UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington, Las Vegas, December 16

[mkess101]

Unfortunately you are very off here.

Emmett should be favorite here. Easy win for Emmett, u'll see.

Maybe. He's live of course, he still has the power to hurt anyone in the division with one shot. He's just looked off and gunshy lately. And 38 is really old for 145, that's just an objective fact.

 

[Bakayoko]

Anyone else think Menifield-Jacoby is a close fight? Menifield has looked good in his last couple fights, and he's +170 now.

The odds are tempting true,but I can’t get away from the fact that fighting twice a no defense hittable Crute made Alonzo looked better than he is.Jacoby is a different matchup.I wouldn’t touch that fight at these odds.

 

[Danis_champ]

Lol at people steaming that Randy Brown -300 line. Salikhov was -200 fav against Dalby, lost and now gets buried like a complete bum?

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Took Brian Kelleher to beat Cody Garbrandt with scorecard = no action @+150 on BOL.

I think Cody might win this and he does have serious power, but he is just so gun shy these days. Even in the Assuncao KO he looked almost scared and I would classify that as more of lucky punch... might be a bit hard, but it did seem a bit random.
If Cody wins this fight and he might, I think it's gonna be a combination of staying on the outside with potshots and wrestling.
Kelleher on the other hand is one of those underrated guys imo, he is not great but he is a pretty solid fighter. Looking at his most recent losses I think all three of them would steamroll Cody as well. If Kelleher can keep this fight even on the stand-up I think he has a lot more finishing upside over a guy like Cody who has lost most of his chin.

Worth noting is also that Kelleher is on his last fight on his contract. He has much to win and nothing to lose really. If he loses or perhaps even wins a boring decision he might not get his contract extended.

 

[sonhow]

Count me in the Alonzo Moneyfield train.

 

[mkess101]

The odds are tempting true,but I can’t get away from the fact that fighting twice a no defense hittable Crute made Alonzo looked better than he is.Jacoby is a different matchup.I wouldn’t touch that fight at these odds.

Menifield actually may cage hug more in this one to avoid a kickboxing match. I think he's happy to strike with Jacoby but on his terms. Dirty boxing, clinch, etc.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I’m parlaying all dogs and I’ll see you all in Valhalla

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Menifield actually may cage hug more in this one to avoid a kickboxing match. I think he's happy to strike with Jacoby but on his terms. Dirty boxing, clinch, etc.

Talk me out of betting ferg at +230

 

[mkess101]

Talk me out of betting ferg at +230

I wouldn't. Paddy is an overhyped prospect for sure. He's okay, but not half as good as the UFC wants him to be.

But Tony is washed. Like...WASHED washed. Oddly, it's not the striking where it has showed as much as the grappling. Used to be he was so active with his guard, sliced guys with elbows off his back, attacked. Endless energy to the point where he could tire guys out just from being in his guard.

Now? He still has moments striking where the old Tony shines through. Unorthodox stuff that lands, movement that mixes up an opponent. Nate and Green got clipped by him pretty good even if they both had the edge with the striking. But the grappling...it's a completely different guy. Off his back he looks trapped. His once endless cardio is now just decent, and near the end of fights he's ripe to be subbed because he does get tired. (Green and Nate got him late).

I wouldn't play Paddy here and pay this juice, but betting on Tony these days vs anyone that's not a complete bum seems like wasting $. Better to watch Paddy likely win and finish and hope it inflates his line next time out vs someone more in their prime. Then smash that line.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Edwards def. Covington via TKO (head kick
and knee and punches and elbow)
R2 4:20

Pantoja def. Royval via split decision (49-48, 49-48, 48-49)

Rakhmonov def. Thompson via submission (darce choke)
R1 4:59

Pimblett def. Ferguson via submission (rear naked choke)
R3 1:18

Garry def. Luque via KO (punch)
R1 0:07

Emmett def. Mitchell via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Garbrandt def. Kelleher via unanimous decision (30-24, 30-24, 30-25)

Jacoby def. Menifield via TKO (leg kicks and knees and punches and body kick)
R2 2:11

Brown def. Salikhov via KO (punches)
R1 1:27

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Colby has been rocked in 3 of his last 4 fights including the easy win over Masvidal. The ghost of Woodley wasnt that much of a threat either. If I see an Edwards KD threat I'm taking it.

 

[Thesnake101]

Salikhov by KO is worth a stab against someone as chinny as Brown I think.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Seen lots of people on the Menifield side and I agree that it's dog or pass here, but for me it's an easy pass. I just re-watched last fight against Crute and Menifields striking is so predictable when he is getting a bit tired.
In the second round, Menifield basically throws the same 2 punch combo for 2.5 min straight... over and over the same two punches. I can't imagine this ending well against polished striker like Jacoby.
You are basically playing his ITD line, which in my view is not good enough.

 

[sonhow]

Seen lots of people on the Menifield side and I agree that it's dog or pass here, but for me it's an easy pass. I just re-watched last fight against Crute and Menifields striking is so predictable when he is getting a bit tired.
In the second round, Menifield basically throws the same 2 punch combo for 2.5 min straight... over and over the same two punches. I can't imagine this ending well against polished striker like Jacoby.
You are basically playing his ITD line, which in my view is not good enough.

I could see Jacoby losing a decision. He sometimes has trouble with agressive guys like Cutelaba and Murtz plus he let those John Allan and Khalil fights get bit too close for my liking.
Also seems Menifield is doing the best job of his career at the moment. He fights well enough in bursts and doesnt seem to gas out like he did earlier in his career.

 

[Thesnake101]

Seen lots of people on the Menifield side and I agree that it's dog or pass here, but for me it's an easy pass. I just re-watched last fight against Crute and Menifields striking is so predictable when he is getting a bit tired.
In the second round, Menifield basically throws the same 2 punch combo for 2.5 min straight... over and over the same two punches. I can't imagine this ending well against polished striker like Jacoby.
You are basically playing his ITD line, which in my view is not good enough.

Yeah, I think Jacoby would have to fuck up badly to lose here. He's a pretty durable, seasoned striker and probably has the greater finishing upside in this matchup.

Alonzo is at his best forcing wrestler/grapplers into striking exchanges, against anything other than that he starts looking more pedestrian and relies on his athleticism too much. Hell, Jacoby arguably beat a better version of Alonzo in Rountree already.

 

[sonhow]

Maybe Im a dumb idiot but what the heck is Colbys way to win here? You could say takedowns and control but Usman to my eye is better at both and we just saw Leon shut him down this year. Also Colby really doesnt control elite competion unless you count Mas, Lawler or Woodley, all past thier best, as elite competion. Against Usman and RDA he changed his style a bit and took a cardio boxing route. I assume this is the plan here as well. The problem is this is absolutely what Leon wants to happen. He can strike with Colby all night.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Many of you will remember when I took Joe Pyfer as a max bet to begin my tracked history as a bettor on SD.


Now I will place my second tracked bet and look to add to my already +7.25 portfolio.

20U Garbrandt -200

Should hopefully see me enter the new year +17.25.

 

[Oblivian]

Maybe Im a dumb idiot but what the heck is Colbys way to win here? You could say takedowns and control but Usman to my eye is better at both and we just saw Leon shut him down this year. Also Colby really doesnt control elite competion unless you count Mas, Lawler or Woodley, all past thier best, as elite competion. Against Usman and RDA he changed his style a bit and took a cardio boxing route. I assume this is the plan here as well. The problem is this is absolutely what Leon wants to happen. He can strike with Colby all night.

I favor Colby here. I think volume and pace will be the key. I think he'll be trying to mix in takedowns while also striking. I think we'll see cage work eat up the clock too. Overall, I think he'll just be busier and look much busier to the judges.

 

[sonhow]

I favor Colby here. I think volume and pace will be the key. I think he'll be trying to mix in takedowns while also striking. I think we'll see cage work eat up the clock too. Overall, I think he'll just be busier and look much busier to the judges.

Good to see differing opinion. Respect. Wont make me feel too dumb if Leon loses
It would just be way easier for me to buy if Colby had beaten elite competition but aside from RDA six years ago -he really hasnt.
And I mean that in a sense that he doesn't have wins that other people havent done better than him.
His best work by far are the two Usman fights - yeah thats the best guy in the div but I guess I believe it when I see it. He is getting up there in age. Inactivity probably might work in his favor though. He's gonna be fresh as a daisy.

 

[mkess101]

Colby is 100% gonna try to keep Leon pushed against the cage and make it a clinchfest. Everything he does is with the goal of wearing an opponent out. Weaponized cardio. And it **might** work here. People forget that Leon gassed HARD against Nate not that long ago and damn near was finished in a fight that he mostly controlled.