UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green

[Oblivian]

I like a lot O1.5 Tsarukyan x Alvarez. Both durable, Tsarukyan is not crazy to stop in front Alvarez jabs and counters, hes stick and move plan maybe grind out or looking for takedowns early and top control.

Man, I hammered Alvarez/Moises ITD last time at + odds. I also hit it versus Yak and Duffy. Alvarez has only been to decision once 21 fights. I think he's realized his strength is that he needs to go for a finish. I know Tsarukyan is a decision machine, but Alvarez would be smart to not let him fight that style - win or lose. Because bottom line is that if it goes to decision, it's not the fight Alvarez wants. I could definitely see this finishing early.

 

[lefontes]

Man, I hammered Alvarez/Moises ITD last time at + odds. I also hit it versus Yak and Duffy. Alvarez has only been to decision once 21 fights. I think he's realized his strength is that he needs to go for a finish. I know Tsarukyan is a decision machine, but Alvarez would be smart to not let him fight that style - win or lose. Because bottom line is that if it goes to decision, it's not the fight Alvarez wants. I could definitely see this finishing early.

Alvarez have only one decision but 90% against cans. Against good Damir and imo Arman is not easy to finish. Arman have good QI, dont like O2.5 but O1.5 is good imo.

 

[matthew55]

Thoughts on Cirkunov/ Turman fight? Mischa seems chinny but does Turman have any power? I also don't recall seeing Turman grapple much but my memory isn't great with him. I'd think Mischa's physicality may overwhelm him down there.

 

[Shelter]

Thoughts on Cirkunov/ Turman fight? Mischa seems chinny but does Turman have any power? I also don't recall seeing Turman grapple much but my memory isn't great with him. I'd think Mischa's physicality may overwhelm him down there.

Cirkunov by decision at +450 on Bet365 surprised me

 

[guesswhoseback]

Thoughts on Cirkunov/ Turman fight? Mischa seems chinny but does Turman have any power? I also don't recall seeing Turman grapple much but my memory isn't great with him. I'd think Mischa's physicality may overwhelm him down there.

Cirk EZ

 

[lefontes]

Thoughts on Cirkunov/ Turman fight? Mischa seems chinny but does Turman have any power? I also don't recall seeing Turman grapple much but my memory isn't great with him. I'd think Mischa's physicality may overwhelm him down there.

Turman training with Glover and Poatan. I dont trust in both guys. Sus chin, good grapling (Turman is black belt bjj ), 50 50 striking. Im pass on this fight.

 

[svmr_db]

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Ugh, what a gut wrenching loss to the card

 

[svmr_db]

Perez vs Martinez now at 145 not 135

 

[matthew55]

Ugh, what a gut wrenching loss to the card

I actually really liked Goldy via sub in this one but ya probably would've been a snoozer

 

[Stat_Collector]

Man, I hammered Alvarez/Moises ITD last time at + odds. I also hit it versus Yak and Duffy. Alvarez has only been to decision once 21 fights. I think he's realized his strength is that he needs to go for a finish. I know Tsarukyan is a decision machine, but Alvarez would be smart to not let him fight that style - win or lose. Because bottom line is that if it goes to decision, it's not the fight Alvarez wants. I could definitely see this finishing early.

I watched Frivola crack Arman in the 1st round and wobbled him a bit. I think Alavarez is going to fk him up. I have Joel and the other Arman kickboxer guy in a parlay with a bunch of mismatch fights for 100$ i think its going to hit.

 

[svmr_db]

I watched Frivola crack Arman in the second round and wobbled him a bit. I think Alavarez is going to fk him up. I have Joel and the other Arman kickboxer guy in a parlay with a bunch of mismatch fights for 100$ i think its going to hit.

Yeah I'm pretty high on Arman but if there's one guy outside the top 10 that can finish him it's Alvarez, he's freaky huge for lightweight + has a big reach advantage. What he did to Moises was vicious.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah I'm pretty high on Arman but if there's one guy outside the top 10 that can finish him it's Alvarez, he's freaky huge for lightweight + has a big reach advantage. What he did to Moises was vicious.

here is the screenshot, it was a slight wobble, but what was very telling was his reaction to swing a sloppy lead hook after , he looked shook and panicked after Matt connected. I can see Joel catching him and doing the same thing he did to Moises.







I think what Joel has for him that is close to the rear hook are his rear elbows and straight right that can get him the finish. i think that Armen looks fatigue when he goes the distance, he is going to be more fatigued wrestling a giant like Joel.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

here is the screenshot, it was a slight wobble, but what was very telling was his reaction to swing a sloppy lead hook after , he looked shook and panicked after Matt connected. I can see Joel catching him and doing the same thing he did to Moises.

View attachment 910021



View attachment 910022

I think what Joel has for him that is close to the rear hook are his rear elbows and straight right that can get him the finish. i think that Armen looks fatigue when he goes the distance, he is going to be more fatigued wrestling a giant like Joel.

Alvarez is very ez to wrestle because he's a shit wrestler. Even a bum like Belluardo can lay on top of him entire round. He has 0% TDD and loves staying on his back fishing for submissions and that's much less taxing on Armen's cardio compared to having to shoot 10+ takedowns due to an opponent constantly trying to scramble or get back up to their feet. Anytime Armen happens to get hurt in this matchup, unlike Moises, he will have a safety net in the form of free takedowns. IMO, Alvarez is very finish or bust so I'd rather just play his ITD if I were playing him because from a minutes round winning perspective there's no shot he will win on the cards if this goes 15.

 

['Suga Daddy']

Alvarez is very ez to wrestle because he's a shit wrestler. Even a bum like Belluardo can lay on top of him entire round. He has 0% TDD and loves staying on his back fishing for submissions and that's much less taxing on Armen's cardio compared to having to shoot 10+ takedowns due to an opponent constantly trying to scramble or get back up to their feet. Anytime Armen happens to get hurt in this matchup, unlike Moises, he will have a safety net in the form of free takedowns. IMO, Alvarez is very finish or bust so I'd rather just play his ITD if I were playing him because from a minutes round winning perspective there's no shot he will win on the cards if this goes 15.

I agree but think there’s little value on Alvarez ITD compared to his moneyline

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Perez vs Martinez now at 145 not 135

Wow

Martinez loves that I bet

Dude always kills himself to make 135

 

[lefontes]

Perez request fight on FW. Hes have bad weigh cut imo, Martinez should be heavy favorite. Im put lil more on Martinez ML and Martinez itd

 

[Stat_Collector]

Alvarez is very ez to wrestle because he's a shit wrestler. Even a bum like Belluardo can lay on top of him entire round. He has 0% TDD and loves staying on his back fishing for submissions and that's much less taxing on Armen's cardio compared to having to shoot 10+ takedowns due to an opponent constantly trying to scramble or get back up to their feet. Anytime Armen happens to get hurt in this matchup, unlike Moises, he will have a safety net in the form of free takedowns. IMO, Alvarez is very finish or bust so I'd rather just play his ITD if I were playing him because from a minutes round winning perspective there's no shot he will win on the cards if this goes 15.

yet he has finished everyone who took him down eventually, we'll see how good Armen sub defense holds. I'm treating this like a lotto play, i have my main favorites for the night , but a small sprinkle on an underdog 19-2 with a 100% finish rate is worth a crack. I'm 50/50 , but the value play here is Joel .

 

[Bakayoko]

Some Random thougths:
Cirkunov-Turman:Turman is a legit black belt,he's got good jits but I think Misha is a bit above that and wins the grappling battle.Wonder will Turman accept it or tend to keep it standing.He has more power than Jotko but lacks Jotko's tehnical skills,Cirkunov should take this,ofcourse the chin question is there but near evens is a good price.
Nunes-Pascual:Saw a bit of Pascual and she looks level below Nunes.Don't get why the price on Nunes jumped though...
Arman-Alvarez:Was contemplating playing Alvarez at opening odds but decided to pass,also passing on Tsarukyan ML aldo it has grown.I see Arman winning a DEC Here probably by taking Alvarez down and controling him,the price is ok.Also,over 1,5 with a little hedge on Alvarez R1 KO is fine.
Makachev-Green: passing on ML,but Islam sub I think happens 80% of time here and though I missed initial higher price still satisfied with 1,75.
Over 1,5 at 1,50 now is to low,hard to tell but if I needed to guess I would say second or third round sub.
Rodrigues-Petrosyan:Was high initally on Rodrigues,still believe he has it and bet him but lower than i thought,gives me a bit Crute vs Hill vibes when one fighter has clear ground advantage but the question is will he exploit it.Robocop SUB at 6,00 is a good play also.

 

[lefontes]

Some Random thougths:
Cirkunov-Turman:Turman is a legit black belt,he's got good jits but I think Misha is a bit above that and wins the grappling battle.Wonder will Turman accept it or tend to keep it standing.He has more power than Jotko but lacks Jotko's tehnical skills,Cirkunov should take this,ofcourse the chin question is there but near evens is a good price.
Nunes-Pascual:Saw a bit of Pascual and she looks level below Nunes.Don't get why the price on Nunes jumped though...
Arman-Alvarez:Was contemplating playing Alvarez at opening odds but decided to pass,also passing on Tsarukyan ML aldo it has grown.I see Arman winning a DEC Here probably by taking Alvarez down and controling him,the price is ok.Also,over 1,5 with a little hedge on Alvarez R1 KO is fine.
Makachev-Green: passing on ML,but Islam sub I think happens 80% of time here and though I missed initial higher price still satisfied with 1,75.
Over 1,5 at 1,50 now is to low,hard to tell but if I needed to guess I would say second or third round sub.
Rodrigues-Petrosyan:Was high initally on Rodrigues,still believe he has it and bet him but lower than i thought,gives me a bit Crute vs Hill vibes when one fighter has clear ground advantage but the question is will he exploit it.Robocop SUB at 6,00 is a good play also.

Great Price on O1.5 Tsarukyan x Alvarez on Bet365 @1.72, This is steal.
In others bookies this over are around 1.60