footage of Ode going 3 rounds. He has a split win on regionals which I cant find. In his amateurs that got out of round 1, he didn't break a sweat. Even with all the uncertainty I have to keep at least half a unit on Ode. Kape will stay hittable and low output no mater who he fights, if he wrestles then so be it. Kape could be a good live bet too if it gets out of round 1
 
Oblivian said:
I'm starting to wonder when the wars and # of fights is going to catch up with Green. I remember watching him back in Affliction!
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“Oh shit hey Donald Trump”

I don’t necessarily think it’s the damage that’ll catch up to him as he really hasn’t taken an excessive amount despite his long career it’s more the fact he’s at the age where his reflexes and fast twitch muscles he’s so reliant on start to decline. As a Bobby Green fan I hate this fight for him and it really doesn’t make a lot of sense from a matchmaking perspective.
 
BigSteve said:
taped some more fights, day off, and weekends will be busy.

Morales/Drako: A couple of respectable people on Morales as a dog, I got him at the odds before they dropped. Didn't really see what I would have liked to keep my bet. Morales will have better hands and experience over 3 rounds. Drako is known for his boxing background, he can crack from the short amounts I have seen in contender and his debut. But he still seems green, hence why he was easily countered by Zahabi. I passed on that fight due to the lack of tape, and I still don't have enough tape after Drako got Koed early. I have seen that he throws a hard leg kick, and in 5 fights I have watched Morales refuses to check them. Maybe now that Gutierez has broken his leg with them he will, but can't really bank on it until I see it adressed. Morales can be lowv olume, even when he beat Benitez judges didn't give it to him. Drako can be improving a ton as well from fight to fight, which we never get to see. Dog or pass for me, but I needed wider odds.

Gane/Lewis: I think Gane will live up to his price tag on Sunday. In some way, this is a step down for him. I was nervous about how he would deal against another technical striker in Volkov with power and reach. I know how he handles plodding power hitters from the Jarzinho fight. Actually think Jarzinho was a harder matchup. He is way faster and more technical, more durable, and has better cardio than Lewis. Jarzinho was also holding the centre for the first 2 rounds, Lewis loves backing up which will make him a sitting duck. I had the over 1.5 in the Blaydes fight, which lost obviously. I honestly thought it was going to lose due to Blaydes backing Lewis up and KOing him against the cage the way he was teeing off in the first. Lewis has said it himself, he loves fighting wrestlers.
Lewis has been finished by over the hill Hunt in a 5 rounder who kept backing him up, as well as an ancient JDS early. Lewis can only eat so many teeps and body kicks to the body against the cage until he quits. Nobody can seem to time Gane, other than JDS once. When Lewis loads up you see it coming from 3 feet away. As he gets tired it will be even more obvious to Gane. Looking at some Gane props, the 4,5 DEC makes me a lil nervous depending on how aggressive Gane gets in third and if Lewis is up for it or in his quitter mentality. Gane KO/DEC opened up for me at -200 which I got, think sub is very very unlikely and something Gane will get on more low-level guys.

Kape/Ode: Interesting fight, these guys have a ton of similarities. Both are super athletic, fast and have a long reach. Both fight with their hands down. Ode uses more head movement, Kape eats almost everything in the pocket but seems to have a godly chin. Il try keep this one short, I think Ode has some solid value even after the odds have narrowed, especially if it stays striking. Kape has a path with his wrestling. Ode is too comfortable hunting for subs off his back, not sure if they will work on high-level competition.
Kape did shoot on Pantoja who is elite on the ground. Ode is dropping down to 125 for first time, but im not concerned as he never used to cut weight. This might be the first time Kape is at a reach disadvantage. If he keeps his hands low and starts of slow, Ode might be the first person to KO him. That straight is money, and he throws a lot of very fast headkicks. Iv seen Kape eat a few.I wish there was more footage of Ode going 3 rounds. He has a split win on regionals which I cant find. In his amateurs that got out of round 1, he didn't break a sweat. Even with all the uncertainty I have to keep at least half a unit on Ode. Kape will stay hittable and low output no mater who he fights, if he wrestles then so be it. Kape could be a good live bet too if it gets out of round 1
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I have to agree with you on the Ode fight. Originally I felt like Kape was a lock, but after looking some more, it's kind of hard to say that. I asked earlier in the thread if anyone had any idea why Ode was favored over Kelleher - which to me says maybe he was perceived to be better than what we give him credit for. Problem I'm having is not being able to find most of his fights before contender series. The fight is now a dog or pass type situation for me but I think Ode's got a shot here.
 
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