UFC Fight Night 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz

[trident]

Thank you guys. Much appreciated. Still need some outside victories to close the deal but it would probably drive me to the crazyhouse if they all hit and Yoels got reversed.

My parlay for this weekend is Cruz, Browne, Pearson and Pettis.

Im a parlay junkie. Im just not going to fight it anymore.

 

[weedreference]

I think if you're gonna play Herman his dec line is juicy. Forgot where its at but I know I liked it. Prob stab it myself even though Boetsch ML is in my biggest parlay. Can't see anyway Ed wins this other than grinding.

Really? I think sub is close to as likely as grinding it out. KO isn't entirely out of the question either.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Really? I think sub is close to as likely as grinding it out. KO isn't entirely out of the question either.

Herman has absolutely no stopping power on the feet and I don't see Herman being able to work to a position on the mat he can go for a sub. I'm actually flat out shocked at the few in here who think Herman can finish this. I really don't like his chances at all, but if he were to win I see him having to grind away in the clinch. And thats not very likely to happen considering Boetsch is a bit better there, and not an easy guy to clinch if he doesn't want you to.

 

[piglord]

sup bros?

i've been jacking my wiener in the fucking UFC forum for the past week waiting for the betting thread to arrive with no luck. then i finally found this sub-forum like a dumbass.

i threw £150 on a latifi and pearson double, returns £350, quite confident.

i think mitrione, alvarez and cruz are all worth wagering on at dog odds, especially cruz

 

[piglord]

Who else has picked Trinaldo? I personally feel Trinaldo is being overrated due to his last fight which was a win over an overrated Laprise. Ross generally struggles with heavy handed / quick strikers. Ross has speed advantage here and while Trinaldo has pop hes a decision merchant so im not too fearful for Ross's chin. If this is a striking battle i cannot see Ross losing. People seem to be relying on Trinaldo mixing it up but hes never really fought like that. His takedowns are not great either hes struggled to take everyone down in all his fights i have watched bar Arreola who has terrible t/d defence. If it wasnt for that fight im sure Trinaldo's t/d success would be around 20% in the UFC. Ross has very good tdd im sure he underestimated Dunham's t/d ability and also expected a standup fight based on how Dunham had been fighting. Im sure he will be anticipating t/d attempts from Trinaldo. Trinaldo's record is also somewhat skewed he lost to Parke and the Silva fight could have gone either way.

Hes an old LW @ 37, this is only his 3rd fight out of Brazil and what with the drugs ban who knows if we get the same Trinaldo. Its a big weight cut too that at 37 musf be getting harder each fight.

Pearson is not my most confident bet ever but im 4-1 betting him and feel stylistically this is a good fight for him as Trinaldo seems happy to trade and his t/ds are not great. Ross is the best striker Trinaldo has faced and i expect/hope that will show. Hes akso fit as a fiddle so Trinaldo better not gas himself fighting for t/ds.

man i've been behind a lot of the same fighters as you recently (i was on condit, larkin and noke as well last week and got fucked), here is no different.

i rewatched trinaldo's last two fights, perfectly content to stand and bang and didn't even shoot for a takedown in either fights. perhaps he was trying to exploit a stylistic weakness in norman parke's standup but i think he's just got more confident in his hands, which makes me think he might do the same shit against pearson.

unless pearson gets dry humped to death, he still has much better standup than trinaldo even with improvements (and maybe some special sauce flowing through his veins). trinaldo also tends to fade late in fights which doesn't bode well for him against such a precise puncher as pearson.

personally i think people picking trinaldo are putting too much emphasis on his recent surge rather than the way the styles match up, which is why i'm on pearson.

 

[chemmy]

man i've been behind a lot of the same fighters as you recently (i was on condit, larkin and noke as well last week and got fucked), here is no different.

i rewatched trinaldo's last two fights, perfectly content to stand and bang and didn't even shoot for a takedown in either fights. perhaps he was trying to exploit a stylistic weakness in norman parke's standup but i think he's just got more confident in his hands, which makes me think he might do the same shit against pearson.

unless pearson gets dry humped to death, he still has much better standup than trinaldo even with improvements (and maybe some special sauce flowing through his veins). trinaldo also tends to fade late in fights which doesn't bode well for him against such a precise puncher as pearson.

personally i think people picking trinaldo are putting too much emphasis on his recent surge rather than the way the styles match up, which is why i'm on pearson.

I tend to agree. I have a decent-sized bet on Pearson and I'm fairly confident in it, though I wish I would've gotten him closer to even money.

 

[bootsy]

I put a small wager on a straight up parlay of TJ, Pettis and Cote (I'm also a parlay junky!).

Spending some of my Lawler robbery money!

 

[Stunna77]

Herman has absolutely no stopping power on the feet and I don't see Herman being able to work to a position on the mat he can go for a sub. I'm actually flat out shocked at the few in here who think Herman can finish this. I really don't like his chances at all, but if he were to win I see him having to grind away in the clinch. And thats not very likely to happen considering Boetsch is a bit better there, and not an easy guy to clinch if he doesn't want you to.

Yea JB I agree with almost everything here, think if there is a lot of clinch work that Boetsch uses his strength and dirty boxing (like his comeback against Okami) to beat Herman up. Either way I think Boetsch catches him at some point and hurts him badly. Even if he doesn't finish, which I think is a strong possibility, i think he rolls to a decision. The fight being at LHW is to his advantage imo.

 

[Stunna77]

Torn on Browne/Mitrione. Anyone feel they have a good read on either guy or this fight in general? Seems pretty split itt and most "experts" or whatever you want to call them are picking Mitrione by KO. I mean he has obvious power and is fast for a heavywieght, but everytime he has taken a step up in competition he has gotten beat. Browne has been in there with some of the best in the division right now. Just wish he wouldn't of left Jackson-Wink and went to Glendale, can't imagine he is getting the best training partners there.

 

[Se4n]

Time to start working on my bets for the event. Need to do well or else my January will be a big loss.

 

[EzFlyer]

Torn on Browne/Mitrione. Anyone feel they have a good read on either guy or this fight in general? Seems pretty split itt and most "experts" or whatever you want to call them are picking Mitrione by KO. I mean he has obvious power and is fast for a heavywieght, but everytime he has taken a step up in competition he has gotten beat. Browne has been in there with some of the best in the division right now. Just wish he wouldn't of left Jackson-Wink and went to Glendale, can't imagine he is getting the best training partners there.

i say just don't go nuts either way.

i've seen plenty of people picking mitrione.

i don't think he pays nearly enough. mitrione has good hands for a heavyweight. he could land. but browne's taken good shots from some good guys and stayed in there. browne can win on the feet, too.

and if it hits the ground? with browne on top? the fight is OVER.

browne's the play for me.

i disagree with "experts" all the time, and i do just fine.

 

[Stunna77]

i say just don't go nuts either way.

i've seen plenty of people picking mitrione.

i don't think he pays nearly enough. mitrione has good hands for a heavyweight. he could land. but browne's taken good shots from some good guys and stayed in there. browne can win on the feet, too.

and if it hits the ground? with browne on top? the fight is OVER.

browne's the play for me.

i disagree with "experts" all the time, and i do just fine.

That was pretty much my initial lean too, that Browne would be durable enough to take a shot if he has too and would eventually land something that puts Mitrione down. Or like you said if it goes to the ground, Mitrione has looked lost there and Browne has some nasty elbows. I just get nervous when most of the people who spend a lot more time analyzing fights then I do pick against me haha. From track records though Ill put more weight into what you, sham, JB and some of the other regs in here have to say about fights tho tbh.

 

[Se4n]

Is Browne still with edmund? I can definitely see Meathead pulling an upset if thats the case tbf

 

[EzFlyer]

Is Browne still with edmund? I can definitely see Meathead pulling an upset if thats the case tbf

yea. that & the rousey affiliation have a lot of people concerned for browne.

i get it

i just see this and can't possibly bet mitrione:

 

[twone21]

omg. So Luca Fury reps a 68% on straight picks. But apparently favorites win 68.12% HAHAHAH OMG. That is just too funny.

 

[Se4n]

Why is Felder such a big favorite against Cruinkshank? I think Darron will take this.

 

[The MM Analyst]

Here's my bets for the next few days:

6 units on TJ - I'm surprised it's near even. I think Cruz will have a lot of trouble with his constant feinting and throwing out non-committal punches to bait and gauge Cruz's responses. Cruz reacts in big, committed motions and TJ is throwing out so much static that it's incredibly hard to predict when he's going to commit to an attack and where it's coming from. Also expect TJ's ability to close distance and pressure to give Cruz fits. Cruz is a lot more hittable when he's being pushed backwards and not given room to dart and pivot. Cruz may have a wrestling advantage, but I don't think he's the better positional grappler. I don't see him doing much of significance on the ground, if he can even get it there. He might have better offensive wrestling, but TJ's TDD is superb. Cruz might be better in the clinch, but I don't think he'll be able to control TJ for long there.

1 unit on Alvarez - Not too sure how to feel about this bet. I don't expect Alvarez to win, I'm picking Pettis, but I think this fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest.

3 units on Mitrione - Travis Browne has no idea how to keep himself out of the pocket and he's a terrible pocket boxer. He overextends on his punches all the time. He also has incredibly poor defensive instincts - he doesn't see and react to individual punches thrown, instead he kind of throws up his hands and and jerks his head away, retreating in a straight line as a universal defense. Mitrione is a decent puncher in the pocket, and he can cover distance fast and has decent counter instincts. I see him knocking Browne out either as he recovers from throwing himself off-balance, or just by blitzing him. Movement-y, straight kicking, outfighter Browne is best Browne. This new incarnation is not a good striker.

2 units on Mitrione/Browne under 1.5 - See above.

2 Units on Amber Leibrock over Megan Anderson - Anderson just straight up doesn't have the slightest clue what she's doing on the feet. Leibrock has power, she's aggressive, she can throw punches, and cover distance. Kept it low because I don't know how Amber is on the ground.

3 units on parlay of Felder/Boetsch/Latifi - Standard favorites parlay, very confident about Boetsch and Latifi, bit less on Felder because he can be unpredictable but I still don't see Cruickshank beating him.

 

[HeyBoone]

omg. So Luca Fury reps a 68% on straight picks. But apparently favorites win 68.12% HAHAHAH OMG. That is just too funny.

What's funny about that? Is it because Luca can't get a higher percentage of picks than simply just going with the favourite each time? Most people typically don't do much better than 70 at straight picks. I would gladly take a 68% pick rate if it's an equal mix of favourites and underdogs. Sorry if I missed your point on this one.

 

[OneWarrior1]

I've been strongly considering a play with Cruick. Felder is extremely overrated and Cruick has been using a wrestling gameplan lately.

I have af lier on O'Connel ko/tko @ 6.50

 

[Sham5916910]

man i've been behind a lot of the same fighters as you recently (i was on condit, larkin and noke as well last week and got fucked), here is no different.

i rewatched trinaldo's last two fights, perfectly content to stand and bang and didn't even shoot for a takedown in either fights. perhaps he was trying to exploit a stylistic weakness in norman parke's standup but i think he's just got more confident in his hands, which makes me think he might do the same shit against pearson.

unless pearson gets dry humped to death, he still has much better standup than trinaldo even with improvements (and maybe some special sauce flowing through his veins). trinaldo also tends to fade late in fights which doesn't bode well for him against such a precise puncher as pearson.

personally i think people picking trinaldo are putting too much emphasis on his recent surge rather than the way the styles match up, which is why i'm on pearson.

I didnt bet the Condit fight but defo felt i got fucked over in Noke and Larkin fights. Not as bad as when Sanchez got the decision over Ross still my angriest loss by a mile!

But anyhow yep agree with all you have said glad to see Chemmy on side too.