UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane - Discussion Thread

DeceptaKhan said:
Kape SHOULD win...But he SHOULD have won his last 2 fights as well, hes just not a guy that will fight for your money, its frustrating to watch
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Kape should have won against Pantoja? Disagree there. Pantoja is a tough fight for him and many favored Pantoja. In a rematch, definitely still favor Pantoja and by a wider margin.
 
mkess101 said:
I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't think I'm underestimating him. Luque is damn good. To me it's just a stylistically really tough fight for him. Bigger, stronger guy who only wants to grapple and who is a beast with top position.

Believe me I'm not gonna be shocked if Luque catches Mike and puts him away. If the line opened Chiesa -130 and Luque +110 no way would I have been jumping to get a big play on it. That's pretty close to where I cap it, maybe Chiesa -150ish. I just loved Chiesa +130.
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Can't help but think Chiesa tries to get up close and personal and gets snatched up into a sub or TKO'd. Chiesa has looked like a world beater no doubt and he's huge for the division but I just think Luque is really something special and is getting better and better. He's hittable but Chiesa won't exploit be able to exploit that. I only see one PTV for Chiesa which would be holding him up against the cage/clinching/wrestlefucking but I just think that, over the course of 3 rounds, Luque will catch him or snatch him
 
Degenerate bet here (underdog wmma prop)

But Angela Hill is only a +115 underdog, fight to go the distance is -350, and her by decision is +225

Good value for a light play imo just from implied odds alone

46% chance to win the fight, 78% chance fight to go the distance, but will payout like an only a 30% chance of happening of those two together?
 
Question here, prop bet of "Moneyline- Finish Only" Lewis is +240 and Gane -350

That means bet is a push if it goes to decision?

Would be a good way to bet Lewis if I'm understanding that right. +240 odds, get your money back if Gane wins by decision. Only have to worry about a Gane finish.

Hopefully someone can correct or confirm if I'm right or wrong
 
HockeyBjj said:
Degenerate bet here (underdog wmma prop)

But Angela Hill is only a +115 underdog, fight to go the distance is -350, and her by decision is +225

Good value for a light play imo just from implied odds alone

46% chance to win the fight, 78% chance fight to go the distance, but will payout like an only a 30% chance of happening of those two together?
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What idiotic book still has it at +225?
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
What idiotic book still has it at +225?
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Is it less now?

Rivers Casino. I got +225 last night, just checked now and it's still +225

They're typically within 10 maybe 15 points of everything else I see. Definitely not a rogue book.

Draftkings I see +175, Fanduel has +195. Points Bet +195

So DK a bit low and Rivers bit high if the usual is just shy of +200
 
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HockeyBjj said:
Is it less now?

Rivers Casino. I got +225 last night, just checked now and it's still +225

They're typically within 10 maybe 15 points of everything else I see. Definitely not a rogue book.
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The line is +135 everywhere else

consider it a gift
 
TrueAscension said:
Can't help but think Chiesa tries to get up close and personal and gets snatched up into a sub or TKO'd. Chiesa has looked like a world beater no doubt and he's huge for the division but I just think Luque is really something special and is getting better and better. He's hittable but Chiesa won't exploit be able to exploit that. I only see one PTV for Chiesa which would be holding him up against the cage/clinching/wrestlefucking but I just think that, over the course of 3 rounds, Luque will catch him or snatch him
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Definitely possible. Luque reminds me a lot of RDA though in a lot of ways. Well rounded but not necessarily special anywhere. Not a tiny WW but sort of a tweener (would be great for a 165lb division). He's probably more aggressive than RDA and willing to get into a firefight, which could be good or bad for him vs Chiesa.

I agree there's really just the one PTV for Mike. I just think that PTV happens to be the most likely outcome.
 
HockeyBjj said:
Look at my previous post. Even the "low" book I use is up to +175, so I definitely didn't think it was out of line
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It’s way out of line imo

but then again cheisa dec is still at +235 and I think that’s way off as well

Yea I do see it now at +175-185 at most books
 
HockeyBjj said:
Question here, prop bet of "Moneyline- Finish Only" Lewis is +240 and Gane -350

That means bet is a push if it goes to decision?

Would be a good way to bet Lewis if I'm understanding that right. +240 odds, get your money back if Gane wins by decision. Only have to worry about a Gane finish.

Hopefully someone can correct or confirm if I'm right or wrong
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Yeah that sounds right. The "Scorecards no action" bets that 5d used to have.
 
@ HockeyBjj

I see Gane winning by late TKO. He has much better cardio than Lewis, which has a tank for two- absolute max three rounds. After that he will whilt and i think Gane can get a finish via strikes. Gane is very fast and has to avoid Lewis insane power, which I think he can.
 
If Gane wins, do u see him as someone who could beat Ngannou?
If Ngannou goes to the third round, it will be very interesting.
 
Pretty big on Munhoz/Chiesa/Gane ITD/Gane sub(just a sprinkle because +1500 is off).
 
Initially said:
Pretty big on Munhoz/Chiesa/Gane ITD/Gane sub(just a sprinkle because +1500 is off).
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Gane sub +1500 is bonkers, great find.

Just based on the fact Lewis will give up a choke if he's exhausted if nothing else. And it's not like Gane hasn't secured subs previously.
 
mkess101 said:
There is just no way to pass up Chiesa +130. He's straight ragdolled 4 guys in a row at 170, including a better grappler than Luque in RDA.

Chiesa isn't well rounded but he's a beast since he stopped trying to cut an absurd amount of weight, he's looked MASSIVE compared every WW he's faced (again, the fact he ever made 155 is utterly mind boggling).

I actually favor him here to do the same thing he's done to his last 4 opponents. Luque is obviously a very good fighter, well rounded and dangerous. But Chiesa isn't stupid enough to stand with Vincente. Mike knows what he is and won't veer from his gameplan.
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Totally agree with your breakdown. I don't understand why people stand and bang with VL. The dude is good on his feet and has a big right hand.

I think Chiesa is smart enough not to try and strike and will get a hold of him early. Once Chiesa gets on top its more or less a wrap (round by round anyway).
 
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