2c:
Ronson/Garcia; I think Ronson is just the better fighter. I have tried fading Garcia a lot, his gas tank is atrocious and he just throws bombs and shells up. His wrestling is decent il give him that but his control is awful. Ronson is well-rounded and experienced. He has good TDD and good get-ups when taken down. He is a bit old and coming off a suspension, but I can't treat him as washed until I see him washed in the cage. His boxing is a lot cleaner and he has decent power. He works the body well, he cracked Shulte with a liver shot in the first and visibly hurt him. Garcia is always open to body shots due to the high guard which will impact his cardio even more, Gruetz took advantage of that. Garcia is gritty and he has no quit in him so he can make this a scrap, but I will have to side with an overall better fighter at dog odds.
Klose/Jenkins: Klose has so many advantages here, wrestling, athletism, cardio. Some of his UFC wins have aged beautifully and he is taking a massive step down here. Jenkins has been ground out in the past and even by Zhu in the UFC. His only way to win is a meme KO, and he has a few of those. I have played Klose 3/DEC here for plus money, Jenkins usually gets finished late in the third. It is a bit risky with how many holes Jankins has but he is tough, and the last time Klose fought someone similar ( Devin Powell) he made it to DEC. He mostly clinches so if he goes down that path should be relatively safe. I have a lil bit on the O1.5 as well.
Lina/Panie: WMMA, thought I would find some value but Lina is so bad I'm surprised she has any wins in the UFC. Her athletism is horrendous, and she's not even that good at her game since McMan and Yana dominated her with it. This was 2 years ago before her layoff, the kid and turning 40. Pass for me.
Loosa/Lazzez: Pass fight for me. Loosa should be able to get takedowns over Lazzez, who hasn't done anything to deserve -200. Lazzez seems more well-rounded and will probably have more volume. He also gets up to his feet quickly. I will look to potentially live bet him after the first, I don't think Loosas cardio will be amazing fighting a week ago and having two weight cuts.
T.J/Sabatini: TJ getting a bit disrespected in the line here I feel. He is the more athletic fighter with better striking and potentially wrestling. Sabatini is relentless with his takedowns but slows down a bit late. Once he gets the fight down his Jits and top pressure is elite. On the bottom, he hunts for the legs which wrestlers absolutely hate. I think Pat still wins because it's going to be hard for TJ to avoid the grappling and clinch for all three, but it can be a bit sweaty if TJ stuffs a few.
Wu/Silva: Big mismatch. Wu is actually not good at anything, and Silva has good standup, cracks hard, and has dangerous jits off her back. Silva has top 20 potential in my opinion and Wu can barley beat the bottom of the barrel in the UFC. Silva by finish if you are feeling it is plus money. She is very reliable to keep pressuring for all 3.
Fialho/Baeza: I like Fialho as a dog, just not sure how much I want on it considering Baeza has those takedowns he will occasionally go for and a solid calf kick against a boxer. Fialho also has bad cardio but so does Baeza. Fialho pressures forward and looks to land bombs, something Baeza is not good at dealing with. I think Perreira is a much better fighter and more durable than Baeza, and Fialho gave him a decent fight on short notice. Maybe I just hit Fialho round 1 KO as he has never won a DEC, but I can see a 3-round war where either guy can edge it out.
Caio/Gadzhi: Dog or pass for me. Caio has no footage off his back on the internet, and Gadzhi pretty much wants the takedown for 3 rounds. He has some subs and he likes going for the crucifix, but if you look at his competition it's very low and padded. Caio is a black belt in judo and jits, and has decent takedowns of his own. Again it's hard to know how he will fare off his back but he has a massive speed and striking advantage on the feet, I think he will be striking and moving on Gadzhi with ease. His power is also underrated, he had a bunch of finishes early and then reminded everyone that he can crack in his last contender fight. Hard for me to back anyone here with those questions I have, but the lean is Caio.
Luque/Belal: Tough fight, I feel like Luque has Belals number. He is too technical, Belal is too hittable and not dangerous enough. If it goes the whole 5 rounds then I can for sure see Belal winning a grinding decision. Belal has good cardio and is tough but he gets cracked by a lot of fighters. Luque breathes hard in a lot of his fights, but in the same fights he is finishing fighters late, his technique and power are always dangerous. His output is something that gets overlooked, he never stops throwing. I don't know how I feel about this line due to it being a 5 rounder. Belal 4,5, DEC is a nice option, I will eat my shoe if he finishes Luque within 3 rounds. I might look to live bet or play some finish props small for fun.