UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs Namajunas, March 23, 7 PM ET

[JC615]

totally unrelated... jake paul is -165 right now... no way he doesn't close -300... right?

It will be an exhibition so bet the draw.

 

[mkess101]

Ogden 100% beats Barcelos today lol.

Maybe I'm just still salty because Holobaugh lost to Siler. Lost way too much money on that fight.

Today yeah, not 2018 Barcelos though. That's the one that beat Holobough.

 

[Siver!]

Is Edmen even that busted? A lot of people would go 0-4 against Brunson, Hermansson, Imavov and Fluffy.

I don't know if he's busted, but he could probably lose a decision to a punch bag.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

I expect 1.20 on Nguyen.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

totally unrelated... jake paul is -165 right now... no way he doesn't close -300... right?

I have 3U on Jake at -163, should be free money unless there are some locker room shenanigans going on.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Took a 0.25U shot on Rose by Sub @+1400.

I think Rose is clearly the better fighter here and she should win this fight more often than not. I think sub is probably the least likely method to win for Rose, but she is pretty good on the ground and she has 5 submission wins.
I can see a number of scenarios how Rose subs Ribas. I think she could hurt her on the feet and then subs her, I can also see a situation where Rose initiate the grappling and catches her in a scramble or late in championship rounds Ribas i bloodied up and tired and makes a mistake.

Ribas has never been subbed and she is probably the better straight grappler, but at +1400 I think a little sprinkle could be worth it.

 

[Thesnake101]

What's the deal with Andre Lima's height? Sherdog has him listed at 5'3, UFCstats has him at 5'7 and in one of his LFA fights he was listed at 5'9 despite being noticeably shorter than his 5'6 opponent.

@Hellowhosthat Have you noticed this when looking at his fights? We've got a flyweight Shane Carwin running around. If he is much shorter than Igor then I feel better about getting his +150 odds.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

What's the deal with Andre Lima's height? Sherdog has him listed at 5'3, UFCstats has him at 5'7 and in one of his LFA fights he was listed at 5'9 despite being noticeably shorter than his 5'6 opponent.

@Hellowhosthat Have you noticed this when looking at his fights? We've got a flyweight Shane Carwin running around. If he is much shorter than Igor then I feel better about getting his +150 odds.

I've never noticed him being especially short tbh.

 

[Thesnake101]

I've never noticed him being especially short tbh.

I don't think he's short for a flyweight, but he didn't seem 5'7 either. Thought it's an interesting discrepancy, especially the LFA one.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

If you're taking Dobson, I reckon you're a square

 

[guesswhoseback]

totally unrelated... jake paul is -165 right now... no way he doesn't close -300... right?

Do you know if the fight is a stupid exhibition or is it a legit sanctioned fight?

 

[guesswhoseback]

I have 3U on Jake at -163, should be free money unless there are some locker room shenanigans going on.

Apparently it's an exhibition lol so stupid

 

[Jasper_RB81]

1U on Darya Zheleznyakova Win -3.5p over Montserrat Rendon at +140.

This is a huge mismatch in my opinion. I really regret not taping this much earlier. Darya is the much much better fighter and I expect her to steam roll Rendon here. Darya has good stand up, she's aggressive and she is much younger.
Rendon is just slow, plodding and at age 35 she is not making improvements. She has zero finishing power so Darya should not be afraid to throw down with her.
There is risk that Rendon can get Darya to the ground and lay on top of her and win that way, but I think Darya should win this pretty easy and possibly finish Rendon.

I would have rather played the ML opener which was great value, maybe still value on the ML to be honest.
The -3.5p though is a way to limit the exposure a bit.

 

[EndlessCritic]

If you're taking Dobson, I reckon you're a square

I'm on Shahbazyan and I disagree with this. Shahbazyan has had a disastrous UFC career, and I can't fault anyone for fading him in the +200 range.

 

[EndlessCritic]

1U on Darya Zheleznyakova Win -3.5p over Montserrat Rendon at +140.

This is a huge mismatch in my opinion. I really regret not taping this much earlier. Darya is the much much better fighter and I expect her to steam roll Rendon here. Darya has good stand up, she's aggressive and she is much younger.
Rendon is just slow, plodding and at age 35 she is not making improvements. She has zero finishing power so Darya should not be afraid to throw down with her.
There is risk that Rendon can get Darya to the ground and lay on top of her and win that way, but I think Darya should win this pretty easy and possibly finish Rendon.

I would have rather played the ML opener which was great value, maybe still value on the ML to be honest.
The -3.5p though is a way to limit the exposure a bit.

Any time a 2-1 favorite is +odds on the -3.5 that's serious value territory.

 

[burge13]

Any time a 2-1 favorite is +odds on the -3.5 that's serious value territory.

We dont get these 3.5 markets in Australia. Feel like they'd be a real money maker

 

[burge13]

Also when I said Ribas was big value, I was thinking of Grasso, had them confused somehow. Shows how much attention I pay to wmma lol. No idea on that fight now, pass

 

[ExitLUPin]

I like Kurt Holobaugh a lot as a dog. He's improved a good deal since he was last in UFC, is in his proper class now and almost all his losses were against top talents too. I'm kind of shocked he's +120 TBH. I played him against Hubbard too.

Will be playing his finish line here as well +210.

I like Miles Johns -140 but waiting for props too.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I like Kurt Holobaugh a lot as a dog. He's improved a good deal since he was last in UFC, is in his proper class now and almost all his losses were against top talents too. I'm kind of shocked he's +120 TBH. I played him against Hubbard too.

Will be playing his finish line here as well +210.

I like Miles Johns -140 but waiting for props too.

Miles might be a good live bet, Cody is a fast starter.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

We dont get these 3.5 markets in Australia. Feel like they'd be a real money maker

I don't know about that... you can easily get screwed over by one incompetent judge that can't score a fight. You also get the occasional 3rd round cruising from a fighter that is already up 2 rounds which might kill your play.

But I do play them from time to time if you have big favourites. Like in this fight you go from -210 to +140 for betting on Darya to take all three rounds instead of two rounds. For me, one more round is worth the difference in odds. In this specific case I also think all of the finishing upside is on the Darya side.