UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs Namajunas, March 23, 7 PM ET

[Jasper_RB81]

In the main event I added some small sprinkles. BetWay had quite a lot better odds the rest of the books that I have available.

0,15 Amanda Ribas Win R3 over Rose Namajunas @+2000
0,10 Amanda Ribas Win R4 over Rose Namajunas @+2800
0,10 Amanda Ribas Win R5 over Rose Namajunas @+3300

Even though I think Rose is the better fighter, Ribas is a dog. If Rose is not 100% and this becomes a war I trust Ribas a lot more down the stretch. Rose has also shown from time to time that her cardio might not be the best.

 

[Thesnake101]

Miles might be a good live bet, Cody is a fast starter.

Yeah, from round 2 and onwards Miles should have it I feel.

Just watched Gibson vs Borg and Katona, and it's nuts how the fights' momentum changed like clockwork once the halfway point of rd 2 hit.

Also was shook to see how such a tall BW squandered his height and reach advantage on the feet.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Yeah, from round 2 and onwards Miles should have it I feel.

Just watched Gibson vs Borg and Katona, and it's nuts how the fights' momentum changed like clockwork once the halfway point of rd 2 hit.

Also was shook to see how such a tall BW squandered his height and reach advantage on the feet.

Yeah, he's really good in round 1, just falls apart a bit once he tires.

 

[DC23]

Cameron Saaiman is where the my cash would be heading if I had the financial power to gamble, to which I do not.

 

[Thesnake101]

Cameron Saaiman is where the my cash would be heading if I had the financial power to gamble, to which I do not.

The wife cracked down on you?

 

[Thesnake101]

Yeah, he's really good in round 1, just falls apart a bit once he tires.

I remember watching the Katona fight live and thinking he was just gonna cruise to a win after the first round. Then all of a sudden that stopped.

 

[mkess101]

I don't know about that... you can easily get screwed over by one incompetent judge that can't score a fight. You also get the occasional 3rd round cruising from a fighter that is already up 2 rounds which might kill your play.

But I do play them from time to time if you have big favourites. Like in this fight you go from -210 to +140 for betting on Darya to take all three rounds instead of two rounds. For me, one more round is worth the difference in odds. In this specific case I also think all of the finishing upside is on the Darya side.

The reason a fight like this has that value is that if she dominates 2 rounds and there's one close round, she only needs one judge to give her that close round. Or with 2 relatively close rounds if 2 of the 3 give it to her it cashes. So many ways to cash that moving a -205 to +140 is a no brainer.
30-27, 30-27, 28-29---$
30-27, 29-28, 29-28---$

The delta in value is pretty massive. People will remember when they've been burned but overall in a case like this the spread makes sense for sure.

 

[XociDe]

The narrative that Rose is a total headcase is unfair imo. She shit the bed against Carla 2 years ago but that's it. She was undersized against a very good opponent in her last fight. Ribas has no physical advantages and she punches in slow motion. Rose is a massive favorite imo.

 

[mkess101]

The narrative that Rose is a total headcase is unfair imo. She shit the bed against Carla 2 years ago but that's it. She was undersized against a very good opponent in her last fight. Ribas has no physical advantages and she punches in slow motion. Rose is a massive favorite imo.

To be fair, the "Rose is a headcase" stuff comes mostly from her admitting her own mental health issues and where her head is sometimes at. (Or more accurately was in the past as I guess she's seemed to have found more stability?)

 

[XociDe]

To be fair, the "Rose is a headcase" stuff comes mostly from her admitting her own mental health issues and where her head is sometimes at. (Or more accurately was in the past as I guess she's seemed to have found more stability?)

She is definitely "out there" in her personal life but I see a lot of talk (not just on Sherdog) about not knowing which Rose is going to show up on fight night. I have only seen her look massively off once, and that was the Carla fight. I'll be legit shocked if she doesn't school Ribas.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Talbot/Saiman

Not really getting the critique here for Saiman over Talbot. Talbot has a wrestling base, his struggle with grappling vs Nick is due to facing another amateur wrestler. Saiman doesn't have that grappling base. He got pieced up by Mana and got a bloody nose, don't see a reason why Talbot can't have that same success. Maybe it's not a strong play, but i'm buying the kid is a rising star in the making and we will see him rise to the top. I don' t get Sage Northcutt vibes here.

Williams/Tafa
Seems like a bad matchup for Tafa who falls to the category of hw strikers that don't know how to sprawl. Should be one sided unless Tafa lands a flash ko.

Rose/Ribas

Rose did decent with Manon, this is a step down in competition, Ribas beating that hype job in her last fight doesn't bump her to champion or contender status, Rose striking power should be enough to chin Ribas.

 

[mkess101]

I'm an absolute moron LMAO. My guy PR had to clue me in that I got Montserrat Rendon mixed up with Montserrat Ruiz. I had no idea that was such a common woman's name.

So my PP and UD plays have a decent amount of me backing this Darya chick to fade a girl that she's not even fighting. Hopefully Rendon is as bad as Ruiz...

 

[JC615]

I'm an absolute moron LMAO. My guy PR had to clue me in that I got Montserrat Rendon mixed up with Montserrat Ruiz. I had no idea that was such a common woman's name.

So my PP and UD plays have a decent amount of me backing this Darya chick to fade a girl that she's not even fighting. Hopefully Rendon is as bad as Ruiz...

You're not the only one who thought this was Ruiz fighting with a newly-married surname . . .

 

[Georges Hefner]

If you're taking Dobson, I reckon you're a square

Damn lol is he really that bad?

 

[Georges Hefner]

I dont get the Payton hype. I think he’s gonna get his shit rocked bad. His hype reminds me of Gaziev and Dulgarian, 2 fighters who were favorites earlier this month. 2 undefeated fighters from DWCS who had an impressive win in their debuts against cans. Going up against more proven and better fighters.

 

[Thesnake101]

I dont get the Payton hype. I think he’s gonna get his shit rocked bad. His hype reminds me of Gaziev and Dulgarian, 2 fighters who were favorites earlier this month. 2 undefeated fighters from DWCS who had an impressive win in their debuts against cans. Going up against more proven and better fighters.

His output and size looks good, but Cameron is the first good striker he's fought. Aguirre was a regional can crusher who's shining grace in the UFC was not getting finished by Argueta, and Reyes Cortez wasn't much better.

Much like you I'm skeptical of him until he makes it work against someone with a pulse.

 

[Georges Hefner]

His output and size looks good, but Cameron is the first good striker he's fought. Aguirre was a regional can crusher who's shining grace in the UFC was not getting finished by Argueta, and Reyes Cortez wasn't much better.

Much like you I'm skeptical of him until he makes it work against someone with a pulse.

Cortez Jr actually was piecing him up and gassed because of it. Same with Aguirre. He looks too raw and undeveloped to be in the UFC. Its the elite fighting organization for a reason

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I'm an absolute moron LMAO. My guy PR had to clue me in that I got Montserrat Rendon mixed up with Montserrat Ruiz. I had no idea that was such a common woman's name.

So my PP and UD plays have a decent amount of me backing this Darya chick to fade a girl that she's not even fighting. Hopefully Rendon is as bad as Ruiz...

Well lucky for you they are equally bad i would say Probably a pick em if they ever fought.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Cortez Jr actually was piecing him up and gassed because of it. Same with Aguirre. He looks too raw and undeveloped to be in the UFC. Its the elite fighting organization for a reason

Saaiman could win this by mixing in both striking and wrestling and just outvolume and outpace him over 3 rounds. I could see a scenario where Saaiman frustrates Talbott by not settling on one style of fighting. With that said, I lean Talbott to get the W here. I think the power is on the Talbott side and if Saaiman doesn't have success with wrestling then I can see Talbott landing the bigger shots.
I also feel like Saaiman might be just a little bit over rated. He is a great talent and has a bright future, but he has fought pretty poor competition in the UFC. He has won, but not like he dominates his opponents. The C-Rod fight was close but at the same time not really, in the end there wasn't any questions on who won the fight. Also Saaiman gets hit a lot and Talbott seems to hit hard.

Great fight, I would like both to win. Lean is Talbott.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Hopefully Rendon is as bad as Ruiz...

They pretty much have the exact opposite problem imo.

Rendon is huge (5"8 and very jacked) without many discernible skills, while Ruiz has good skills everywhere but is tiny and giving up athleticism to most opponents.