UFC 266 - Volkanovski vs Ortega - Offical discussion

Initially said:
You think so?

Nick is my favorite fighter of all time. His first fight with Robbie was on the first UFC card I watched.

I used to chat with him on YouTube, and I grew up watching his ups and downs.

But he's been out of the game for too long. I've been rewatching his catalogue of fights, and the main thing that stuck out to me is I forgot how hittable he is.

I have him on snapchat, and from 2016-2020 he was partying almost every single night. Nightclubs in Vegas were paying him to make appearances, and literally 4 nights a week he'd be out getting drunk as fuck.

It was sad to see. During his initial UFC run, his strikeforce run, and his subsequent UFC run, he never drank at all.

He's always had anxiety in front of cameras, and was never a great talker, but his most recent interview with Ariel was actually sad to watch.

His whole demeanor, body language, and articulation was far worse than we've ever seen it.

Lawler has been active, and he has indeed looked like a shell of himself, but that's against very good competition. His last few losses are to Magny, Colby, and RDA I believe.

If Nick was still doing triathalons, and actively in the gym, I'd probably back him here. But during the aforementioned partying, he'd be out until the sun came up every night. I really doubt he'd wake up and go hard in the gym. Maybe runs and bike rides here and there.

But I digress. As I mentioned earlier, he's always been super hittable, and that's only going to get worse with his layoff and age.

I see Robbie landing a hard shot on him early, dropping him, and swarming him with punches and the fight being stopped via tko. Nick will then complain about an early stoppage.

I think this is purely one last cash grab for Nick, and it's going to be sad to see him go out the way I think he's going to.

I have no action on this fight, as I'm just going to watch it as a fan, but that's just how I see it going unfortunately.
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Thanks for the info. I have no interest in betting him if he’s not in shape.
 
There will be a UFC Countdown for Lawler vs Diaz 2 most likely releasing later this afternoon, in the preview he seemed to be speaking a lot more clearly than he was in that Ariel interview.

 
I know the line is juicy but Jessica Andrade is basically free money here right?
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I know the line is juicy but Jessica Andrade is basically free money here right?
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I think so, unless Calvillo remembers she's a grappler which would make things a sweat.

I know it's stupid to bet on a fight between an increasingly washed up carcass of a guy who got by on power shots rather than volume against a historically durable volume puncher who's spent the better part of last decade becoming a functioning alcoholic, but I think this is the one fight Lawler should win.
 
svmr_db said:
There will be a UFC Countdown for Lawler vs Diaz 2 most likely releasing later this afternoon, in the preview he seemed to be speaking a lot more clearly than he was in that Ariel interview.

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I like Diaz here.He should roll in that fight and i got Calvillo.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
I like Diaz here.He should roll in that fight and i got Calvillo.
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I don't know how anyone can pick Diaz when it is well documented he has been partying like crazy for years and looks terrible physically and in training videos... Robbie is not Robbie of old but he still was going to decisions with the elite of the division not long ago...

Robbie at Evens seems like a steal
 
Im gonna play Ortega in a sacrificial parlay, i know its risky, but he looked laser sharped his last fight.
 
I'm pretty fucking blazed but here are my initial leans.

Ortega/Volk -- Ortega has looked reinvigorated after training at Blackhouse. His hands are better, and he's more composed in the Octagon. He's young and has dedicated himself to training, and when you're that young you improve pretty drastically from camp to camp.

When he fought Max, he was so inexperienced. As previous posters have mentioned, this comes down to how Ortega deals with Volk's low kicks though. Usually, Volk has the threat of the TD in his back pocket, and will use it to secure rounds, but he's not going to dare go for clinch/TD situations with Ortega. The BJJ advantage heavily favors Ortega.

At first glance, I think Volk's only PTD is a decision. I like betting on fighters that have multiple paths to victory, so I lean Ortega. Remember that Mendes hurt Volk standing -- Ortega, who is a huge FW, can do the same, and is live for a sub in all 5 rounds.

One edge I will give Volk is I think he has slightly better cardio. But that opinion is based off of Ortega's earlier fights. He was gassed as FUCK against Max, but Max pushes a higher pace than maybe anyone else in the UFC.

I wish I got Ortega @ +160 or better, as money has been coming in on him. But I'll still play him @ +140 or better.

Diaz/Lawler -- Big fan of Diaz. Can't state that enough, he's my favorite fighter, has been for over a decade. The card he fought Lawler on for the first time was the first UFC card I ever watched.

But I think this layoff is going to be too much for him. Between 2016-2020, as I previously mentioned to @Captain Chesapeake, he was partying like a madman.

I have him on snapchat, and Vegas was paying him to make appearances at nightclubs, so he was getting hammered 3-5 nights a week, regularly getting home after the sun came out, and I really doubt he was doing any form of sparring during that time. He was probably running and cycling, but not NEARLY as much as he was back during his early UFC days/SF run/subsequent UFC run.

Hence his quote from a few years ago, when someone asked him to fight, "I don't want to hurt nobody I just want to party".

Nick used to be on a strict vegan/gluten free diet, and NEVER drank. Like not even a beer after a fight. He basically became an alcoholic for a few years.

But at the same time, Glover recently came out and said he was an alcoholic before his last few fights and finally started training right.

Nick has had a 14 week camp, so it's not out of the realm of possibility he's in shape. But even after 14 weeks, can he look up to par in the Octagon? Physically he'll look in good shape, but he's always been so hittable.

Robbie has looked like a shell of himself recently, but against elite competition. Magny, Colby, and RDA are his last 3 losses. No shame in losing to any of them. Colby couldn't finish him over 5 rounds, and he tore up his knee in the RDA fight and RDA couldn't finish him either.

Do we really think a Nick Diaz who hasn't fought in 7 years is going to go in there and finish him? With Nick being so hittable, I unfortunately see Robbie finding Nick's chin pretty early on, dropping him(as Nick always flops to his back when hit hard, or against Daley he just straight up fell down face first). If this happens to a 38 year old Nick, Robbie will be able to capitalize and get a TKO.

I really want Nick to win, but I have to look at this fight objectively without any bias. Robbie is, as I said, a shell of himself, but Nick is too.

I think this is just a cash grab for Nick, the UFC will probably pay him 500k, and he'll ride off into the sunset after this fight.



Just half baked thoughts that I'll further expand on as the event approaches.
 
KingRyan said:
I'm going to lol at you when Medic wins and Ortega gets dominated
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Lol dude hes probably 1 of the biggest money value gambler on this site if I had to guess his parlay ticket cost 500$ at most just a guess. I dont think him losing will do much to him, With that based on how much he bets even if he wins it it will not change his life drastically so you stick with ur 5$ bets and hopefully one day you can afford a combo meal from mcdonalds
 
I think people who are high on "Ortega 2.0" are gonna be in for a shock, Zombie was a punching bag that whole fight with poor defense, I think he said he was concussed after taking that elbow & was just trying to get through the fight.
 
I'm seeing Valentina by decision at +250, anyone considering it? Shevchenko has been alternating finishes and decisions the last while, and you could argue there are stylistic similarities between Murphy and the decision wins (Carmouche and Maia).

Murphy has only ever lost by decision, but at 38 and being consistently hittable I'm not so sure she'll be able to stand up to the beating for 25 minutes. She always seems to come out of fights pretty marked up.
 
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