2c:
Mazo/Maverick: Big dog or pass here. Maverick has not done anything to live up to her odds in the UFC, even her win over Jojua started with her eating a bunch of shots with her face. I mentioned this last time she was a decent fav over Erin, and then passed on the bet and had massive regret. Mazo is nothing special herself, but she is huge and has a 5 inch reach advantage. If this fight ends up standing for the majority, maybe Maverick doesn't shoot or Mazo somehow stuffs the takedowns, the odds end up looking way too wide. Mazo has only been taken down with caught kicks and Mavericks takedowns have been a bit average in the UFC. She also takes too long to shoot in most fights. She could come in here with a wrestling singlet due to being on a losing streak, but she would need a round 1 SUB to live up to these odds. Mazo just needs one of those jammy headkicks or to do some work in the clinch with her knees for 2 rounds against a tiny opponent. This is a big stay away for me unless it gets even crazier. Otherwise, I could live bet Mazo late if it's 1-1, she usually comes on strong.
Jones/Basharat: Watched all of Basharats fights, liked him inicially. I think Jones has been getting away with the freakiest run in the UFC while being a pretty average fighter on the regionals. His game can be summed up to a lead left hook, a leg kick and cage clinching. He has big power but is very low volume, hence why he has so many split decisions on regional tape against low lvl opponents. His wrestling is not the best either which is why he spends so much time against the cage. Herb had no urgency to seperate him against Said for 80% of the fight, and 2 judges still had Said 2-0 up going into the third. Basharat is going to have a big volume edge, he mixes it up well and actually has a ton of subs and does a lot of his work on the ground. In the last fight before Contender, he showed some takedown defence and work off the cage. It would be better to see him up against higher competition, but from what I have seen he has run through everyone and had no trouble anywhere. He fights with his hands low but has very good distance managment. I decided to pass for now because I feel the line will go towards Jones, he has that mistique about him and people are discussing him as a solid dog. I think he needs a KO here, which I guess he could get.
JJ/Robertson: Hit JJ small here early and also sprinkled that DEC line which is insane for a womens fight and a DEC machine like JJ. A lil worry here with Robertson consistnatly going for takedowns, I can see it being very voaltile fight where JJ stuffs majority of the takedowns but gets hit with one at the end of each round and potentially loses it. I liked what I seen from JJ against Suarez back when she was 22. She got ragdolled all of first round, had her back taken, was in a darce and a guiltoine and she toughed it out and ended the round standing. Her sprawl was good too but Suarez is way too strong, Robertson is nowhere near in physicality. She also has horrendous and telegraphed entries. It took her like 3 goes to get a TD on Zombie Girl half way through the round. JJ is now a brown belt and does everything correct on the ground to stay out of trouble. I can potentially see her doing a Court McGee and getting her own takedowns and riding it out in Gillians guard. She did it to Viana and Demapolous, two jits girls whos only win condition was a guard sub. I also really like the O2.5 at almost pick em odds.
Silva/Perreira: I like Bruno here, I will wait for the line to get a lil wider. I wasen't impressed with Perreira when I taped him for his debut and I have kept that opinion. He is essentially KO or bust here. His cardio is not great, and he is a bit slow and low volume. He didnt do much in his debut other than standing up once taken down and got held up against the cage for 5 minutes. In his first fight where he got subed, he was getting cracked against the cage with his guard up while completley gassed in the first. This was years ago but he is now 34 and I don't see an improvement in cardio specially if Bruno shoots early. Bruno targets the body as well.He will shoot, he shoots on Russian grapplers on the regionals let alone here where he will have a big advantage. He also has an iron chin, he has never been KOed and I have never seen him hurt. He has great cardio and carries his power late. Its an easy dog or pass for me here, and Perreira KO an easy hedge.
Dober/McKinney: What a volatile fight. McKiiney hasent changed his style in the UFC, still coming out looking to finish early. He gives me flake vibes, in that Woodson fight he was reacting weird to getting touched up and also gassed quick. I haven't seen him get out of the first since, but when he strikes he is still very wild and hittable. Also getting finsihed in the first by Minner is not a good sign, Minner can't sub anyone that is a decent level. Dober is pretty realiable to hurt you in that first round, hits like a truck and comes out aggresive. I don't like how he relises on his chin though, even though he is durable he has been cracked by Riddel and droped twice by OAM. He also loves getting subbed, specially with a rear naked which is McKinneys fav submision. I think this looks a bit like the Hernandez fight, McKinney will get early takedowns, his wrestling looks high level. But the later it goes I can see Dober stalking a gassed McKinney and bombing him later. I have some U2.5 at 1.83 which was an error so I hope they don't void my bet, but I think even at 1.50 is solid value for a fight that might end in the first. I botched the Dober line thinking it was going to get juiced, I think this line is a lil more accurate now.
