UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs Namajunas, March 23, 7 PM ET

[mkess101]

They pretty much have the exact opposite problem imo.

Rendon is huge (5"8 and very jacked) without many discernible skills, while Ruiz has good skills everywhere but is tiny and giving up athleticism to most opponents.

Ruiz held Vlismas down almost the whole fight with that head/arm throw to headlock. Then got destroyed by Amorim on the mat (no shame there) in her next fight. I don't remember much of her striking other than that I wasn't overly impressed from what I saw. She did have toughness and grit, she got the dogshit beat out of her by Amorim and wouldn't quit.

I watched Rendon last night after I was told I had the wrong chick. Yeah, she's not good. No fluidity, looks kinda robotic. Head always in one place to be hit. I watched Darya vs Dixon and Dariya was piecing her up standing. Got taken down, tried an armbar (her transition wasn't bad, Dixon I think is just very good on the ground). Once Dixon passed and got to mount it was a wrap.

If Dariya can keep it standing she's gonna tee off. Just needs to stay off her back.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I dont get the Payton hype. I think he’s gonna get his shit rocked bad. His hype reminds me of Gaziev and Dulgarian, 2 fighters who were favorites earlier this month. 2 undefeated fighters from DWCS who had an impressive win in their debuts against cans. Going up against more proven and better fighters.

wasn’t that Cameron pre C-Rod?

 

[Georges Hefner]

wasn’t that Cameron pre C-Rod?

Yea but he was injured going to that fight (ruptured eardrum). And it was up a weight class against a 145er. Hes much older and wiser now. And more motivated, he now has a champ in his gym

 

[Georges Hefner]

Saaiman could win this by mixing in both striking and wrestling and just outvolume and outpace him over 3 rounds. I could see a scenario where Saaiman frustrates Talbott by not settling on one style of fighting. With that said, I lean Talbott to get the W here. I think the power is on the Talbott side and if Saaiman doesn't have success with wrestling then I can see Talbott landing the bigger shots.
I also feel like Saaiman might be just a little bit over rated. He is a great talent and has a bright future, but he has fought pretty poor competition in the UFC. He has won, but not like he dominates his opponents. The C-Rod fight was close but at the same time not really, in the end there wasn't any questions on who won the fight. Also Saaiman gets hit a lot and Talbott seems to hit hard.

Great fight, I would like both to win. Lean is Talbott.

What you think of the size difference? I feel like ufc lied about Talbott height. Or is Cameron wearing shoes?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Igor is my favorite dog bet, a sleeper i think everyone is over looking


Better boxing combos
good chin
better grappler
high finisher

hits a few marks for dog+

Kurt Holobaugh
7 kos > 0
near = subs
Fought longer

tuf tends to improve guys and he’s on a streak. 37 a problem but ogden is 34 so not that wide.

 

[Thesnake101]

Igor is my favorite dog bet, a sleeper i think everyone is over looking


Better boxing combos
good chin
better grappler
high finisher

hits a few marks for dog+

Kurt Holobaugh
7 kos > 0
near = subs
Fought longer

tuf tends to improve guys and he’s on a streak. 37 a problem but ogden is 34 so not that wide.

Those are the two dogs I like the most, plus Billy Q now that Zalal got a huge influx of cash for some reason.

Feel like all three will push the pace and stay ahead of their opponents.

After seeing the size difference between Mo and Parkin I feel more confident in Mick. Neither guy is coming off a good performance, but a bigger HW that trains with Aspinall should beat someone as robotic as Mo imo.

 

[rille31]

The Zalal action is giving me Krause vibes

 

[mkess101]

The Zalal action is giving me Krause vibes

No way Billy Q is that kinda guy though, is he?

 

[Thesnake101]

No way Billy Q is that kinda guy though, is he?

It's impossible to know, but I doubt he'd put his whole career on the line when he's coming off a win.

Minner made sense since he was a regional overachiever about to wash out of the UFC, but Quarantillo is in a safe spot and seems to have some years left in him.

 

[Oblivian]

Not a great card overall, but I like it for betting. I feel pretty good with the value on Da Silva, Gibson, Billy Q, Saaiman, and Ribas.

 

[Dooze]

Love Billy What a pick em, would be willing to bet him at 1.40 I reckon so great odds there to be able to get him at evens.

Think I also like Miles @ 1.70, Edmen @ 1.53 and Usman as an underdog.

I don't really rate Cody Gibson. He's aggressive but that's about it, in every other aspect I think Miles should be a level above him.

Edmen has arguably been exposed, but all of his losses have been against high level guys and although it's not a good look being 1-4, I don't think theres particularly any shame in those losses or indicate much other than he's not currently at the level of a top 10-15 fighter. Dobson is a big step down in that regard and I think that will show here. I'd be surprised if Dobson is still in the UFC in 3/5 fights time and realistically I can never imagine him getting close to cracking the top 40, let alone the top 20 or top 10. If Edmen loses this I think it would be more due to him being way more shot than anyone could have imagined, rather than Dobson becoming world class. I don't think Dobson is UFC level - although it's worth noting that my standard of UFC level is a lot higher than the UFCs and is more on par with the UFC a decade or two ago where you generally had to be a solid prospect or already a high level fighter then be signed.

Usman - I don't particularly rate him well but I think he's more athletic than Parkin and should have better wrestling than him. Usman is obviously never going to hit the levels of his brother but I think he's a bit underrated due to that constant comparison. I'm expecting a slow, low action grinding fight and think he can get the better of that. I don't think he's particularly bad on the feet either. - certainly nothing special but I don't think Parkin dramatically outclasses him there or anywhere really. More just an underdog play than a huge lean or anything though.

 

[yellowbean]

Love Billy What a pick em, would be willing to bet him at 1.40 I reckon so great odds there to be able to get him at evens.

Think I also like Miles @ 1.70, Edmen @ 1.53 and Usman as an underdog.

I don't really rate Cody Gibson. He's aggressive but that's about it, in every other aspect I think Miles should be a level above him.

Edmen has arguably been exposed, but all of his losses have been against high level guys and although it's not a good look being 1-4, I don't think theres particularly any shame in those losses or indicate much other than he's not currently at the level of a top 10-15 fighter. Dobson is a big step down in that regard and I think that will show here. I'd be surprised if Dobson is still in the UFC in 3/5 fights time and realistically I can never imagine him getting close to cracking the top 40, let alone the top 20 or top 10. If Edmen loses this I think it would be more due to him being way more shot than anyone could have imagined, rather than Dobson becoming world class. I don't think Dobson is UFC level - although it's worth noting that my standard of UFC level is a lot higher than the UFCs and is more on par with the UFC a decade or two ago where you generally had to be a solid prospect or already a high level fighter then be signed.

Usman - I don't particularly rate him well but I think he's more athletic than Parkin and should have better wrestling than him. Usman is obviously never going to hit the levels of his brother but I think he's a bit underrated due to that constant comparison. I'm expecting a slow, low action grinding fight and think he can get the better of that. I don't think he's particularly bad on the feet either. - certainly nothing special but I don't think Parkin dramatically outclasses him there or anywhere really. More just an underdog play than a huge lean or anything though.

agree with most of it,but the problem i notice in the miles and Gibson fight is that miles has low output,on the other hand Gibson is very active with his hands, if miles can't make big impact every round,he may lose a decision

 

[yellowbean]

Love Billy What a pick em, would be willing to bet him at 1.40 I reckon so great odds there to be able to get him at evens.

Think I also like Miles @ 1.70, Edmen @ 1.53 and Usman as an underdog.

I don't really rate Cody Gibson. He's aggressive but that's about it, in every other aspect I think Miles should be a level above him.

Edmen has arguably been exposed, but all of his losses have been against high level guys and although it's not a good look being 1-4, I don't think theres particularly any shame in those losses or indicate much other than he's not currently at the level of a top 10-15 fighter. Dobson is a big step down in that regard and I think that will show here. I'd be surprised if Dobson is still in the UFC in 3/5 fights time and realistically I can never imagine him getting close to cracking the top 40, let alone the top 20 or top 10. If Edmen loses this I think it would be more due to him being way more shot than anyone could have imagined, rather than Dobson becoming world class. I don't think Dobson is UFC level - although it's worth noting that my standard of UFC level is a lot higher than the UFCs and is more on par with the UFC a decade or two ago where you generally had to be a solid prospect or already a high level fighter then be signed.

Usman - I don't particularly rate him well but I think he's more athletic than Parkin and should have better wrestling than him. Usman is obviously never going to hit the levels of his brother but I think he's a bit underrated due to that constant comparison. I'm expecting a slow, low action grinding fight and think he can get the better of that. I don't think he's particularly bad on the feet either. - certainly nothing special but I don't think Parkin dramatically outclasses him there or anywhere really. More just an underdog play than a huge lean or anything though.

check out your DM bro

 

[sonhow]

Everything seems to suggest a bit of a mismatch in Dariya-Rendon. Ive seen countless Dariya by stoppage picks -reasons being big difference in technical skills and size that matches Rendon's..yet the stoppage line looks pretty playable? I guess it comes down to them being women and Rendon potentially being super tough. But who knows?
Actually if it turns out to be mismatch like some suggest Id say it's pretty damn likely going to be a stoppage win for the Russian. I think a mismatch is more likely to result in stoppage at wbw. Dont have data here, going off pure memory but I cant recall last time where someone was much better than the opponent and couldn't get a finish at that weight class.

I guess Amanda Nunes vs Irene Aldana but Irene at least had reached a contender level status so It wasnt a complete mismatch on paper.
Also Dariya did go to dec with Liana Jojua....doesnt exactly rise confidence...

 

[Don Sharpe]

Fernando Padilla (15-5) Vs Luis Pajuelo (8-1)

Fernando Padilla burst onto the UFC scene with a nasty knockout of Julian Erosa last April 2023.

He failed to follow it up in his sophomore appearance losing a decision to Kyle Nelson.

Fernando is proven finisher with 13 of his 15 wins coming by way of stoppage. He also is extremely tough having never been finished himself.

He will hold a 2 inch height advantage and is also the younger man by 2 years.

Luis Pajuelo is a man I’ve been waiting to see make his UFC debut after a dominant first round finish of Robbie Ring last summer on the Contender Series.

He is also a proven finisher with 7 of his 8 wins coming via finish and his two losses were split decision losses. An argument could be made that he has never truly lost a clear fight.

From what I have seen Pajuelo is an absolute dog and will not stop pushing the pace the entire fight. He will need to be careful in this matchup as Fernando certainly poses danger.

There is a reason this fight kicks off the Main Card and I expect it to be an absolute war. However in my prediction Pajuelo will prevail and pick up another stoppage win. There is considerable value on Pajuelo by KO at +350 but I will just play it safe and just take the moneyline.

Pick: Luis Pajuelo ML (+140)

 

[Rhood]

AJ DOBSON........................
I don't know how the fuck that guy is still in the UFC.


Convince me how he beats Edmen.
I feel like Edmen only loses this fight if he beats himself first.
That boy just needs some confidence. Anyone got any Vitamin D to lend him?

 

[Stat_Collector]

AJ DOBSON........................
I don't know how the fuck that guy is still in the UFC.


Convince me how he beats Edmen.
I feel like Edmen only loses this fight if he beats himself first.
That boy just needs some confidence. Anyone got any Vitamin D to lend him?

Aj looks better in every fight. From his dwcs fight he was a wild swinger, then to going 3 rounds with Armen, he looked composed and clean. Edmen has lost majority by ground and pound, but that is still his chin getting damaged. Aj i would classify as a heavy handed fighter, not the most power, but it's there. A clean hook to the jaw, and Edmen could crumble, i don't see why not, Aj has enough snap and athleticism to knock him out.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Igor is my favorite dog bet, a sleeper i think everyone is over looking


Better boxing combos
good chin
better grappler
high finisher

hits a few marks for dog+

Kurt Holobaugh
7 kos > 0
near = subs
Fought longer

tuf tends to improve guys and he’s on a streak. 37 a problem but ogden is 34 so not that wide.

 

[Oblivian]

Not a great card overall, but I like it for betting. I feel pretty good with the value on Da Silva, Gibson, Billy Q, Saaiman, and Ribas.

 

[XociDe]

lmao

We've all been there