UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

[rille31]

Can someone tell me why the odds between Casey O Neil and Shana Dobson is narrowing? Not much tape on O' Neil, but she has a clear PTV using her grappling. Seems like a gift, but is it just too good to be true?

Just watched one fight so far but Casey did end up on the bottom constantly, she did reverse position against the smaller judoka but her wrestling didnt look to good.
If its a standing fight Dobson can crack.

 

[Broe.]

O neill seems to be a lot tougher and more persistent than Dobson who I think is a bit of a flake.

 

[bendoman]

Has Daukaus faced a competent grappler before?

 

[BigSteve]

Has Daukaus faced a competent grappler before?

in his last fight

 

[BigSteve]

loving the discussion on here so far.

At the moment I only have 2u on Dobson before odds narrowed. Taping Oneil I was thinking damn I got to put another unit even at these odds on Dobson. Massive athletisim and power edge for Dobson. Oneil is super hittable, all she throws is arm punches, mostly a 1-2. On the way to the clinch shes is getting her head rocked back in every fight lol. Someone like Dobson can absolutely crack her. She has a mean overhand right for a female, and a nice jab.

After taping Dobson, I got reminded how dog shit her TD is lol. Wrestle fucked by Mazo, taken down with ease by a gasssed Agapova. She also gets backed up easy to the cage. Oneils wrestling is trash but unless Dobson has made insane improvements, it should be enough to get her down still. I still think Dobson is the play, maybe at better odds than what they are at now. Oneil is aggresive but she is also super green. Her getting the takedown and Dobsons back dosent mean an instant finish. 23 years old, making a debut in the UFC and flying from accross the world, no way you can play her as a fav.

 

[longway]

Just watched one fight so far but Casey did end up on the bottom constantly, she did reverse position against the smaller judoka but her wrestling didnt look to good.
If its a standing fight Dobson can crack.

Must be her fight with Amira. She did look pretty green in that fight, but in her last fight, she showed a lot of improvement since then. Dobson is a KO or bust, I can see her being submitted pretty quickly. The only reason Dobson won her last fight was bc Agapova was totally gassed. I'm just not seeing a reliable PTV for Dobson. O'Neil has ok TDs, and Dobson has never stuffed a single TD in the UFC.

What am I missing? I think the original line was generous to Dobson, or at least about right, so am surprised.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Does anyone know if Drako is a black belt or his belt color?

 

[bendoman]

Leans so far :
Blaydes KO/TKO or DEC seems like a lock
Daukaus KO/TKO maybe hedged with Oleinieik SUB
Aspinall KO/TKO
Hawes ML

Thoughts?

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Id encourage everyone to remember how perfectly content blaydes is to lay and pray for a 5 round decision. He doesn’t have the cardio to constantly look for finishes. Beast is hard to put away as well

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

loving the discussion on here so far.

At the moment I only have 2u on Dobson before odds narrowed. Taping Oneil I was thinking damn I got to put another unit even at these odds on Dobson. Massive athletisim and power edge for Dobson. Oneil is super hittable, all she throws is arm punches, mostly a 1-2. On the way to the clinch shes is getting her head rocked back in every fight lol. Someone like Dobson can absolutely crack her. She has a mean overhand right for a female, and a nice jab.

After taping Dobson, I got reminded how dog shit her TD is lol. Wrestle fucked by Mazo, taken down with ease by a gasssed Agapova. She also gets backed up easy to the cage. Oneils wrestling is trash but unless Dobson has made insane improvements, it should be enough to get her down still. I still think Dobson is the play, maybe at better odds than what they are at now. Oneil is aggresive but she is also super green. Her getting the takedown and Dobsons back dosent mean an instant finish. 23 years old, making a debut in the UFC and flying from accross the world, no way you can play her as a fav.

I would have made the same play on Dobson at those odds, 2 units. She should probably be the favorite here, regardless of how bad she is.

O’Neil just turned pro not even 2 years ago and has fought a bunch of cans. Her standup is extremely basic and predictable. Dobson might kill her with an overhand counter to the jab.

that being said, on the ground Casey looks competent. She gets a little high on the back but she has pretty decent gnp. Her wrestling isn’t very good but she has enough to get Dobson on the ground where she will likely be able to keep her for extended periods of time. A strong gust of wind would likely put Dobson on her back

Maybe arb down to a unit here. Shana is hard to trust. O’Neil isn’t going to gas beating her up like agapova did either

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I’m taping this event. After bombing 2 weeks ago and the vierra blunder bet last weekend I’m looking to get back on another streak here. Got lazy on tape and was busy with a bunch of stuff these pat two weeks.

No more giving away money

this card is pretty mediocre. At first glance I like daukaus ko, aspenall ko, maybe yana, imamov

 

[Stat_Collector]

Drako is purple- but looking for his fight with tony gravely now/.checking fight pass buts its not listed on searches with his name//

 

[Sono07]

Drako is purple- but looking for his fight with tony gravely now/.

Where did you find that? I was looking it up myself. I know his last opponent Martinez was a purple belt but I'd say Drako is less experienced based off that fight. He showed knowledgeable transitions but made alot of rookie mistakes and nearly got subbed for it.

When he first gets Martinez down he does a poor job of covering his hips, leaving way too much space. When he finally got into guard he had pretty poor posture/control.

Drako seemed slow to recognize the submission threat until his corner warned him of the arm trap. I'm not going to say he got lucky but I doubt that Martinez fight would play out the same way twice. In his post fight interview he admits to only committing to the triangle because his corner talked him through it.

 

[longway]

Drako is purple- but looking for his fight with tony gravely now/.checking fight pass buts its not listed on searches with his name//

You can watch it here. Fight starts around 2:04

https://video.tudou.com/v/XNDA2NDExNDA4NA==.html?spm=a2h0k.8191414.0.0&from=s1.8-1-1.2

Where did you find that? I was looking it up myself. I know his last opponent Martinez was a purple belt but I'd say Drako is less experienced based off that fight. He showed knowledgeable transitions but made alot of rookie mistakes and nearly got subbed for it.

When he first gets Martinez down he does a poor job of covering his hips, leaving way too much space. When he finally got into guard he had pretty poor posture/control.

Drako seemed slow to recognize the submission threat until his corner warned him of the arm trap. I'm not going to say he got lucky but I doubt that Martinez fight would play out the same way twice. In his post fight interview he admits to only committing to the triangle because his corner talked him through it.

I'm surprised he regards himself as a striker, given his record. But that move from being trapped in an omoplata to getting Martinez into a triangle was sweet. Personally, I think Zahabi is the value side.

 

[WolfgangKennelz]

You can watch it here. Fight starts around 2:04

https://video.tudou.com/v/XNDA2NDExNDA4NA==.html?spm=a2h0k.8191414.0.0&from=s1.8-1-1.2



I'm surprised he regards himself as a striker, given his record. But that move from being trapped in an omoplata to getting Martinez into a triangle was sweet. Personally, I think Zahabi is the value side.

I bet against Drako in contender series fight and lost... I can't get a good read on him. He had boxing matches. And as a boxer myself, I felt and still do feel his boxing is TRASH ... however, I can see how he describes himself a striker. I don't really know. Maybe he keeps improving at a steady rate .. I may pull trigger on zahabi as I think Drako is fadeable. But I don't have a good read on him at all. Pass for me at this point, small lean on zahabi as I don't think Drako is that great at any discipline, grappling subs included

 

[longway]

I bet against Drako in contender series fight and lost... I can't get a good read on him. He had boxing matches. And as a boxer myself, I felt and still do feel his boxing is TRASH ... however, I can see how he describes himself a striker. I don't really know. Maybe he keeps improving at a steady rate .. I may pull trigger on zahabi as I think Drako is fadeable. But I don't have a good read on him at all. Pass for me at this point, small lean on zahabi as I don't think Drako is that great at any discipline, grappling subs included

I'm not going big on Zahabi, just 0.6u. I think there are plenty of better spots on this card. I decided to tail you on Chavez, I hope this one of your better reads. Will play Chavez ITD also.

 

[Sono07]

You can watch it here. Fight starts around 2:04

https://video.tudou.com/v/XNDA2NDExNDA4NA==.html?spm=a2h0k.8191414.0.0&from=s1.8-1-1.2



I'm surprised he regards himself as a striker, given his record. But that move from being trapped in an omoplata to getting Martinez into a triangle was sweet. Personally, I think Zahabi is the value side.

Hard to have faith in either guy honestly. Long layoff for Zahabi, he has bad footwork, awkward low volume striking and blitzes forward with his chin up. Hard to tell if he has gotten any better or worse.

Nothing really special about Drako though. Slick triangle but like Buckley's spinning back kick KO it was probably a one off. I could definitely see Zahabi winning if he fights more like the Ramos fight than the his last one though.

 

[Kazda1]

in his last fight

Don't really recall that guy trying to grapple Daukaus though. He in fact did the complete opposite of what he should've done. Totally could see Daukaus putting the old man away here, but it feels too good to be true for some reason.

 

[BigSteve]

Hard to have faith in either guy honestly. Long layoff for Zahabi, he has bad footwork, awkward low volume striking and blitzes forward with his chin up. Hard to tell if he has gotten any better or worse.

Nothing really special about Drako though. Slick triangle but like Buckley's spinning back kick KO it was probably a one off. I could definitely see Zahabi winning if he fights more like the Ramos fight than the his last one though.

I taped this fight in detail twice now, once for Drakos Contender debut and then for this fight originally. Could not get a read on him for contender as legit every single opponent on the regionals runs in, takes him down with ease and then gets subbed. Even his one loss to Graverly, he kept getting wrestled until he got GNPed in the championship rounds. So im thinking this guy is clearly a jits player, yet everyone keeps forcing the takedown? Don't even know if he can throw a punch. Then on the contender he throws a nice combination, which forces his opponent who was meant to be a thai fighter, to shoot and get triangled.

Upon second taping for this fight, I found out Drako has a boxing background, probably why everyone shoots on him. Zahabi has awesome Jits defence and framing, he is always super composed when in danger. Even against Ramos, from memory I think he was getting onto his back and he striped him off so clean it was like a jits repellant lol. He is obviously very technical. My only problem with Zahabi is his output, and not knowing exactly how good Drakos standup is. Also if Zahabi wrestles, its a clear path as Drako has awful TDD. Lots of unknowns and originally I was ok passing at those odds, but that wide line keeps staring at me.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Spivak-Dec+215
Zahabi+150
Skelly-Emmers- goes to dec-160
Oneil-145
Landwher-105
Wineland+110
Klose-190
Chavez-140
Imamov+105
Aspinall-KO +115
Daukus-170
Rosa-190
Sabatini-Alves dont go to dec-185
Vieria wins by dec-125
Blades-KO+125