UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs Namajunas, March 23, 7 PM ET

[Thesnake101]

Decided to get a thread going because there's a few lines I'm interested in.



Fight Card
Betting Odds

What I like:

I've seen Quarantillo at -140. Zalal is coming in on short-notice and I was never sold on him, think Billy's pace and wrestling would break him down even with a full camp.
Parkin at -160. Usman reacts poorly to being hit, defense sucks and output isn't there and while Parkin perhaps shouldn't have won his last one, I think he showed enough for me to think he can overcome Usman's strength and outwork him.
Miles Johns at evens. Admittedly this could bite me in the ass since Miles sometimes looks like shit, but I don't see why he can't wrestle-box his way to a decision. Size shouldn't even be that big of an issue if Katona managed to overcome it, though I think Miles is a replacement so maybe his gas tank falters.

Lines I'm a bit surprised by:

Holobaugh as a dog. Obviously Ogden got robbed of a win in his last one by a stupid referee, and we saw Motta then derail an undefeated lanklet, but I get the feeling Kurt could win due to his aggression. Ogden seems to thrive in fights where he can control the pace and has an edge in terms of technique against his opponents, but I don't know if that will be there for him against Holobaugh. Kurt's age is the only thing I don't like here.
Igor da Silva at +140. Both undefeated brazilians so I thought odds would be closer, maybe even lean towards Igor since he got a finish, but idk much about Lima.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Got Dariya at 1.72 but that line has gone now.

Dog action I'm considering is Pajuelo, Usman and Severino.

 

[RobBrownMMA]

Just one more week till we're out of the APEX...

 

[guesswhoseback]

Hoping for a bounce back event

Lima-ko2
Parkin-dec
Rendon-dec
Nguyen-dec
Johns-dec
Ramos-ko2
Hollobaugh-sub2
Arjuelo-dec
Zalal-ko1
Talbott-dec
Dobson-dec
Williams-dec
Rinas+dec

 

[Georges Hefner]

I like Saiman quite a lot here. Talbott doesnt have the striking and takedown defense to counter. This kid isnt ufc level, hes not ready for this big step up.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Aj Dobson should get it done. Edmen has one round cardio, and hes very chinny and shopworn. Dobson has very good defense i dont see him getting cracked

 

[Thesnake101]

Aj Dobson should get it done. Edmen has one round cardio, and hes very chinny and shopworn. Dobson has very good defense i dont see him getting cracked

It's a pass for me. AJ showed the same type of slowing down against Malkoun and then overcorrected by not doing much against Petrosyan.

The win over Nchukwi was much needed, but Tafon was one of the worst signings in recent memory imo. You've got busted prospect with a bad gas tank on one side and a very green guy with dodgy fight IQ on the other.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Is Edmen even that busted? A lot of people would go 0-4 against Brunson, Hermansson, Imavov and Fluffy.

 

[Thesnake101]

Is Edmen even that busted? A lot of people would go 0-4 against Brunson, Hermansson, Imavov and Fluffy.

It's not who he lost to but how he lost to them, showed his cardio is mediocre and he'll wilt under pressure.

Also that Tavares is his only good win. Lungiambula, Marshman, Byrd and Stewart don't look like good wins no more. Dobson is closer to that ilk though, which is why I see him as a dog.

 

[magpie878]

Is Edmen even that busted? A lot of people would go 0-4 against Brunson, Hermansson, Imavov and Fluffy.

Ah, I remember having multiple larger bets near +300 (and one over that I believe), on Brunson that fight. Edmen wilted miserably as the huge favorite. Glorious.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Decided to get a thread going because there's a few lines I'm interested in.

View attachment 1035074

Fight Card
Betting Odds

What I like:

I've seen Quarantillo at -140. Zalal is coming in on short-notice and I was never sold on him, think Billy's pace and wrestling would break him down even with a full camp.
Parkin at -160. Usman reacts poorly to being hit, defense sucks and output isn't there and while Parkin perhaps shouldn't have won his last one, I think he showed enough for me to think he can overcome Usman's strength and outwork him.
Miles Johns at evens. Admittedly this could bite me in the ass since Miles sometimes looks like shit, but I don't see why he can't wrestle-box his way to a decision. Size shouldn't even be that big of an issue if Katona managed to overcome it, though I think Miles is a replacement so maybe his gas tank falters.

Lines I'm a bit surprised by:

Holobaugh as a dog. Obviously Ogden got robbed of a win in his last one by a stupid referee, and we saw Motta then derail an undefeated lanklet, but I get the feeling Kurt could win due to his aggression. Ogden seems to thrive in fights where he can control the pace and has an edge in terms of technique against his opponents, but I don't know if that will be there for him against Holobaugh. Kurt's age is the only thing I don't like here.
Igor da Silva at +140. Both undefeated brazilians so I thought odds would be closer, maybe even lean towards Igor since he got a finish, but idk much about Lima.

I like Billy Q also here but man I just dont know.

It's a pass for me. AJ showed the same type of slowing down against Malkoun and then overcorrected by not doing much against Petrosyan.

The win over Nchukwi was much needed, but Tafon was one of the worst signings in recent memory imo. You've got busted prospect with a bad gas tank on one side and a very green guy with dodgy fight IQ on the other.

I know Aj Dobson isnt a world beater but he’s improving and his grappling is getting a lot better. He barely takes any damage. Edmen is only 26, but in fight years he’s pushing 40. Father time came early it seems.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Got Dariya at 1.72 but that line has gone now.

I'm surprised the line is so close. Dariya may have the best 1-2 in WMMA and is fighting a woman who pushes her punches. Theres going to be a huge speed advantage as well for Zheleznyakova.

I wouldn't be surprised if she knocked Rendon out in the first round.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I was thinking AJ was a good spot against Edmen, but after rewatching their last 3 fightst I changed my mind. Edmen is not a good fighter and despite being 1-4 in his last fights I feel like he is somewhat overrated which is strange.
But his biggest weakness has been cardio and AJ just doesn't push enough of a pace.
He is low volume and not very dangerous, so I think the fight will be a quite slow paced and Edmen should have both speed and power advantage in that case. I think Edmen wins this by decision.

 

[burge13]

Ribas +220 is crazy imo. Shouldn't be more than +130ish

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Ribas +220 is crazy imo. Shouldn't be more than +130ish

Agree, but at the same time Rose should win this pretty easy if she doesn't have a mental breakdown.

But i'm not laying -300 on crazy ass Rose

 

[EndlessCritic]

How is ogden not -200 minimum? His win over Zellhuber has aged very well. He got robbed of a win against Motta.

 

[mkess101]

How is ogden not -200 minimum? His win over Zellhuber has aged very well. He got robbed of a win against Motta.

Probably because look at the dudes Holobough has fought recently. 3 losses prior to his win over Hubbard were to Moises, Burgos, and Barcelos. Don't think Ogden beats any of them.

Don't get me wrong, I'm picking Ogden I think but odds seem about right with him as a small fave.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Probably because look at the dudes Holobough has fought recently. 3 losses prior to his win over Hubbard were to Moises, Burgos, and Barcelos. Don't think Ogden beats any of them.

Don't get me wrong, I'm picking Ogden I think but odds seem about right with him as a small fave.

Ogden 100% beats Barcelos today lol.

Maybe I'm just still salty because Holobaugh lost to Siler. Lost way too much money on that fight.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Agree Ogden odds are about right. Holobaugh is good on his day.

 

[EndlessCritic]

totally unrelated... jake paul is -165 right now... no way he doesn't close -300... right?