- Joined
- Mar 7, 2006
- Messages
- 43,747
- Reaction score
- 2,841
I used to say that Ortega's striking is just as dangerous as his BJJ, but honestly, I think he's more of a threat standing nowadays. I think his striking is underrated and BJJ is overrated.
UFC 266 - Volkanovski vs Ortega - Offical discussion
- Thread starter 2020Tracked
- Start date
I used to say that Ortega's striking is just as dangerous as his BJJ, but honestly, I think he's more of a threat standing nowadays. I think his striking is underrated and BJJ is overrated.
- Joined
- Jun 15, 2018
- Messages
- 3,304
- Reaction score
- 2,430
Strong to quite strong but it won't matter. He's gonna crack Turner
- Joined
- Jun 15, 2018
- Messages
- 3,304
- Reaction score
- 2,430
The thing about Ortega's BJJ is that his lock is so fucking strong. He's a first degree Gracie blackbelt so if Volk tries to hold him against the cage and makes one mistake, that neck is getting snatched and its sleepy time. I agree he's a threat on the feet and could piece Volk up.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2006
- Messages
- 43,747
- Reaction score
- 2,841
I'm on Ortega too here. I think he's going to have a big moment in the fight probably landing a knee or elbow. Volk is a bit too basic for him I think.
- Joined
- Jun 15, 2018
- Messages
- 3,304
- Reaction score
- 2,430
Volk is really, really fucking strong/durable so I can see an Ortega decision not unlike the Zombie fight. The issue with Max is he came out and put on a show against Volk and then just stopped doing what was winning him the fight in the 3-5th rounds. I don't see Ortega letting Volk off the leash like that and I also don't see Ortega losing the belt for quite some time
- Joined
- May 22, 2018
- Messages
- 81
- Reaction score
- 89
My reaction during Ortega's last fight was hooolllyyy fucking shit this guy has finally figured it out. Crisp boxing. Purposeful in everything he did. Gave KZ different looks and varied attacks constantly. So fluid. We know he has cardio, durability and great jiu jitsu. I've had him circled as a value underdog since the Volk fight was announced.
I think highly of Volk. I bet him both times against Holloway, against Aldo, Mendes etc. My one concern, as has been pointed out earlier, is the leg kicks. My 1 question with Ortega is how he'll deal with that. To date, his style has been to take punishment to give punishment. And while he can eat a punch with the best of them, leg kicks will de-rail you no matter who you are. So I'd hate to bet him just to see him keep walking forward and getting his legs chopped off in round 1.
With all that said, I would tip the scales in Ortega's favour for durability, cardio, boxing (if his last fight is any indication of where his skills are at now) and he should also have a reach advantage. I don't think Volk will want to wrestle with Ortega. Ortega has a lot of paths to victory, more so I think than Volk, and for that reason I will be hammering Ortega's money line. I also think we have to factor in that Volk had COVID before. Some people bounce back no problem; some people have lingering issues with fatigue, etc. He's had a lot of time to come back from it, but you never know. Like if you have 100% confidence in Volk pre-COVID, IMO you'd have to make it 95% post-COVID just for any recovery variables that are hard to pinpoint.
Other leans:
- Medic looked really slick last fight. I would lean toward him at current odds.
- I will bet Nick Diaz to outbox and outlast a shot Robbie Lawler. This is for shits and giggles if nothing else.
- Can Moraes catch Merab with something? Moraes quickly went from contender to after-thought. I think the fight is closer than the odds suggest. Moraes is very dangerous, especially early in the fight. I will have to give this closer consideration. Maybe play the TKO/Sub line because I don't think Moraes wins a decision.
- I am looking to fade Dan Hooker going forward. He's too up-and-down and has taken a ton of damage. I don't know if this is the spot to do it, but it's on my radar.
Fun card, looking forward to it.
I think highly of Volk. I bet him both times against Holloway, against Aldo, Mendes etc. My one concern, as has been pointed out earlier, is the leg kicks. My 1 question with Ortega is how he'll deal with that. To date, his style has been to take punishment to give punishment. And while he can eat a punch with the best of them, leg kicks will de-rail you no matter who you are. So I'd hate to bet him just to see him keep walking forward and getting his legs chopped off in round 1.
With all that said, I would tip the scales in Ortega's favour for durability, cardio, boxing (if his last fight is any indication of where his skills are at now) and he should also have a reach advantage. I don't think Volk will want to wrestle with Ortega. Ortega has a lot of paths to victory, more so I think than Volk, and for that reason I will be hammering Ortega's money line. I also think we have to factor in that Volk had COVID before. Some people bounce back no problem; some people have lingering issues with fatigue, etc. He's had a lot of time to come back from it, but you never know. Like if you have 100% confidence in Volk pre-COVID, IMO you'd have to make it 95% post-COVID just for any recovery variables that are hard to pinpoint.
Other leans:
- Medic looked really slick last fight. I would lean toward him at current odds.
- I will bet Nick Diaz to outbox and outlast a shot Robbie Lawler. This is for shits and giggles if nothing else.
- Can Moraes catch Merab with something? Moraes quickly went from contender to after-thought. I think the fight is closer than the odds suggest. Moraes is very dangerous, especially early in the fight. I will have to give this closer consideration. Maybe play the TKO/Sub line because I don't think Moraes wins a decision.
- I am looking to fade Dan Hooker going forward. He's too up-and-down and has taken a ton of damage. I don't know if this is the spot to do it, but it's on my radar.
Fun card, looking forward to it.
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2019
- Messages
- 1,549
- Reaction score
- 1,662
Was it Cub Swanson who said he thought he was gonna die because of how strong his guillotine was?
- Joined
- Dec 22, 2015
- Messages
- 2,545
- Reaction score
- 1,654
I think the fight is off based on this. Could be misinterpreting it.
Medic's wrestling looked non-existent in his Alaska FC fights, but not sure it matters here.
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2007
- Messages
- 51,187
- Reaction score
- 21,198
Ortega's bjj is similar to Oliveira's in that both are incredibly dangerous sub guys against non-elite bjj players. A lot of it is simply due to how aggressively they will pursue a finish via sub. Sometimes it's not really about overrated/underrated, but about how certain grappling styles translate to specific matchups. That's not to say they aren't really good bjj players, they are. But they aren't Maia or Jacare in their prime level good. Not really even close.
For example, I think someone like Oliveira or Ortega are always going to be more likely to finish a fight that ends up on the mat than a guy like Dariush is. Not because they're better grapplers (or even better at applying subs) than Beneil, but because their style is to just go for it all out. Whereas Beneil isn't gonna risk giving up a dominant position to go for a choke unless he's damn sure he's gonna get it (and obviously he has plenty of sub wins too). I don't think Charles or T City are better grapplers than Beneil, but in most matchups I'd for sure say they're more likely to win by sub than him because they're just more willing to go for them.
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2020
- Messages
- 1,319
- Reaction score
- 1,114
Nasrat's mother has died this week, but he says he still intends to fight.
I bet Nasrat before I heard and now I'm unsure, hard to say how it will effect him.
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2020
- Messages
- 6,233
- Reaction score
- 4,471
I like this card for betting
I will max bet nick diaz. The ghost of Diaz beats 2021 robbie easily. That guy is completely shot
I will max bet nick diaz. The ghost of Diaz beats 2021 robbie easily. That guy is completely shot
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2020
- Messages
- 1,319
- Reaction score
- 1,114
Turner/Medic - Turner great left straight, accurate punching in general, doesn't have a lot of big swinging power but catches guys with precise shots and good counters that seem to take them off their feet. Good front kick up the middle and good step in knees, when he actually uses them, which I feel isn't enough. Good left hook to the body, again when he goes to it, and a nice right hook left straight combination seems to be his go to. For a guy so long and tall he really under uses his range tools, the front kick is here and there, the jab is there but his game isn't really built around it. Instead he choose to play a tight inside boxing game, wants to back his opponents up to the cage and keep boxing pressure on them. Fairly slow moving, fairly slow hands, and seems to be somewhat weak physically. Takedown defence is over all weak, if you want him down and commit to it you will get him to the mat, has some reversals and will try and throw up triangles but he's again weak here. Definitely developing and building and looking to use his jab and long game more but it's a work in progress and I don't think he packs enough fire power to scare off bigger stronger guys. Striking defence is bad, guys can get inside his range pretty easily plus he holds his hands low and he's slow to return them to his chin after he throws a combination. A lot of single punches, ones and twos, just chips away with pressure. Lead leg heavy and I'm surprised it hasn't been attack and damaged more. Possible chin issues.
Medic - Not a lot to go on here, very aggressive quick starter. Should be the over all faster man, quicker hands, quicker kicks, generally moves faster. Pressure on out the gate, lots of body kicks, knees, left hands, just let's loose and chases the quick finish, once he has someone hurt he doesn't let up. Has a decent chance of unloading for a finish that doesn't come and gassing himself out I believe. Poor take down defence, and can be controlled on the mat for stretches. Does have some sort of a ground game, will throw up triangles, will eventually work his way to his feel but has faced some of the lowest level competition possible.
Probably side with Turner as a dog, good chance he just gets over whelmed by Medic out the gate and finished but Turner has the better experience, more cage time and possible just needs to weather weather early storm and find a groove.
Over 1.5 at a good price would be a play, possible Turner late rounds plays, Turner money line potentially.
Medic - Not a lot to go on here, very aggressive quick starter. Should be the over all faster man, quicker hands, quicker kicks, generally moves faster. Pressure on out the gate, lots of body kicks, knees, left hands, just let's loose and chases the quick finish, once he has someone hurt he doesn't let up. Has a decent chance of unloading for a finish that doesn't come and gassing himself out I believe. Poor take down defence, and can be controlled on the mat for stretches. Does have some sort of a ground game, will throw up triangles, will eventually work his way to his feel but has faced some of the lowest level competition possible.
Probably side with Turner as a dog, good chance he just gets over whelmed by Medic out the gate and finished but Turner has the better experience, more cage time and possible just needs to weather weather early storm and find a groove.
Over 1.5 at a good price would be a play, possible Turner late rounds plays, Turner money line potentially.
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2020
- Messages
- 1,076
- Reaction score
- 945
I'm on Medic as I think the speed, accuracy and agressivnes in the striking will be enough,but that's a good analyses and definitely makes me cautious and glad I didn't put to much on that.Feel like Morales against Pierce is a better pick.Morales is tough,solid in the clinch and I think the jab will be there for him in that fight.
- Joined
- Feb 2, 2013
- Messages
- 39,643
- Reaction score
- 22,551
Ortega looked outstanding vs KZ. Like a different fighter. Maybe KZ underperformed (I know he is Sherdogs darling but I don't think he is as good as people want him to be).
My first thought when this fight got announced was a strong lean towards Ortega but I can't get myself to bet on him because I hate his guts.
- Joined
- Feb 2, 2013
- Messages
- 39,643
- Reaction score
- 22,551
I'm on Moraes at close to +200. I think this is a big step up for Merab.
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2020
- Messages
- 1,319
- Reaction score
- 1,114
Pearce/Morales - Pearce weaponised cardio, pace, volume and pressure, just does not let up with a volume of strikes, into clinches, into cage control into takedowns. Fights like an avalanche, starts slows and builds and builds as he picks up speed and momentum until he's crashing over you and you're overwhelmed. Very bad defensively, open to counters in almost any exchange, open to being hit just generally and wears damage to his face pretty badly, gets cut and his eyes swell badly pretty quickly. Not technically sound but does look to be improving, there is too much flailing, too much spinning and too much slappy punching. Doesn't really have any snap or pop on anything he throws, just lacks speed and power, also seems to lack a little physicallity generally but that could be improved on with strength and conditioning. Likes step in knees, lead hand uppercuts, and will wing one twos, throws spinning back kicks at times that are so slow and predictable they couldn't be anything other than a waste of energy. Seems to have rough round ones and probably knows this will be the case, just guts it out and looks to keep the pace high. Drowning smothering top game, constantly transitioning as his opponents try and create space and pours on the ground and pound and sub attempts. Pulls people into his game and takes them to deeper waters than they can swim in.
Morales - Technically sound kickboxing, good timing, good reflexes and reactions, has some power in his punches and kicks and definitely has some speed in them. Feints and makes reads early, if his opponent gives him opportunity he will spends the majority of the first round just working his way in testing and probing, making reads and finding his distance and timing. Not a huge volume striker, good on the back foot and counters well, lands a clean sharp jab, kicks to the legs body and head. Looks to have good wrestling defence, fast to pull his hips back, quick to get underhooks and break. Can be clinched and worked against the fence, not bad here but not his strong suit, a more determined cage wrestler could find success here. Likes a cleaner more measured strike for strike fight, keeps his game simple but efficient, not a lot of variety in what he throws but times everything well, sharpened his few tools. Physically built, seems to hold his cardio well but this likely slips in a more grueling grinding fight than we've seen him in so far.
Morales has the technical edge, the speed edge and the power edge, and if Pearce allows him to find his groove he likely pieces him up for 3 rounds. Pearce has the pace, volume, grind and cardio edge, if Morales can't keep up he will get swamped. Morales needs to sting Pearce hard and early and often to keep him at bay and discourage him from coming and coming. Pearce loses round one probably 90% of the time here unless he gets a takedown early and can control Morales there for a long stretch.
Gun to head money line play would be Morales, current odds seem accurate though. Don't mind a stab on Pearce round 3/decision, I feel if he wins the fight it's because he builds momentum in round 2 and by round 3 he's drowning Morlaes. Over 2.5 and GTD likely hits.
Morales - Technically sound kickboxing, good timing, good reflexes and reactions, has some power in his punches and kicks and definitely has some speed in them. Feints and makes reads early, if his opponent gives him opportunity he will spends the majority of the first round just working his way in testing and probing, making reads and finding his distance and timing. Not a huge volume striker, good on the back foot and counters well, lands a clean sharp jab, kicks to the legs body and head. Looks to have good wrestling defence, fast to pull his hips back, quick to get underhooks and break. Can be clinched and worked against the fence, not bad here but not his strong suit, a more determined cage wrestler could find success here. Likes a cleaner more measured strike for strike fight, keeps his game simple but efficient, not a lot of variety in what he throws but times everything well, sharpened his few tools. Physically built, seems to hold his cardio well but this likely slips in a more grueling grinding fight than we've seen him in so far.
Morales has the technical edge, the speed edge and the power edge, and if Pearce allows him to find his groove he likely pieces him up for 3 rounds. Pearce has the pace, volume, grind and cardio edge, if Morales can't keep up he will get swamped. Morales needs to sting Pearce hard and early and often to keep him at bay and discourage him from coming and coming. Pearce loses round one probably 90% of the time here unless he gets a takedown early and can control Morales there for a long stretch.
Gun to head money line play would be Morales, current odds seem accurate though. Don't mind a stab on Pearce round 3/decision, I feel if he wins the fight it's because he builds momentum in round 2 and by round 3 he's drowning Morlaes. Over 2.5 and GTD likely hits.
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2007
- Messages
- 51,187
- Reaction score
- 21,198
If Marlon wins it's gonna be itd. I can't imagine him having the gas tank to hold up and win a decision. Are his itd odds enough better than his ML to justify playing him that way instead?
D
Deleted member 510399
Guest
You think so?
Nick is my favorite fighter of all time. His first fight with Robbie was on the first UFC card I watched.
I used to chat with him on YouTube, and I grew up watching his ups and downs.
But he's been out of the game for too long. I've been rewatching his catalogue of fights, and the main thing that stuck out to me is I forgot how hittable he is.
I have him on snapchat, and from 2016-2020 he was partying almost every single night. Nightclubs in Vegas were paying him to make appearances, and literally 4 nights a week he'd be out getting drunk as fuck.
It was sad to see. During his initial UFC run, his strikeforce run, and his subsequent UFC run, he never drank at all.
He's always had anxiety in front of cameras, and was never a great talker, but his most recent interview with Ariel was actually sad to watch.
His whole demeanor, body language, and articulation was far worse than we've ever seen it.
Lawler has been active, and he has indeed looked like a shell of himself, but that's against very good competition. His last few losses are to Magny, Colby, and RDA I believe.
If Nick was still doing triathalons, and actively in the gym, I'd probably back him here. But during the aforementioned partying, he'd be out until the sun came up every night. I really doubt he'd wake up and go hard in the gym. Maybe runs and bike rides here and there.
But I digress. As I mentioned earlier, he's always been super hittable, and that's only going to get worse with his layoff and age.
I see Robbie landing a hard shot on him early, dropping him, and swarming him with punches and the fight being stopped via tko. Nick will then complain about an early stoppage.
I think this is purely one last cash grab for Nick, and it's going to be sad to see him go out the way I think he's going to.
I have no action on this fight, as I'm just going to watch it as a fan, but that's just how I see it going unfortunately.
