UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2, October 21, Abu Dhabi

[ExitLUPin]

After seeing Farid outclass Kleydson my gut is telling me this might be Javid's first UFC finish.

Might take a little stab at his itd odds.

Kleydson is a blown up FLW who was controlled for multiple minutes and put on the backfoot the majority of the fight by CJ Vergara.... Why on earth would that be a good indication that he can finish Henry whos never been finished, is a good sized BW with a proven chin whos been in there w/ the likes of Rafael Silva (one of the best most dangerous grapplers @ BW), Kyler Phillips, Denis Lavrentyev, Raoni Barcelos.... I cant even think of a time he was in danger of being seriously finished or even dropped and hes somehow who eats alot of shots. Hes like a poor mans Max Holloway.

 

[Thesnake101]

Kleydson is a blown up FLW who was controlled for multiple minutes and put on the backfoot the majority of the fight by CJ Vergara.... Why on earth would that be a good indication that he can finish Henry whos never been finished, is a good sized BW with a proven chin whos been in there w/ the likes of Rafael Silva (one of the best most dangerous grapplers @ BW), Kyler Phillips, Denis Lavrentyev, Raoni Barcelos.... I cant even think of a time he was in danger of being seriously finished or even dropped and hes somehow who eats alot of shots. Hes like a poor mans Max Holloway.

Like I said, it's a gut feeling, not a strong lean or prediction.

At any rate, I think Javid is going to flummox him on the feet, even if he doesn't manage to impose his grappling like he wants to. He might drop the first round but after that I think he'll run away with it.

Victor's performances after his UFC debut haven't been too impressive, which is probably due to the combination of facing solid comp and being 36 already.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Islam KO/TKO is +700 while sub is +210 (dec is +220)



Makes no sense. If you played Islam sub based off Ortega fight that makes sense.... But fight showed Islam had little ability to sub Volk even in dominant positions. Meanwhile Islam hurt Volk on the feet multiple times. Yair also cracked Volk bad at one point in his last fight. He is vulnerable to be countered.

Club and sub is only way I see Islam getting a sub.... Which might happen but KO/TKO is way too wide IMO. GNP TKO is prob even a better bet than subbing Volk for Islam. Islam wont have weightcutting or rehydration issues in Abu Dhabi like he did in Australia and size advantage will be more pronounced. Volk has Craig in his corner and in general his sub defense and ability to get out of bad positions or stall is great.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

After seeing Farid outclass Kleydson my gut is telling me this might be Javid's first UFC finish.

Might take a little stab at his itd odds.

Farid is a much better finisher than his brother and takes a lot more risks in general too finish fights. Victor Henry is also extremely durable, has never been finished in nearly 30 professional fights, and wasn't getting finished in Russian promotional fights where he was brought in as the clear b-side.

I agree Javid wins, his footwork is going to make it very difficult for Henry to land clean, but its almost certainly going to be by decision.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah I've been thinking about this fight. Peek isn't good and he needs gifts of fights where he can just win with his power. But it looks like Yahya might be that to him. And I'd go as far as saying these odds are pretty nice for Peek here.

Watch Yahya's last fight with the 4-3 French dude (that was finished in all 3 losses prior to Yahya getting a decision against him). Yahya looks like a dude tailor made for Peek. Backs up, hesitant to throw and when he does hi chin goes straight up in the air. Like he's putting a sign on it that says "Please KO me right here".

Peek doesn't have well rounded skills but he has grit and power and seemingly no fear, imo that's enough to smoke this dude. Of course he could lose if he's held down or stalled out but Yahya doesn't look like he's anything better than pedestrian himself in those areas.

IMO correct line is something like Peek -225 to -250. Not a lock or squash match given the holes in Peek's game, but absolutely don't see this as a near pick 'em either and opening Yahya as a favorite was insane.

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

I like the over 2.5 on Usman vs Chimaev @ +150. I think this fight goes to decision more likely than not.
A sub for either side is very unlikely IMO. I'm predicting a kinda boring fight with lots of clinchwork against the cage for Usman and both guys wrestling cancelling each other.
Maybe it will look a little bit like Usman vs Covington or a slower paced Chimaev vs Burns.

 

[mkess101]

⁰

I like the over 2.5 on Usman vs Chimaev @ +150. I think this fight goes to decision more likely than not.
A sub for either side is very unlikely IMO. I'm predicting a kinda boring fight with lots of clinchwork against the cage for Usman and both guys wrestling cancelling each other.
Maybe it will look a little bit like Usman vs Covington or a slower paced Chimaev vs Burns.

I absolutely disagree. Usman is older, slower, considerably smaller and while once an extremely effective offensive wrestler (obviously), will have little clue on how to deal with Khamzat's all out aggression. I think Usman gets bullied and finished here. Likely in rd 1.

Khamzat vs Burns was a banger, and Khamzat doesn't seem to know what a "slower pace" is. He's all out, all the time. And there's no way he's not gonna want to put on a show in front of his Muslim brothers in the UAE. The thing that saved Burns in that fight imo was his world champion level bjj. Khamzat wasn't as reckless getting to top position vs a guy that elite on the mat. Usman if put on his back offers nothing like that.

Fading aging guys isn't always the right play obviously. Edson just showed us his heart and durability by surviving rd 1 then winning. I think this is different. Usman isn't close to what he was and it showed in the Leon rematch. Khamzat knows one speed: all out. Spells a quick finish imo.

 

[Guld]

⁰


I absolutely disagree. Usman is older, slower, considerably smaller and while once an extremely effective offensive wrestler (obviously), will have little clue on how to deal with Khamzat's all out aggression. I think Usman gets bullied and finished here. Likely in rd 1.

Khamzat vs Burns was a banger, and Khamzat doesn't seem to know what a "slower pace" is. He's all out, all the time. And there's no way he's not gonna want to put on a show in front of his Muslim brothers in the UAE. The thing that saved Burns in that fight imo was his world champion level bjj. Khamzat wasn't as reckless getting to top position vs a guy that elite on the mat. Usman if put on his back offers nothing like that.

Fading aging guys isn't always the right play obviously. Edson just showed us his heart and durability by surviving rd 1 then winning. I think this is different. Usman isn't close to what he was and it showed in the Leon rematch. Khamzat knows one speed: all out. Spells a quick finish imo.

Yeah, I was gonna say the same thing.
Usman's "bad knees" were never tested because everyone he fought (very limited pool these last few years) chose to stand with him instead.
Khamzat might as well, but he'd be an idiot to do so.
I have a feeling he will have huge success if he just keeps the grappling pressure on, and like you said, that's exactly the way Khamzat typically fights. Full throttle right from the start.
With that being said, I'm expecting them now to have a terrible sparring session fight just to prove me wrong haha.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah, I was gonna say the same thing.
Usman's "bad knees" were never tested because everyone he fought (very limited pool these last few years) chose to stand with him instead.
Khamzat might as well, but he'd be an idiot to do so.
I have a feeling he will have huge success if he just keeps the grappling pressure on, and like you said, that's exactly the way Khamzat typically fights. Full throttle right from the start.
With that being said, I'm expecting them now to have a terrible sparring session fight just to prove me wrong haha.

So far, Khamzat has lived up to his "I'm gonna kill everyone" all out style in every one of his fights. All aggression, all the time. Until he shows he's capable of anything else, no point trying to fade it.

Under 9.75 minutes fight time on Prizepicks is my biggest play.

 

[Guld]

So far, Khamzat has lived up to his "I'm gonna kill everyone" all out style in every one of his fights. All aggression, all the time. Until he shows he's capable of anything else, no point trying to fade it.

Under 9.75 minutes fight time on Prizepicks is my biggest play.

Not a bad bet, but despite Usman's age/worn knees/cracked chin etc. he is still tough to finish.
I kinda feel like Khamzat by sub/stoppage is a real possibility, but I'll see how tasty the Over/Under/Decision lines are first.

 

[rev0lver]

Odds definitely long, I'm trying to decide whether it's one of those fights where I think the guy is too long but loses anyway just loses by less than the odds suggested though.

Feel the same way about Tim Elliott

I actually agree with the Tim Elliott comparison. But would I take a Tim Elliott at +350 against a non top 15 pointfighter? Yes I would.

I think it's fair for Javid to be the favorite, and I will not be surprised if he does look a level above for 3 rounds. But Henry's going to be constantly attacking no matter where the fight is, and I think Javid's going to have to survive and counter that for the whole 15 minutes. Would probably not go huge on Henry, but a chance for that to turn $5 into $20? Sounds like the better bet to me, and it's by no means a long shot.

 

[mkess101]

Not a bad bet, but despite Usman's age/worn knees/cracked chin etc. he is still tough to finish.
I kinda feel like Khamzat by sub/stoppage is a real possibility, but I'll see how tasty the Over/Under/Decision lines are first.

Yeah but remember Usman got his skull kicked into the nether realm fight before last. Nearing the end of a career, that's gonna make a guy less durable. Concussions have a cumulative effect.

I think the size factor matters too. Khamzat was a MW killing himself to make 170 and now doesn't have to. Usman is a WW who had no real options left in staying there so sort of had to move up.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

$5 into $20? Sounds like the better bet to me, and it's by no means a long shot.

So you mean to tell me you are only betting $5 on these fights yet you had the nerve to gleefully write about how happy you were Torrez Finney didn't get a UFC contract due to your terrible handicapping?

Well guess I was wrong on Finney technically but was right that he still kinda sucks lol. Glad he didn't get a contract.

unreal.

 

[mkess101]

I actually agree with the Tim Elliott comparison. But would I take a Tim Elliott at +350 against a non top 15 pointfighter? Yes I would.

I think it's fair for Javid to be the favorite, and I will not be surprised if he does look a level above for 3 rounds. But Henry's going to be constantly attacking no matter where the fight is, and I think Javid's going to have to survive and counter that for the whole 15 minutes. Would probably not go huge on Henry, but a chance for that to turn $5 into $20? Sounds like the better bet to me, and it's by no means a long shot.

Jhavid fantasy score on Prizepicks is 107.5. I'm on the under. Henry never finished, and for Jhavid to go over in a decision win he'd need to hit like 5-6 TD's and land a lot of sig strikes. I don't see it. I think Jhavid likely wins but doesn't come close to this fantasy score.

 

[rev0lver]

So you mean to tell me you are only betting $5 on these fights yet you had the nerve to gleefully write about how happy you were Torrez Finney didn't get a UFC contract due to your terrible handicapping?

I'm using an example of a small bet, I'm probably betting more than $5 on it myself lol. No clue why you're still upset a whole week later that I was correct on Finney being bad, sloppy, and short just because he won. Just like this fight, I would feel content taking an L if I can stand by my reasoning.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I'm using an example of a small bet, I'm probably betting more than $5 on it myself lol. No clue why you're still upset a whole week later that I was correct on Finney being bad, sloppy, and short just because he won. Just like this fight, I would feel content taking an L if I can stand by my reasoning.

The fact you stand by that absolutely terrible analysis on Finney and still can't admit he looked fine says everything.

The reason I brought your post up is because its absurd that a guy whose unit size is $5 would would want any fighter, like Finney, to experience a major life setback over losing their bet.

At least if the bet was $5,000 it would be more understandable, though still wrong, but you literally wrote you were glad the guy didn't get a contract because you lost a $5 bet; thats disgusting.

 

[rev0lver]

The fact you stand by that absolutely terrible analysis on Finney and still can't admit he looked fine says everything.

The reason I brought your post up is because its absurd that a guy whose unit size is $5 would would want any fighter, like Finney, to experience a major life setback over losing their bet.

At least if the bet was $5,000 it would be more understandable, though still wrong, but you literally wrote you were glad the guy didn't get a contract because you lost a $5 bet; thats disgusting.

Nowhere did I say I was personally betting $5. I was giving an example of a small bet for easy math.

Every prediction I saw was on Finney, and I saw him as a good target to bet against because of his size and struggles to secure and maintain positions at low levels. Both ended up being a problem, and I was happy he didn't get a contract because he showed he wasn't UFC-ready yet, just like I thought, not because I was mad I lost my bet. And I'm glad I didn't have the confidence everyone else did or else I'd have a heart attack in that fight.

It's super weird of you to bring that into a totally unrelated thread because I posted example math. Relax.

 

[guesswhoseback]

The fact you stand by that absolutely terrible analysis on Finney and still can't admit he looked fine says everything.

The reason I brought your post up is because its absurd that a guy whose unit size is $5 would would want any fighter, like Finney, to experience a major life setback over losing their bet.

At least if the bet was $5,000 it would be more understandable, though still wrong, but you literally wrote you were glad the guy didn't get a contract because you lost a $5 bet; thats disgusting.

The value of a bet has no indication to me of whose a better handicapper. Some people just may have more money to gamble if bill gates started gambling and his unit sizes were 1 million dollars would you pay more attention to what he is saying then what anyone else is saying I for sure wouldn't people look at the value someone is betting to much when it should have no indication at all but oh well. Just because someone is betting 200 per fight does not mean he or she is better then someone who is betting 5$ per fight

 

[Chris Wang]

Volk just got hand surgery no? Aint knocking nobody out with dat hand

 

[rev0lver]

Volk just got hand surgery no? Aint knocking nobody out with dat hand

He had surgery and a 6 week rehab, but that would've ended like 2 months ago. Apparently it was bothering him since before the first fight. So he could potentially feel better with it now.