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Wouldn't touch Mounir at current odds tbh.
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad 2
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Me neither. I have it -150/130. Almost -200 is insane.
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2c:
Ronson/Garcia; I think Ronson is just the better fighter. I have tried fading Garcia a lot, his gas tank is atrocious and he just throws bombs and shells up. His wrestling is decent il give him that but his control is awful. Ronson is well-rounded and experienced. He has good TDD and good get-ups when taken down. He is a bit old and coming off a suspension, but I can't treat him as washed until I see him washed in the cage. His boxing is a lot cleaner and he has decent power. He works the body well, he cracked Shulte with a liver shot in the first and visibly hurt him. Garcia is always open to body shots due to the high guard which will impact his cardio even more, Gruetz took advantage of that. Garcia is gritty and he has no quit in him so he can make this a scrap, but I will have to side with an overall better fighter at dog odds.
Klose/Jenkins: Klose has so many advantages here, wrestling, athletism, cardio. Some of his UFC wins have aged beautifully and he is taking a massive step down here. Jenkins has been ground out in the past and even by Zhu in the UFC. His only way to win is a meme KO, and he has a few of those. I have played Klose 3/DEC here for plus money, Jenkins usually gets finished late in the third. It is a bit risky with how many holes Jankins has but he is tough, and the last time Klose fought someone similar ( Devin Powell) he made it to DEC. He mostly clinches so if he goes down that path should be relatively safe. I have a lil bit on the O1.5 as well.
Lina/Panie: WMMA, thought I would find some value but Lina is so bad I'm surprised she has any wins in the UFC. Her athletism is horrendous, and she's not even that good at her game since McMan and Yana dominated her with it. This was 2 years ago before her layoff, the kid and turning 40. Pass for me.
Loosa/Lazzez: Pass fight for me. Loosa should be able to get takedowns over Lazzez, who hasn't done anything to deserve -200. Lazzez seems more well-rounded and will probably have more volume. He also gets up to his feet quickly. I will look to potentially live bet him after the first, I don't think Loosas cardio will be amazing fighting a week ago and having two weight cuts.
T.J/Sabatini: TJ getting a bit disrespected in the line here I feel. He is the more athletic fighter with better striking and potentially wrestling. Sabatini is relentless with his takedowns but slows down a bit late. Once he gets the fight down his Jits and top pressure is elite. On the bottom, he hunts for the legs which wrestlers absolutely hate. I think Pat still wins because it's going to be hard for TJ to avoid the grappling and clinch for all three, but it can be a bit sweaty if TJ stuffs a few.
Wu/Silva: Big mismatch. Wu is actually not good at anything, and Silva has good standup, cracks hard, and has dangerous jits off her back. Silva has top 20 potential in my opinion and Wu can barley beat the bottom of the barrel in the UFC. Silva by finish if you are feeling it is plus money. She is very reliable to keep pressuring for all 3.
Fialho/Baeza: I like Fialho as a dog, just not sure how much I want on it considering Baeza has those takedowns he will occasionally go for and a solid calf kick against a boxer. Fialho also has bad cardio but so does Baeza. Fialho pressures forward and looks to land bombs, something Baeza is not good at dealing with. I think Perreira is a much better fighter and more durable than Baeza, and Fialho gave him a decent fight on short notice. Maybe I just hit Fialho round 1 KO as he has never won a DEC, but I can see a 3-round war where either guy can edge it out.
Caio/Gadzhi: Dog or pass for me. Caio has no footage off his back on the internet, and Gadzhi pretty much wants the takedown for 3 rounds. He has some subs and he likes going for the crucifix, but if you look at his competition it's very low and padded. Caio is a black belt in judo and jits, and has decent takedowns of his own. Again it's hard to know how he will fare off his back but he has a massive speed and striking advantage on the feet, I think he will be striking and moving on Gadzhi with ease. His power is also underrated, he had a bunch of finishes early and then reminded everyone that he can crack in his last contender fight. Hard for me to back anyone here with those questions I have, but the lean is Caio.
Luque/Belal: Tough fight, I feel like Luque has Belals number. He is too technical, Belal is too hittable and not dangerous enough. If it goes the whole 5 rounds then I can for sure see Belal winning a grinding decision. Belal has good cardio and is tough but he gets cracked by a lot of fighters. Luque breathes hard in a lot of his fights, but in the same fights he is finishing fighters late, his technique and power are always dangerous. His output is something that gets overlooked, he never stops throwing. I don't know how I feel about this line due to it being a 5 rounder. Belal 4,5, DEC is a nice option, I will eat my shoe if he finishes Luque within 3 rounds. I might look to live bet or play some finish props small for fun.
Ronson/Garcia; I think Ronson is just the better fighter. I have tried fading Garcia a lot, his gas tank is atrocious and he just throws bombs and shells up. His wrestling is decent il give him that but his control is awful. Ronson is well-rounded and experienced. He has good TDD and good get-ups when taken down. He is a bit old and coming off a suspension, but I can't treat him as washed until I see him washed in the cage. His boxing is a lot cleaner and he has decent power. He works the body well, he cracked Shulte with a liver shot in the first and visibly hurt him. Garcia is always open to body shots due to the high guard which will impact his cardio even more, Gruetz took advantage of that. Garcia is gritty and he has no quit in him so he can make this a scrap, but I will have to side with an overall better fighter at dog odds.
Klose/Jenkins: Klose has so many advantages here, wrestling, athletism, cardio. Some of his UFC wins have aged beautifully and he is taking a massive step down here. Jenkins has been ground out in the past and even by Zhu in the UFC. His only way to win is a meme KO, and he has a few of those. I have played Klose 3/DEC here for plus money, Jenkins usually gets finished late in the third. It is a bit risky with how many holes Jankins has but he is tough, and the last time Klose fought someone similar ( Devin Powell) he made it to DEC. He mostly clinches so if he goes down that path should be relatively safe. I have a lil bit on the O1.5 as well.
Lina/Panie: WMMA, thought I would find some value but Lina is so bad I'm surprised she has any wins in the UFC. Her athletism is horrendous, and she's not even that good at her game since McMan and Yana dominated her with it. This was 2 years ago before her layoff, the kid and turning 40. Pass for me.
Loosa/Lazzez: Pass fight for me. Loosa should be able to get takedowns over Lazzez, who hasn't done anything to deserve -200. Lazzez seems more well-rounded and will probably have more volume. He also gets up to his feet quickly. I will look to potentially live bet him after the first, I don't think Loosas cardio will be amazing fighting a week ago and having two weight cuts.
T.J/Sabatini: TJ getting a bit disrespected in the line here I feel. He is the more athletic fighter with better striking and potentially wrestling. Sabatini is relentless with his takedowns but slows down a bit late. Once he gets the fight down his Jits and top pressure is elite. On the bottom, he hunts for the legs which wrestlers absolutely hate. I think Pat still wins because it's going to be hard for TJ to avoid the grappling and clinch for all three, but it can be a bit sweaty if TJ stuffs a few.
Wu/Silva: Big mismatch. Wu is actually not good at anything, and Silva has good standup, cracks hard, and has dangerous jits off her back. Silva has top 20 potential in my opinion and Wu can barley beat the bottom of the barrel in the UFC. Silva by finish if you are feeling it is plus money. She is very reliable to keep pressuring for all 3.
Fialho/Baeza: I like Fialho as a dog, just not sure how much I want on it considering Baeza has those takedowns he will occasionally go for and a solid calf kick against a boxer. Fialho also has bad cardio but so does Baeza. Fialho pressures forward and looks to land bombs, something Baeza is not good at dealing with. I think Perreira is a much better fighter and more durable than Baeza, and Fialho gave him a decent fight on short notice. Maybe I just hit Fialho round 1 KO as he has never won a DEC, but I can see a 3-round war where either guy can edge it out.
Caio/Gadzhi: Dog or pass for me. Caio has no footage off his back on the internet, and Gadzhi pretty much wants the takedown for 3 rounds. He has some subs and he likes going for the crucifix, but if you look at his competition it's very low and padded. Caio is a black belt in judo and jits, and has decent takedowns of his own. Again it's hard to know how he will fare off his back but he has a massive speed and striking advantage on the feet, I think he will be striking and moving on Gadzhi with ease. His power is also underrated, he had a bunch of finishes early and then reminded everyone that he can crack in his last contender fight. Hard for me to back anyone here with those questions I have, but the lean is Caio.
Luque/Belal: Tough fight, I feel like Luque has Belals number. He is too technical, Belal is too hittable and not dangerous enough. If it goes the whole 5 rounds then I can for sure see Belal winning a grinding decision. Belal has good cardio and is tough but he gets cracked by a lot of fighters. Luque breathes hard in a lot of his fights, but in the same fights he is finishing fighters late, his technique and power are always dangerous. His output is something that gets overlooked, he never stops throwing. I don't know how I feel about this line due to it being a 5 rounder. Belal 4,5, DEC is a nice option, I will eat my shoe if he finishes Luque within 3 rounds. I might look to live bet or play some finish props small for fun.
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i think its close. but i like clark because he has a better wrestling background but william has better hands. with that being said i think Clark wins the clinch war. both guys will gas early. i see this as a low activity fight two guys pressing against the cage the entire time.
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BOL had Luque by sub at +350 and I've been trying to hit it for a day and it kept saying "This market is currently unavailable". I wrote them this AM with a screenshot of my failed bet and asked if they could fix it. They didn't respond and lowered it to +300.
With how much work I do on their lines that's pretty dirty. I moved the U4.5 in the main event from -120 to -135 yesterday afternoon, and it stuck so I was obviously right and saved them some money. Pretty disappointing from the out I use the most.
With how much work I do on their lines that's pretty dirty. I moved the U4.5 in the main event from -120 to -135 yesterday afternoon, and it stuck so I was obviously right and saved them some money. Pretty disappointing from the out I use the most.
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They are nickle and diming me on credit cards fees right now, telling me what I’m seeing is foreign currency conversion fees which is total crap because I get a separate charge for the fees
been with them for at least 6-7 years
I told them I’ll pull my money and take it elsewhere if they want to be Cocksuckers about a few hundred bucks
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I'm wondering if they're getting smashed on crypto or something because it hasn't been like this before. I also was limited down from the normal $250 on a prop bet to $208 yesterday. Like the extra $42 would hurt them?
Till now they've always been fair and stuck to pretty reasonable limits. In exchange I put 7-figures through each year and I'll hit their lines multiple times, giving them a chance to adjust in between. It's how a bookmaker/bettor relationship should work. Maybe they hired someone new but I don't like it at all. It feels like something changed.
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I had some weird live betting last weekend with limits during the volk fight. I was about to crush them on that volk itd and fdgtd
limits went all the way down to .50 cents
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I should clarify. They have played games on me with live betting before, I called them out on it, and I almost never use it. I kind of expect that though and think it's different from messing with numbers that are hung there for everyone to see.
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Yea I watched them hang lines out unchanged for days
I’ll try to bet a few units on it and the line magically goes up
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i would not touch neither, that is like a wild west gun draw competition, first one to connect wins.
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I think Klose retires after this fight. Either that push really messed him up or his heart just isn't in it. Also, I'm taking the other side small because this is the fight game and if you're checked out mentally anything can happen.
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Watch this boi gas out within 2 minutes
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https://www.mmamania.com/2022/4/14/...-stephens-shove-ufc-apathy-they-dont-care-mma
I think it's absolutely disgusting how the mma fanbase has acted about Klose probably being permantently injured from an unprovoked and unexpected attack from Stephens, whose already had a history of out-of-octagon violence. Klose really didn't show any out of the ordinary body language or energy during the weigh-ins. He was the victim of assault and people have the audacity of ridiculing him for it. And the UFC brass is filthy as fuck as well, they ended up paying Klose his show money, but only after them having to negotiate about it. No punishment from the UFC for Stephens either. For the record, that shove says very little about how the actual fight would have gone, anyone, no matter how tough or durable can get injured from something like this.
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Agreed, the UFC didn't handle that right. I think you shouldn't be allowed to fight if you touch the other fighter. Just make it a rule.
To be clear, I'm not saying his heart isn't in it from not fighting Stephens. I'm talking about him talking about surgery and retirement in that same article. He had a while off before that fight and to me he's either retired in his mind already or the shove screwed up something really bad in his spine.
I know it's not "fighter like" but Klose should've sued Stephen's. Who knows what that push is gonna cost him $ wise and overall health.
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Can't recall him ever fighting at that weight, maybe in a regional show years ago.
Got money on 251lbs Knight against puny 228lbs Clark.
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I don't mind that angle. Clark reacts poorly to being hit and I think he may give knight enough time to clip him
