UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev

[2020Tracked]

Song vs Marlon

The first round can be very competitive while Song finds his range and closes the distance and Marlon is at his fastest and most focused. After the first I feel it changes very quickly and pressure quickly mounts from there. Over 1.5 could be a much bigger sweat and risky bet than fight starts round 2 for example. I think Song ML is good, starts round 2, Marlon KO 1 at a huge number maybe playable but I wouldn't be amazed at it going 3 rounds potentially, depending on how the fight is paced - Starts round 2 and Song ML would be my favourite bets.

 

[2020Tracked]

Rountree vs Roberson

This is difficult, both have big fault and both are prone to making mistakes/mental lapses/general bad fight IQ. Rountree can crack mentally, Roberson can make bad judgement calls. If they strike for 3 at a mid pace I feel it goes all 3 and it comes down to who landed the cleaner shots/more eye catching shots, but if Roberson is smarter than before or gameplans correctly he will try and mix in the wrestling and grappling. Even if it's stuffed, or doesn't lead to any control time just putting it in there to keep Rountree guessing, and keep him working will add up and tire Rountree out.

Over 1.5 should be set at close to pick'em and I think the over will be playable, Rountree decision at +600 or more, Roberson ITD all look good. If I had to pick a side I'd take Roberson.

 

[2020Tracked]

Dober vs McKinney

If I had to lay five units it would be with Dober, the proven commodity, but if I had to take a stab on a prop it's McKinney ITD, it's just that kind of fight.

Over/under will be 1.5 rounds, and even that seems like a gamble either way. Dober KO is possibly worth a look, McKinney sub too. Fight doesn't GTD seems obvious but will be super juiced... I think McKinney starts quick, makes a good attempt at landing a huge kick or shooting low and deep and if the gamble doesn't pay off he gets pressured back down the stretch, walked down and eventually TKO'ed.

Hmmm us Dober ML value? It may look that way, the veteran, the more proven fighter, but McKinney is a wild card.

I think betting McKinney round 1 and seeing if the trend sticks I'd an option, but looking for a live bet entry is probably the way to go.

 

[Pappetta]

Cabetti/Moutinho

I think Canetti is better everywhere apart from durability and a will to keep going in the fight. If Moutinho survives round 1 without getting knocked out he has every chance to takeover in 2 and 3, as long as his durability/chin doesn't randomly just fall off a cliff, and it will have to one day soon. The only way I can see to play this is Cabtetti round 1 KO, and then play Moutinho round 2/3 pre bet, and hope for a chance to live be either way as the fight plays out. If I had to play a side I would likely take Moutinho on youth and durability and more will to win.

Analysis on point but Guido's surname not even once

 

[Stat_Collector]

Rountree vs Roberson

This is difficult, both have big fault and both are prone to making mistakes/mental lapses/general bad fight IQ. Rountree can crack mentally, Roberson can make bad judgement calls. If they strike for 3 at a mid pace I feel it goes all 3 and it comes down to who landed the cleaner shots/more eye catching shots, but if Roberson is smarter than before or gameplans correctly he will try and mix in the wrestling and grappling. Even if it's stuffed, or doesn't lead to any control time just putting it in there to keep Rountree guessing, and keep him working will add up and tire Rountree out.

Over 1.5 should be set at close to pick'em and I think the over will be playable, Rountree decision at +600 or more, Roberson ITD all look good. If I had to pick a side I'd take Roberson.

Robertson standup is underrated. he has a mean right hook, and he has more tools to work with, i think Roundtree should be a 150+ underdog not a near even odds.

 

[DC23]

Sabina to beat Miranda
AJ Fletcher to win via TKO.

Double is 14/1.

Can’t see AJ winning but it’s time to travel to value city.

 

[ballsackarino]

Marlon R1 10.00 fuck it. Pretty decent price for what is the majority of his win condition. Think it was priced at 11.00 against Merab and that was decent value considering how the first round went.

 

[The Disasters]

Alex Caceres ML +218(small) Caceres has that sneaky veteran style that's so hard to overcome. If this gets to the 2nd round then I think Caceres takes over with grappling, clinch, and his weird-ass striking. A lot of this is feel, and my being shocked at the line.

Terrance McKinney ML +138(big) Dober is so easy to take down that McKinney should do it with ease. This fight was slightly in McKinney's favor on my line. I don't think he's the greatest finisher ever like I'm seeing on social media, but I think he's going to be a contender.

AJ Fletcher ML +175(Medium) Semelsberger backing up isn't very good at all. Coming forward he's a wild man. I won't be surprised at all if I mark this one an L the 1st minute of the fight. I think it should be much closer to -120/100 instead of -205/175 though.

Basharat by Sub +350(very small) I'm not very impressed with Jones, and I'm not going to lay chalk on Basharat, so this was the only way to monetize that opinion.

Sabina Mazo ML +260(very small) Maverick seems to be allergic to winning. I've never seen someone do less damage from the top position. She should win easily using wrestling and strength, but I've said that before. This is 100% a fade of Maverick.

Tafon Nchukwi ML +150(medium) I'm very impressed with his fight-iq, especially at a young age. He paces himself and mixes up his striking and wrestling. The older Russians tend to gas pretty bad, and I think Nchukwi has a strong chance to survive the first, then take over for a 29-28 win. I also bet by decision very small.

 

[The Disasters]

You are dead to me

and, I’ve taken note to all who liked his post.

You are on my list

As one of my gambling buddies likes to says, I wouldn't lay -200 on the sun coming up!

Much less on a couple of decision machines with these judges. I made it -135/115.

 

[Card]

Everyone made weight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

If yadong loses I'm gonna be out of 2k worth of parlays

 

[The Disasters]

If yadong loses I'm gonna be out of 2k worth of parlays

I don't use big chalk like that in parlays, but I really don't see how he loses here. Even though I'm rooting for Moraes. If anything, I think this is an easier fight for Yadong Song than his last two.

 

[TrueAscension]

Dober vs McKinney

If I had to lay five units it would be with Dober, the proven commodity, but if I had to take a stab on a prop it's McKinney ITD, it's just that kind of fight.

Over/under will be 1.5 rounds, and even that seems like a gamble either way. Dober KO is possibly worth a look, McKinney sub too. Fight doesn't GTD seems obvious but will be super juiced... I think McKinney starts quick, makes a good attempt at landing a huge kick or shooting low and deep and if the gamble doesn't pay off he gets pressured back down the stretch, walked down and eventually TKO'ed.

Hmmm us Dober ML value? It may look that way, the veteran, the more proven fighter, but McKinney is a wild card.

I think betting McKinney round 1 and seeing if the trend sticks I'd an option, but looking for a live bet entry is probably the way to go.

Coming from someone who maxed McMinney in his last outing, I’d be very weary about taking him here early. Dober has TKOd people in the last couple years but he used to be a decision machine. Best bet on this fight is the over 1.5 imo.

 

[jrleclerc88]

Song vs Marlon

The first round can be very competitive while Song finds his range and closes the distance and Marlon is at his fastest and most focused. After the first I feel it changes very quickly and pressure quickly mounts from there. Over 1.5 could be a much bigger sweat and risky bet than fight starts round 2 for example. I think Song ML is good, starts round 2, Marlon KO 1 at a huge number maybe playable but I wouldn't be amazed at it going 3 rounds potentially, depending on how the fight is paced - Starts round 2 and Song ML would be my favourite bets.

Yah both of your favored bets are -250 -130 lmao... very insightful

 

[SolarSeiko]

Analysis on point but Guido's surname not even once

The Cabtetti got me. Tito Ortiz analysis going on.

 

[BigSteve]

Does anyone know what's going to happen with a line error? I hit the Dober U2.5 at 1.83 when no other props have opened.
Now that props are open they only have the U1.5, cash out is suspended and I think they are trying to change my bet to 1.5 but it still says 2.5

 

[Bakayoko]

Does anyone know what's going to happen with a line error? I hit the Dober U2.5 at 1.83 when no other props have opened.
Now that props are open they only have the U1.5, cash out is suspended and I think they are trying to change my bet to 1.5 but it still says 2.5

It happened once to me on the Gane/Lewis fight on betway where they placed double chance method of victory KO/TKO/DQ or DEC at 3,75(switched it wrongly for SUB or DEC) and they just voided the bet like nothing happened.Hope yours still goes through.

 

[BigSteve]

It happened once to me on the Gane/Lewis fight on betway where they placed double chance method of victory KO/TKO/DQ or DEC at 3,75(switched it wrongly for SUB or DEC) and they just voided the bet like nothing happened.Hope yours still goes through.

Yea they havent voided it yet, I got an option to bet it again at 2.00 which is 1.5 odds. I have another 2u on the normal line incase they void that one or count it as U1.5, but would suck for fight to go DEC and they count it as a loss lol.

 

[Bakayoko]

Yea they havent voided it yet, I got an option to bet it again at 2.00 which is 1.5 odds. I have another 2u on the normal line incase they void that one or count it as U1.5, but would suck for fight to go DEC and they count it as a loss lol.

Yeah,they should off done something already,fking bookies

 

[2020Tracked]

Yah both of your favored bets are -250 -130 lmao... very insightful

What's wrong with -250 and -130 plays? You absolutely useless shit pile goon