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UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sono07, Feb 14, 2021.

  1. rille31 Brown Belt

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    UFC Vegas 19: Blaydes vs. Lewis Weigh-In Results
    Main card

    Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes (259) vs. Derrick Lewis (263)
    Women’s Bantamweight: Ketlen Vieira (138)**** vs. Yana Kunitskaya (135.5)
    Featherweight: Charles Rosa (146) vs. Darrick Minner (146)
    Heavyweight: Aleksei Oleinik (240) vs. Chris Daukaus (234)
    Middleweight: Phil Hawes (185) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (185.5)
    Heavyweight: Andrei Arlovski (249.5) vs. Tom Aspinall (244.5)

    Preliminary card

    Featherweight: Pat Sabatini (145.5) vs. Rafael Alves (157.5)
    Featherweight: Jared Gordon (150)** vs. Danny Chavez (145)
    Lightweight: Drakkar Klose (156) vs. Luis Pena (155.5)
    Bantamweight: Eddie Wineland (135.5) vs. John Castañeda (136)
    Featherweight: Nate Landwehr (146) vs. Julian Erosa (145.5)
    Women’s Flyweight: Shana Dobson (126) vs. Casey O’Neill (125.5)
    Featherweight: Chas Skelly (146) vs. Jamall Emmers (145.5)
    Bantamweight: Aiemann Zahabi (136) vs. Drako Rodriguez (140.5)*
    Heavyweight: Sergey Spivak (245) vs. Jared Vanderaa (265)
     
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  2. Casual Cro Cop White Belt

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    I feel like I'm favoring a lot of the slight favorites on this one:

    Landwehr at -117 seems pretty nice considering Erosa has a history of getting koed. I don't think he would have been able to take the shots Elkins took from Nate.

    Danny Chavez at -144 feels promising especially with Gordan now missing weight

    I like fading Pena with Drakkar at -177

    Even Charles Rosa at -190 as I'm pretty confident he will get the sub here.

    I was favoring Drako as well but I know he just missed weight also. Anybody have a different feel on this one as a result of the weight issue?

    Aside from the favorites I like Wineland and Nassourdine at even money.

    For props I am looking at Blaydes ITD at -165, Vieira by decision at -121. Also the younger HW KO lines obviously.

    I know it's late in the game but anyone got any feedback on these lines? Probably not going to play them all so I'm trying to figure the strongest lines here.
     
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  3. Hellowhosthat Gold Belt

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    I hit Imavov, he drowned Williams and I like Hawes to gas and I think he makes a good hammer but not such a good nail
     
  4. Casual Cro Cop White Belt

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    100% agree. Imavov is one of my more confident picks here.
     
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  5. orgazmo Purple Belt

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    I feel like Wineland is a very strange fighter, he just seems so limited. I feel like it is an understatement to call him one dimensional because he doesn't even throw kicks. He should in theory be easy to game plan for, he's only going to throw punches. Although, I can't remember seeing his opponent fight ever, so I have no idea what he can handle, or even what he is good at.
     
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  6. Hellowhosthat Gold Belt

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    I don't think Castaneda is good at all but Wineland has a shit load of miles on him and was never really reliable anyway.
     
  7. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    I was expecting Spivak to look kinda small next to Vanderaa but that's not the case. If Jared can't play big brother I think he gets lit up on the feet.

    This interview is a good boost of confidence as well. Jared caught covid in December and spent the end of the year eating junk food and drinking rum. No idea why his nails are painted.

     
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  8. longway Purple Belt

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    https://www.mmafighting.com/platfor...&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

    Alves says he missed weight bc he ate some bad fish that caused food poisoning, so was forced to hydrate. Apparently walks around at 195! Will now move to LW going forward.
     
  9. Casual Cro Cop White Belt

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    Looking at Charles Rosa ITD at +120. I favor him over Minner and I doubt this makes it to decision. The plus money seems like solid value.
     
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  10. Initial lean on this main event was Blaydes ITD.

    I usually don't read much into interviews, but Lewis saying that he's motivated because it's the last fight on his contract, actually makes this one a little more interesting.

    If Lewis can survive some GnP early, and make Curtis work like Volkov did, it could turn into a SLOPPY fight in rounds 3/4/5. As we've seen, Blaydes is perfectly content winning a boring decision.

    Volkov has better cardio than both of them, I may just keep the plays I have right now, and throw a little on Lewis @ +385 because he's a hero in Houston.

    Currently have an O'Neil/Landwehr/Aspinall KO parlay that pays +590, 100 to win 590.

    Honestly that may be it for me for this event. If that hits, toss 100 on Lewis for the hell of it, and call it a night.
     
  11. WolfgangKennelz Yellow Belt

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    I don't like how I have a lot of money locked in on Danny Chavez back when he was a dog too... and now Gordon comes in 4 pounds heavy looking in best shape of his career like he's taking the advantage for price of his purse. It's fukn illegal. Chavez would've KOd his dehydrated ass tmro night. Now I got large bet against a cheating fighter with an unnecessary advantage... I also have some money on zahabi. At least I won't add now
     
  12. The Eagle Purple Belt

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    Pena at +150 is a steal
     
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  13. Broe. Brown Belt

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    Yeah exactly. I switched to gordon now. Cheating motherfucker but his odds arw still good
     
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  14. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    Yeah I think Gordon came in heavy to wrestlefat Chavez, I might just pass on Danny's ML and play the over.
     
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  15. Bestonian Can't be assed with grammar

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    Anyone think value in Oleinik vs Daukas over 1.5 rounds at +160?

    Oleinik undersized, old and gasses in the first round. Daukas, if he has any game planning, plays it smart and avoids bumrushing in the first round to avoid getting taken to the floor and getting meme-subed.

    //smashing Blaydes ITD, no way Lewis has cardio to survive 5 grounds on the floor.
     
  16. Spath Black Belt

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    Oleynik weighed in at 240 while Daukaus came in at 234. So Oleynik isn’t undersized in this one.

    Oleynik has been pretty fast starter and went full steam, balls to the wall against Overeem for example. No wonder he gassed in the first and Overeem was able to shell up before finishing him.

    I guess Oleynik will look to take this to the ground early, that’s no surprise or a secret of any kind, but he has shown some heavy hands in his fights and he’s willing to throw. So if Daukaus keeps the distance and avoids the takedowns / haymakers then sure, it could go over 1,5 rounds.

    However, I have little faith in Daukaus showing up and executing that kind of gameplan without a hitch. He needs to do that or he needs to catch the Ol’ Boa Constrictor with something. Otherwise Oleynik will do what he does. I wouldn’t put money on the over 1,5.

    I agree with Blaydes ITD (TKO, he never goes for subs). I’d say round 3/4.
     
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  17. Sono07 Brown Belt

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    Yana DEC at +285 or her +3 1/2 points at -150 might be worth something. I thought Ketlen looked like crap weighing in, that and no way am I paying juice on anything named Vieria after last week.

    Also if Daukaus is smart he'll open up with a jump knee followed by a cross. At least it worked for Lewis and Walt Harris.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2021
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  18. theTKDguy Red Belt

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    I agree with most of these reads but not confident at all. I feel it's a tough card, a lot of young, unreliable dudes. i only have a flyer on blaydes by sub lmao. Gotta make my mind up fast or end up just livebetting.
     
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  19. OuterDrake Orange Belt

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    I agree I'm looking at these fights right now, his size and reach, and Drakkar terrible head movement and defense, pena is a good coin flip fight.
     
  20. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I just realized they have 8 fights scheduled for the 3 hour prelims. They are really going to be going quickly back to back.
     
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