UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2

IDK...

Chiesa just needs to get him down and hold him there twice, something Mike is good at. And he won't get a TD stuffed and give up. He'll keep grinding for it.

Wish it was evens though or at least closer. Not sure I like this much juice.
 
mkess101 said:
IDK...

Chiesa just needs to get him down and hold him there twice, something Mike is good at. And he won't get a TD stuffed and give up. He'll keep grinding for it.

Wish it was evens though or at least closer. Not sure I like this much juice.
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Chiesa is so skewed on one side of fighting that he'll likely lose on significant strikes, Buckley looks athletic enough to avoid getting tapped and exploding to his feet.

Ctrl time vs SS

The lay off might be the tip that throws off Chiesa. I'll prop bet Buckley for a dec prop. His dec prop last time was a lot, i think it was over 400+
 
Stat_Collector said:
Chiesa is so skewed on one side of fighting that he'll likely lose on significant strikes, Buckley looks athletic enough to avoid getting tapped and exploding to his feet.

Ctrl time vs SS

The lay off might be the tip that throws off Chiesa. I'll prop bet Buckley for a dec prop. His dec prop last time was a lot, i think it was over 400+
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Yeah it's a fair point with judges REALLY seeming to favor damage over control as time goes by (which is good overall, but sometimes just completely disregards grappling). Chiesa is very much a one trick pony, but he's pretty damn good at that one trick.
 
mkess101 said:
Yeah it's a fair point with judges REALLY seeming to favor damage over control as time goes by (which is good overall, but sometimes just completely disregards grappling). Chiesa is very much a one trick pony, but he's pretty damn good at that one trick.
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i don't feel like chiesa has that dog in him anymore, he melted so fast vs luque when faced with a little resistance. he's not a full time fighter anymore with lots of his time going towards analyst desk and stuff. starting to get up there in age too and the cut has always been brutal for him. i think buckley is too athletic and if he just survives in the beginning the damage should accumulate to the point where chiesa looks for the exit like duraev.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
i don't feel like chiesa has that dog in him anymore, he melted so fast vs luque when faced with a little resistance. he's not a full time fighter anymore with lots of his time going towards analyst desk and stuff. starting to get up there in age too and the cut has always been brutal for him. i think buckley is too athletic and if he just survives in the beginning the damage should accumulate to the point where chiesa looks for the exit like duraev.
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Could be. Luque caught him in a tight choke though, early on with both guys not yet sweaty. I don't think I'll pay juice on Mike here, but I don't love Buckley in this spot either really.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
i don't feel like chiesa has that dog in him anymore, he melted so fast vs luque when faced with a little resistance. he's not a full time fighter anymore with lots of his time going towards analyst desk and stuff. starting to get up there in age too and the cut has always been brutal for him. i think buckley is too athletic and if he just survives in the beginning the damage should accumulate to the point where chiesa looks for the exit like duraev.
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The cut to 155 was certainly brutal; 170 doesn’t seem too much of an issue.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Kelvin 0-2 against southpaws in recent years.. going to bet Curtis on that alone.
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That fight is a pass for me personally ….. Curtis is soooo low output and is always losing until he finds a knockout …. I highly doubt he’s going to knock out kelvin .

and kelvin can’t be trusted either

there’s better spots to put money down
 
Stat_Collector said:
Short notice for Buck and Chiesa beat Magney and RDA, so the levels are different , Buckley not proven enough, should just fade this fight.
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I think Buckley is kind of shopworn for only being 28 as well. Chiesa does have underrated standup also; legitimately dropped Masvidal whose chin and standup in general is light years ahead of Buckley’s.
 
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Jinx_AA said:
That fight is a pass for me personally ….. Curtis is soooo low output and is always losing until he finds a knockout …. I highly doubt he’s going to knock out kelvin .

and kelvin can’t be trusted either

there’s better spots to put money down
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hit or miss. Curtis has a slicker style, Kelvin isn't a runner. So i think he'll force the aggressiveness out of Curtis.
 


Skip to 45:20 of the video.

"This could be the last one. If I lose, I'm pretty much calling it quits." -- Jorge Masvidal

Makes sense for him to say what he said, considering the length of time he's been fighting, his losing streak, and there is no bigger fight for him than fighting for the #1 contender spot against a "crotch sniffer" in Miami. If he wins, Leon will have a way to say that Jorge deserves the title shot next, as well as the history they have. If he loses, he's retiring.
 
Stat_Collector said:
hit or miss. Curtis has a slicker style, Kelvin isn't a runner. So i think he'll force the aggressiveness out of Curtis.
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I also have Curtis in this fight and I put a small bet on him.

Curtis might be low volume and I could easily see him losing a frustrating decision, but for me it's more what's on the other side.
We know what we'll get with Curtis, it's not the best but he is solid. He is most likely going to come in the same shape as last time and fight as in the last fight. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't put in a solid performance at least (win or lose).
Kelvin on the other hand... man there are so many red flags with this guy. Haven't been fighting for a long time, seems to not take fighting serious at times, injuries and cancellations.
I'll take the guy that's been active and always puts in a solid performance at plus money over a guy that may have the potential but almost never shows it.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
I was re-watching some Christian Rodriguez and Raul Rosas fights yesterday thinking that there was going to be value on Rodriguez against a somewhat untested Raul, but now I dont know. I might instead have convinced myself to pay the chalk on Raul Rosas.
I think Raul is just the type of fighter that Rodriguez is going to struggle against. I can see a lot of the same things happing to Rodriguez as in the JSP fight. Raul will go for an absolute murderous pace with constant takedown and scrambles and Rodriguez is trying to stay calm and collected but in doing so will lose rounds on the scorecards. I don't think his takedown defence is good enough to stuff the takedowns enough times. He has good scrambles so I think he will have some success from the bottom, but I don't think he can hang with the pace that Raul sets.
I re-watched Rauls contender series fight and I had forgot how good he looked in that, the pace was just relentless.

The line is pretty juiced, but if i can get a descent price on the -3.5p, i'm seriously considering that.
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Rodriguez was fighting hard deep into the third round on DWCS and in his UFC debut. I don't see an issue with his conditioning. His takedown defense and consistent exposure of his back when building back to his feet is almost certainly going to get him submitted against a slick back taker like Rosas. Rosas only needs 10% of the time JSP spent on Rodriguez's back to sub him. Also on DWCS Rodriguez kept overswinging himself into the clinch where his opponent who couldn't take him down would control him on the cage wall for extended sequences. If he does this against Rosas it will quickly lead to the takedown every single time.

Rodriguez is a tailor made opponent for Rosas to finish quickly. All of his weaknesses and bad habits play into the strengths of Rosas. Not that Rosas needs a layup opponent because he is very good but this has all the makings of a showcase fight. This would be a safer play if Rodriguez didn't have submissions off his back but Rosas has demonstrated in his previous fights that he can defend a variety of submissions and seems to consistently make good decisions.

Rosas is definitely the side and one of the safer plays on the card.
 
I'll be one of the fools on Sherman. I don't understand how Williams odds can be that high. I was on him in the last fight, but gameplanning for him is pretty simple. It's a bigger cage too, so I can see him really wearing out.
 
Oblivian said:
I'll be one of the fools on Sherman. I don't understand how Williams odds can be that high. I was on him in the last fight, but gameplanning for him is pretty simple. It's a bigger cage too, so I can see him really wearing out.
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At these odds i think it's dog or pass. I'm not sold on Karl Williams... but I think he gets this done pretty comfortably. He should be able to get the takedowns and Sherman is probably going to struggle pretty bad to get back up.
 
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