UFC 266 - Volkanovski vs Ortega - Offical discussion

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A couple of weeks away, but with there being a week off this week I expect some of us are getting ahead on tape. Share your thoughts...

Kind of a strange card, three five round fights, a few fighters that are only here because they are part of the Nick Diaz team and I'm assuming it was part of Nick's agreement to fight.

Love the main event but very hard to tape, it's like two different versions of Ortega and we've only seen version 2 fight once
 
Manon/Silva

Manon - Her game is mostly built around the straight left, long south paw striker, plays a pressure counter game. Great reflex, great instincts, good fight IQ, power from both sides of her body, sharp jab, powerful one too, nasty straight left and a decent check right hook. She is also very good at jabbing and moving, she will slip off to either side in combination with the jab, so she lands the jab clean but she's gone before she can be hit with a counter. The side kick to the body and leg looks goofy at times but definitely effective at blocking an incoming opponent. Mix's up her strike selection well making it hard for girls to know what's coming next, combined with effective feints she gets girls biting and lures them into counters. Physically strong, doesn't have a natural wrestling game but isn't afraid to try, strong in the clinch, generally wins the clinch battle off of physicallity and will use knees to body here and break with elbows. Can win wrestling and scrambling exchanges just on strength at time but this is definitely an area of her game that is a work in progress. Her early fights showed her laying in guard and not knowing how to progress the position or do effective damage, now she can progress, work from half guard, move to mount and is very dangerous from the top now. Strong hips, heavy on top and hard to buck off, she will unload from the top with big elbows and punches. Good finishing instincts over all, but doesn't over reach, knows when to back off and when to pour it on. Can be caught with counter straights her self at times, questions about how she reacts to someone matching her power and speed, and someone with a more technical wrestling and grappling game may cause her problems. Hasen't faced any real high level competition or real athletes, but definitely has the tools to be effective in a step up. Will throw spinning kicks on occasion that never land, very annoying to see.

Silva- Very aggressive forward moving pressure striking game, power in all of her strikes, good front kick to the body up the middle, great calf kick that really looks to chop in. She loves the thai plum and working knees to the body and head but goes to this too often and it doesn't always benefit her. She seems to be so happy to get it and do some work with her knees that she doesn't notice she's being pushed to the cage where she can get held for long stretches. She works with short elbows when she has her back to the back but isn't great at getting out of the position. Walks into exchanges with her hands low and her striking defence is to just throw back, eats a lot of straight punches and jabs and doesn't have any head movement or foot work to mitigate this, ends up taking a lot of damage. Has a good front choke game, darcè, ninja chokes, anaconda, will also go to these when girls either clinch up or try to drop to her hips. Defiantly struggles to get up if she is taken down and will spend long stretches on her back with a closed guard, does have a nice arm bar and it's probably safer to be in half guard if you're on top, staying in the guard is playing with fire. Uses elbows from bottom and uses some up kicks which are decent. Slows down and becomes more hittable but does definitely wear on girls as the fight goes on, goes zombie mode and just keeps pushing forward. Plodding but vicious, everything she lands looks like it hurts.

I think Silva will eat too many straight punches and will struggle to close Manon down or cut her off. Manon should look to minimise kicks and just stick with the straight punching, jab and circle off, one two and circle off, lateral movement and darting punches should be too much for Silva. I think Silva is the most complete, dangerous and physical fighter Manon has faced, and this is a great next step for her in what should be a war in the later rounds.

I think Silva is tough enough to survive the 3 rounds, a finish late for Manon isn't out of the question but it would likely be an accumulation of damage.

Favorite bet - Manon decision or round 3 decision.
 
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A couple of weeks away, but with there being a week off this week I expect some of us are getting ahead on tape. Share your thoughts...

Kind of a strange card, three five round fights, a few fighters that are only here because they are part of the Nick Diaz team and I'm assuming it was part of Nick's agreement to fight.

Love the main event but very hard to tape, it's like two different versions of Ortega and we've only seen version 2 fight once

Ortega v2 looked SOOOOO good. It's a classic case of a guy who had all the necessary physical tools finally realizing he needed to put in the work to become a legit striker.

I have some on Ortega already at +144. My main concern is how he handles Volk's leg kicks.
 
Ortega v2 looked SOOOOO good. It's a classic case of a guy who had all the necessary physical tools finally realizing he needed to put in the work to become a legit striker.

I have some on Ortega already at +144. My main concern is how he handles Volk's leg kicks.

That was kind of my read, how does he deal with the low kicks but also the feints and movement of Volk. He puts so much out there that he gets very good kick boxers second guessing themselves, Aldo was sort of bamboozled and Holloway in the first fight just couldn't find a rhythm.

I like that Ortega has the BJJ as a back up, he should be able to kick without concern because it's unlikely anything he throws gets caught and converted into a takedown, I just don't think Volk will want to play around in the wrestling or grappling at all.

Volk also did get rocked once or twice by Holloway in the second fight, if Ortega does try to kick a lot, goes low to the legs, to the body and sets up a head kick he maybe gets him there.

It's just Volk's game is so subtle it's hard to put into words exactly what he's doing but it's very effective
 
That was kind of my read, how does he deal with the low kicks but also the feints and movement of Volk. He puts so much out there that he gets very good kick boxers second guessing themselves, Aldo was sort of bamboozled and Holloway in the first fight just couldn't find a rhythm.

I like that Ortega has the BJJ as a back up, he should be able to kick without concern because it's unlikely anything he throws gets caught and converted into a takedown, I just don't think Volk will want to play around in the wrestling or grappling at all.

Volk also did get rocked once or twice by Holloway in the second fight, if Ortega does try to kick a lot, goes low to the legs, to the body and sets up a head kick he maybe gets him there.

It's just Volk's game is so subtle it's hard to put into words exactly what he's doing but it's very effective

Ortega's BJJ isn't a backup, its his most dangerous weapon. Volk's not exactly subtle if you ask me. He does leg kick, leg kick, leg kick, and then tries to push someone up to the cage with his absurd rugby strength. I don't find him to be a very well rounded fighter at all actually and I think he gets pieced.
 
Nasrat/Hooker - Nasrat South paw ones and twos boxer is how I would describe Nasrat in a nutshell. Snappy accurate jab is the back bone of his game and he builds around it, lots of jab left straight, double jab left straight. Generally starts every exchange with a straight punch but the next punch in the combination will be a sort of tight cross, it's almost straight and he just turns his hand over slightly and seems to get more power on the punch. 90% of his striking is to the head, occasionally jabs to the body or throws a hook but rarely. Mixes in some low kicks, body kicks and high kicks which he will use more against orthodox fighters, but again, not very consistently. Doesn't clinch and doesn't wrestle. A lot of lateral movement and in and out bounce early, feints his way in keeping a high guard and starts working the jab. Will jab and circle, bounce in with a left hand and back out, persistent, accurate and focused, once he's established his range and rhytym he will will pressure, staying in boxing range and force a close range slip and counter boxing match. Fast hands and good reflexes but with limited weapons - But the weapons he has are fined tuned. Keeps a consistent pace and doesn't seem to slow down but he's not really in hard working grueling fights, he's generally getting the fight he wants at his tempo. Very quick and ready for take down attempts, quick to get under hooks or sprawl and shake opponents off, as soon as he breaks he goes back to his game, doesn't let up. Not a fan personally of his style, I find him boring, and his level of competition has been very low by comparison to Hooker.

Hooker - Keeps a mid distance which makes him hard to read, he can be half a foot or so out of usual boxing range but use his length and reach to make up that distance so he catches people on the end of his jab when they think they are safe. Lots of jabS, double jabs, double jab right hand, very good inside low kick against South paws which disrupts rhythm, knocks people off balance and over the course of the fight takes the calf away. Good front kick/push kick to the body, knees up the middle to the head and body, everything is sort of sharp and cutting because he's so bony. He moves slowly, punches slowly, has no explosion at all, not athletically blessed I any way. Walks forward and keeps the pressure on, almost relentless with it but takes a lot of damage as a result. He eats a lot of shots coming into range, in exchanges, and when he breaks from exchanges it's hands down chin up head high. Will clinch against the cage, will look for takedowns (especially when he gets tired), feints with the hips and knees and shoulders constantly which along with his range and length and strange mid-distance makes it difficult to get in on him, especially early. Starts fast in the sense he doesn't need a long time to make some reads and start landing some offence, seems to want to get a head start on his opponents. Wears damage badly and does slow down into the third round. Lands surprisingly well on the inside with uppercut and tight hooks. More show worn, has been up and down about continuing to fight and probably knows his title shot dreams are over.

Potentially a close match up, depending on how Nasrat deals with the low kicks and the reach disadvatge. If he's light enough on his feet and in and out enough to avoid alot of the low kicks, and if he can slip in and out on the longer jabber he may be able to jab and move and against the slower man. Hooker has more options over all, but it depends how effectively he implements them, it's not like his takedowns are pretty or subtle.

Nasrat at +150 or better is the side for me.
 
That was kind of my read, how does he deal with the low kicks but also the feints and movement of Volk. He puts so much out there that he gets very good kick boxers second guessing themselves, Aldo was sort of bamboozled and Holloway in the first fight just couldn't find a rhythm.

I like that Ortega has the BJJ as a back up, he should be able to kick without concern because it's unlikely anything he throws gets caught and converted into a takedown, I just don't think Volk will want to play around in the wrestling or grappling at all.

Volk also did get rocked once or twice by Holloway in the second fight, if Ortega does try to kick a lot, goes low to the legs, to the body and sets up a head kick he maybe gets him there.

It's just Volk's game is so subtle it's hard to put into words exactly what he's doing but it's very effective

Agree, but I will say that Max figured it out MUCH better in the rematch. He arguably won that fight. Now, some of that could be that he already had 25 minutes in there with Volk so he was able to sort of solve that puzzle over time. But I have to think that Ortega's camp is going to watch BOTH fights over and over and really hone in on what Max did differently the second time.

I kind of view this fight as a bit of a toss up, I'd understand someone very slightly favoring Volk. But at +144 I think there was good value with Ortega given the massive improvements we saw in his striking last time out. And yeah, I agree that Volk likely won't want to mess with Ortega's grappling.
 
I worry about hooker taking nas down

he’s been smart using it at the end of close rounds to swing the judges
 
I worry about hooker taking nas down

he’s been smart using it at the end of close rounds to swing the judges

Has anyone taken more abuse over a 3 year span than Hooker has since December of '18? And that's even taking into account that 2 of his 6 fights he didn't take much damage (the KO win over Vick and the decision over Iaquinta). But in Dec '18 he was brutalized about as badly as someone can be by Barboza. Then the 2 wins where he took little damage. But then...a war with Felder where he absorbed a ton of damage and was lucky to get the hometown decision. Then an all out war with Poirier. Then a brutal KO by Chandler.

I kinda feel like he's aged about a decade in the last 2-3 years based on his fights. Hard to say but damn has the guy absorbed some punishment.
 
Has anyone taken more abuse over a 3 year span than Hooker has since December of '18? And that's even taking into account that 2 of his 6 fights he didn't take much damage (the KO win over Vick and the decision over Iaquinta). But in Dec '18 he was brutalized about as badly as someone can be by Barboza. Then the 2 wins where he took little damage. But then...a war with Felder where he absorbed a ton of damage and was lucky to get the hometown decision. Then an all out war with Poirier. Then a brutal KO by Chandler.

I kinda feel like he's aged about a decade in the last 2-3 years based on his fights. Hard to say but damn has the guy absorbed some punishment.
Absolutely. He’s wrestling cause he’s getting beat up and wearing down earlier and earlier in fights

but it has been effective for him to win rounds and hang on
 
Has anyone taken more abuse over a 3 year span than Hooker has since December of '18? And that's even taking into account that 2 of his 6 fights he didn't take much damage (the KO win over Vick and the decision over Iaquinta). But in Dec '18 he was brutalized about as badly as someone can be by Barboza. Then the 2 wins where he took little damage. But then...a war with Felder where he absorbed a ton of damage and was lucky to get the hometown decision. Then an all out war with Poirier. Then a brutal KO by Chandler.

I kinda feel like he's aged about a decade in the last 2-3 years based on his fights. Hard to say but damn has the guy absorbed some punishment.

Ya Hooker's taken some punishment for sure but not sure who Nasrat has beaten that gives any confidence in him being able to outstrike Hooker. A couple levels up imo.
 
What do you like about Medic so much for a max bet mate?

Great lateral movement, excellent strike diversity, gets in and out and throws with precision and power. I also don't think Turner is a very smart fighter.
 
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What do you like about Medic so much for a max bet mate?
Havent taped yet, but I know Medic very well being my countryman. You can break it down to basics. It will most likely be a striking match, Turner is chinny, Medic doesn't seem to be, or at least doesn't get hit that much cleanly.
 
Ya Hooker's taken some punishment for sure but not sure who Nasrat has beaten that gives any confidence in him being able to outstrike Hooker. A couple levels up imo.

Could be yeah. I favor Hooker a bit but the line does too so seems about right I guess?
 
Havent taped yet, but I know Medic very well being my countryman. You can break it down to basics. It will most likely be a striking match, Turner is chinny, Medic doesn't seem to be, or at least doesn't get hit that much cleanly.

Medic is melting Turner in the first round. Book it
 
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