UFC 300 Play-By-Play

Feels like everyone online has bet Jamahal yet Alex being the slight favorite has never even flirted with being even money. Closed a bit but hes been the favorite the whole time....
 
ExitLUPin said:
Feels like everyone online has bet Jamahal yet Alex being the slight favorite has never even flirted with being even money. Closed a bit but hes been the favorite the whole time....
Click to expand...
Nah 70% of bets are on Pereira
 
ExitLUPin said:
Feels like everyone online has bet Jamahal yet Alex being the slight favorite has never even flirted with being even money. Closed a bit but hes been the favorite the whole time....
Click to expand...
Alex would obviously carry the "casual' money. He is also a legitimate bet, regardless.
I got him to finish a couple of my parlays and bets, and I probably should hedge, but I'm riding high enough that I'll just leave my bets on Poatan and only hedge when/if I see the fight going Hill's way.
 
Damn, Hill's walkout song sucks haha
 
That was the best reaction + follow up to a groin strike ever haha
 
$1050 profit for today but DAMN was so close to make it $3k always bullshit at the end
 
Aside from my Turner bet, my hedge sprinkle on Miller by Sub, and my hedge on Yan (that I cancelled after the 4th rnd) I hit everything else.
Huge night for me.
Regardless of my wins, the fights were great to watch! The card really delivered.
I hope everyone had a great night, and that you all enjoy the rest of your weekend! 🍻
 
Georges Hefner said:
7-1 on my bets tonight

✅ Tsarukyan 2 unit -225
Click to expand...

Sure chief:

Fig will perform very good without the 10 pound weight cut and he’ll also have a twenty pound advantage over Cody. He is a natural flyweight so him losing to Kai is embarrassing. Fig’s age is not a problem
FIGUEIREDO BY KNOCKOUT

Green looked washed against Tony which is why he was a big underdog against Dawson. And now he’s coming off a brutal loss. Miller already won in UFC 100 and 200. He will win again at UFC 300
MILLER BY DECISION

Andrade is going to win by being stronger and having a grappling/experience edge. She slammed Rose on her head and broke her nose in the rematch. Marina is a frail weak little girl. Andrade will push her to the ground and maul her
ANDRADE BY DECISION

Turner will have almost 50 pound advantage over Moicano come fight night. Moicano doesn’t have the takedown entries of Gamrot. This fight will remain standing and Moicano is gonna get slept
TURNER BY KNOCKOUT

Lopes is going to win because Yusuff has bad defense and he is very easy to fool. Lopes is a trickster and his skill level is around Evloev
LOPES BY SUBMISSION

Harrison is going to maul Holm and I like the plus money inside the distance
HARRISON BY SUBMISSION

Sterling is going to outwrestle Kattar. Kattar can catch him but it’s very unlikely in my opinion. Size-wise I don’t think will be a problem at all. Kattar doesn’t have the striking finesse of Omalley, not even close. He will be better prepared for this fight
STERLING BY DECISION

Rakic will have a 30 pound advantage over Jiri. I’ve seen Reyes outwrestle Jiri and Dolloway leg kick him. Stylistically this is a good fight for Rakic. He’s a strong wrestler with good kicks. He has high IQ and fights very smart. Jiri has been figured out and his mystique is gone. I also know that Serbians are very strong, not just physically but mentally. I’m not worried about the layoff and injury. We have seen Aspinall come back better than ever
RAKIC BY DECISION

Bo takes him down and submits him. Ive seen Dumas outwrestle Brundage. There is value in Nickal by submission in round one
NICKAL BY SUBMISSION

Tsarukyan is going to takedown Oliveira and maul him. Outside of a lucky punch, Arman will win this fight. I think the difference will be Armans willingness to take this fight to the ground. This will be a changing of the guard
TSARUKYAN BY DECISION

Gaethje is old and has taken a lot of damage. Holloway is the best boxer in the UFC. There’s a reason people say “The Blessed is Best.” Gaethje looked awful in the Fiziev fight and Max is bigger and way better than Fiziev. Gaethje also has overrated power and I’ve seen him get finished by Alvarez and Poirier. Holloway did better against Poirier around this time (2018-2019)
HOLLOWAY BY KNOCKOUT

They are both strikers but Zhang has a grappling edge. But sometimes fighters don’t wrestle when they have the grappling advantage. I’m not very confident, I think there is value in underdog
ZHANG BY DECISION

Pereira is almost 40 and we’ve seen him get KO’d in the ufc octagon. Jamahal is the fresher, younger, new generation fighter. He has a granite chin and he’s improving at a rapid pace
HILL BY KNOCKOUT
 
StewDogg11 said:
Sure chief:

Fig will perform very good without the 10 pound weight cut and he’ll also have a twenty pound advantage over Cody. He is a natural flyweight so him losing to Kai is embarrassing. Fig’s age is not a problem
FIGUEIREDO BY KNOCKOUT

Green looked washed against Tony which is why he was a big underdog against Dawson. And now he’s coming off a brutal loss. Miller already won in UFC 100 and 200. He will win again at UFC 300
MILLER BY DECISION

Andrade is going to win by being stronger and having a grappling/experience edge. She slammed Rose on her head and broke her nose in the rematch. Marina is a frail weak little girl. Andrade will push her to the ground and maul her
ANDRADE BY DECISION

Turner will have almost 50 pound advantage over Moicano come fight night. Moicano doesn’t have the takedown entries of Gamrot. This fight will remain standing and Moicano is gonna get slept
TURNER BY KNOCKOUT

Lopes is going to win because Yusuff has bad defense and he is very easy to fool. Lopes is a trickster and his skill level is around Evloev
LOPES BY SUBMISSION

Harrison is going to maul Holm and I like the plus money inside the distance
HARRISON BY SUBMISSION

Sterling is going to outwrestle Kattar. Kattar can catch him but it’s very unlikely in my opinion. Size-wise I don’t think will be a problem at all. Kattar doesn’t have the striking finesse of Omalley, not even close. He will be better prepared for this fight
STERLING BY DECISION

Rakic will have a 30 pound advantage over Jiri. I’ve seen Reyes outwrestle Jiri and Dolloway leg kick him. Stylistically this is a good fight for Rakic. He’s a strong wrestler with good kicks. He has high IQ and fights very smart. Jiri has been figured out and his mystique is gone. I also know that Serbians are very strong, not just physically but mentally. I’m not worried about the layoff and injury. We have seen Aspinall come back better than ever
RAKIC BY DECISION

Bo takes him down and submits him. Ive seen Dumas outwrestle Brundage. There is value in Nickal by submission in round one
NICKAL BY SUBMISSION

Tsarukyan is going to takedown Oliveira and maul him. Outside of a lucky punch, Arman will win this fight. I think the difference will be Armans willingness to take this fight to the ground. This will be a changing of the guard
TSARUKYAN BY DECISION

Gaethje is old and has taken a lot of damage. Holloway is the best boxer in the UFC. There’s a reason people say “The Blessed is Best.” Gaethje looked awful in the Fiziev fight and Max is bigger and way better than Fiziev. Gaethje also has overrated power and I’ve seen him get finished by Alvarez and Poirier. Holloway did better against Poirier around this time (2018-2019)
HOLLOWAY BY KNOCKOUT

They are both strikers but Zhang has a grappling edge. But sometimes fighters don’t wrestle when they have the grappling advantage. I’m not very confident, I think there is value in underdog
ZHANG BY DECISION

Pereira is almost 40 and we’ve seen him get KO’d in the ufc octagon. Jamahal is the fresher, younger, new generation fighter. He has a granite chin and he’s improving at a rapid pace
HILL BY KNOCKOUT
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Those arent bets. I posted my bets before every fight everyone saw
 
Man that bullshit at the end of rd 1
of Weili/Yan did actually cost me a lot of $. I was sitting at the bar with @PuertoRican and said to him that it screwed me out of my Weili sub bet and I had a bet on Weili fastest sub at +1300 which would've cashed. But I hit 3 live bets on Weili at silly odds that made up for those and I wouldn't have had a chance to place had the fight been stopped when it should've. So a wash there.

But...he reminded me I had a parlay that it was the 2nd leg of. Which was:
Max KO/Weili sub/...and...you guessed it Perreira KO
So a +5200 parlay busted because that ref let a fighter continue that was stumbling around and completely out of it.

Bullshit LOL. Still made good $ but...shit.
 
mkess101 said:
Man that bullshit at the end of rd 1
of Weili/Yan did actually cost me a lot of $. I was sitting at the bar with @PuertoRican and said to him that it screwed me out of my Weili sub bet and I had a bet on Weili fastest sub at +1300 which would've cashed. But I hit 3 live bets on Weili at silly odds that made up for those and I wouldn't have had a chance to place had the fight been stopped when it should've. So a wash there.

But...he reminded me I had a parlay that it was the 2nd leg of. Which was:
Max KO/Weili sub/...and...you guessed it Perreira KO
So a +5200 parlay busted because that ref let a fighter continue that was stumbling around and completely out of it.

Bullshit LOL. Still made good $ but...shit.
Click to expand...
Yeah, awful. First round was the RNC I think, 2nd or 3rd was the arm triangle choke. So close to hitting. I had Zhang sub, ITD, and under 4.5, that shit just hurts.

For Max/JG I had different ITD bets, Max by tko(decision = no score) @+330 odds, Fight ITD, but also a couple of $100 bets on under 4.5 across 3 bookies. I guess it would have been worse if it went to a decision. But that fight is a perfect example that there is a world inside that second of difference. Max breaking JG's nose at the last second of the first round, and the out cold ko at the last second of the fight. That's why I get so annoyed when people high-five each other constantly during the fight or take the last 10 seconds of the round off, it's just so many missed opportunities.


I thought the under 4.5 was a great bet because I thought JG would possibly burn himself out for a finish and Max would slowly suffocate him with volume a la Kattar and Ortega (possibly even getting hurt at the start but surviving). And it would also take into account a possible JG finish. 5 rounds against either fighter is a dangerous prospect, either you get stopped by brute force, or by a war of attrition.
 
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