UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

Live dogs IMO:

  1. Anthony Smith (not really a dog but i think he's much more skilled than Clark -- this is a make or break fight for Smith. I think he'll put Clark away. If he gets + odds i'll be putting money on him)
  2. Bill Algeo -- The alpha ginger gasses after 8-9 minutes and Algeo should be good enough to grind out a victory here by being more technical on the outside and positional grappling with clinch work against the cage and top side wrestling
I want to tape Sato/Baeza more to see if the line is correct. I have a feeling Baeza should be closer to -200 than -170 here
 
damn my book still has the Fiziev fight up for this card

Blaydes
Baeza
Fiziev

+350

might still lock that in
 
You know what, I'm gonna bet Ostovich.
Her grappling isn't actually that terrible and she was beating Paige before she gor somehow caught in a lucky armbar.
Mazany sucks even more IMO.
And always picking the dog in WMMA has been profitable for me lately.


I like Smith also. It's a shame I missed him at -105, now he is a -130... Gonna play a bit on him now, and hope his odds go up in the upcoming days.

I wanted to tape Fiziev-Moicano but the fight has been removed.

Don't see any other good spots here...
 
Hard to be assed taping such a crappy card after really going in deep with it last week... Also having just made a small fortune on xrp isn't helping my motivation.
 
Bill Algeo -- The alpha ginger gasses after 8-9 minutes and Algeo should be good enough to grind out a victory here by being more technical on the outside and positional grappling with clinch work against the cage and top side wrestling

Definitely agree with Algeo. He's tough to put away and has really only lost to good fighters in and out of the UFC. I don't think he's being respected by the odds here.
 
Thoughts on Malcolm Gordon here? That line feels awfully wide for a Chinese fighter who only beat a low tier bw and got dominated by Smolka
 
Thoughts on Malcolm Gordon here? That line feels awfully wide for a Chinese fighter who only beat a low tier bw and got dominated by Smolka

Taped this one today, I think Gordon is 'catch a lucky sub' in a scramble or bust, defensively porous standing, no power, no particularly quick. Both are terrible, and Su has been subbed 4 times, but I don't think Gordan can get it to the mat unless Su decides to take it there, he probably just gets stuck on the outside and jabbed up and leg kicked, pass for me, maybe a tiny sprinkle on Gordan sub if the line is tasty and you feel the fluke.

Otherwise I think Su has him beat everywhere, but Su's line is dead, wouldn't be against using him as a parley leg
 
Bill Algeo -- The alpha ginger gasses after 8-9 minutes and Algeo should be good enough to grind out a victory here by being more technical on the outside and positional grappling with clinch work against the cage and top side wrestling

I don’t disagree with that, but my concern for Algeo is that even if your Carlyle assessment is 100% right and he gasses out after 8-9 minutes, he may already be about to go up 20-18 on the scorecards, meaning Algeo could need a late finish or 10-8 round 3 just to manage a draw. This fight screams live bet to me if you are liking the Algeo side.

Also, keep it mind that Billy Q is a relentless, output-based fighter and he basically coin-flipped that decision over Spike this year.
 
Anyone else leaning Amir Albazi? He seems to have more power, speed, 2" reach, younger and more creative/varied striking to me.
 
Hard to be assed taping such a crappy card after really going in deep with it last week... Also having just made a small fortune on xrp isn't helping my motivation.

jesus thanks for this reminders. I bought a ton of alt coin 2 years ago and never checked them this year.

Edit: I bought on GDAX and now i have no idea how to check it
 
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Guys, I love betting on awful WMMA as much as anyone, and have sometimes found goldmines, but I'll pass on Ostovich vs. Mazany.

In terms of skills, Ostovich is superior. She has a little wrestling and topgame, can throw a competent jab, and can kick a tiny bit. That's better than Mazany, who is a complete embarrassment at every aspect of fighting.

On the flipside, Ostovich has a charming habit of flat-out quitting in fights when they get hard, which was evident against de la Rosa and Paige van Zant. She is also dead meat off her back and has a suspect chin. She is also tiny at 125 and will give up a lot of size to Mazany, coming down from 135.

However, Mazany ALSO quits in fights as soon as she takes even one remotely hard shot, as both the Chiasson and Avila fights attest to. Hell, if you slow the sequence down, Mazany is turning her back and going to curl up in the fetal position against Avila before even being cleanly hit a single time!

Neither of these girls is remotely serious or interested in being a fighter, and are merely doing it for a paycheck. Which one wins? Damned if I know.

I would take a blind stab on whoever the dog is at +200 or more, but I'm presently only being offered +125 on Ostovich.

Amazingly, Ashlee Evans-Smith, who stole medical supplies during the pandemic, and Norma Dumont are the significantly higher-level WMMA match.
 
Am I the only one who thinks Pearce and Kamaka is close to a pickem? Take away his performance against Lauzon, guy can bang. Will be a high volume fight.
 
I was curious myself about the Gordon/Mudaerji fight. Gordon won't have a ton to offer but maybe athleticism alone may be enough to get this fight to the ground and his eventual PTV?
 
Am I the only one who thinks Pearce and Kamaka is close to a pickem? Take away his performance against Lauzon, guy can bang. Will be a high volume fight.
That performance vs lauzon was flat out embarrassing. Kamaka seems like the much more fluid striker and also defensively much more sound. Another pass for me with these wide odds.
 
Have to play Lewis here at these numbers. Blaydes trying to lay and pray for 5 rounds sounds like a recipe for Lewis to get him out of there late

may be a good live bet opportunity
 
Have to play Lewis here at these numbers. Blaydes trying to lay and pray for 5 rounds sounds like a recipe for Lewis to get him out of there late

may be a good live bet opportunity

I agree with you. Lewis has been looking really good lately and I know he can KO anyone. Blades might get slept here and it wouldn't shock me at all. Lewis is primed to land one of these flying knees he keeps throwing too.
 
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Am I the only one who thinks Pearce and Kamaka is close to a pickem? Take away his performance against Lauzon, guy can bang. Will be a high volume fight.
Both guys have very little care for defense and kamaka is faster and a bit more technically sound with wrestling in his back pocket. Juice lords inflate favorites these days but I’m not sure if Pearce is worth a play
 
I agree with you. Lewis has been looking really good lately and I know he can KO anyone. Blades might get slept here and it wouldn't shock me at all. Lewis is primed to land one of these flying knees he keeps throwing.

If i remember correctly blaydes gassed pretty badly by rd 3 vs volkov. Beast still carries his power late into fights. He could also end up reversing blaydes on the ground and he has some of the most vicious gnp in all of mma
 
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