The way I see it a parlay is just another bet. If you think the legs in the parlay have value it doesnt matter how big or little of a favorite or underdog they are. The main advantage of parlays is just to exceed betting limits and to bet on contemporary odds simultaneously.
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev
- Thread starter Card
- Start date
The way I see it a parlay is just another bet. If you think the legs in the parlay have value it doesnt matter how big or little of a favorite or underdog they are. The main advantage of parlays is just to exceed betting limits and to bet on contemporary odds simultaneously.
- Joined
- Jul 29, 2008
- Messages
- 6,771
- Reaction score
- 5,029
Miranda Maverick by KO at +1200 might be worth a sprinkle. I can see her getting a tko ground and pound stoppage against Mazo or another elbow cut stoppage. Mazo doesn't actually seem to take damage well so this KO line is a bit perplexing.
- Joined
- May 11, 2008
- Messages
- 4,722
- Reaction score
- 3,722
Soriano never really used his wrestling offensively. I think Dalcha has put more focus to his grappling to atleast keep himself from the ground. He was a judo national champ in his country.
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2020
- Messages
- 6,234
- Reaction score
- 4,471
I hit it
- Joined
- Sep 15, 2014
- Messages
- 18,124
- Reaction score
- 10,820
Any particular reason you don't bet a rounded out number? Just curious.
- Joined
- Aug 7, 2018
- Messages
- 2,413
- Reaction score
- 3,543
Haven't caught one of McKinneys fights since they always finish so damn fast. I've seen lots of guys on here betting on him since he's joined the UFC. Sparking Frevola in under 10 seconds is impressive but doesn't show me much. Dober is a huge step up in competition plus on short notice. He's one of the hardest hitters in the division with decent wrestling and tons of experience at a higher level (9-7 UFC) with KO wins over Haqparast and Hernandez and going life and death with Riddell. Could someone fill me in on McKinney and his style, I see lots of people are pretty high on him.
- Joined
- May 11, 2008
- Messages
- 4,722
- Reaction score
- 3,722
i think he wants his winning to be rounded out.
- Joined
- May 11, 2008
- Messages
- 4,722
- Reaction score
- 3,722
he has a wrestling background that can spell trouble for Dober, and his high finishrate. im avoiding this one because of dober's time in the ufc, it's a dangerous fight for McKinney. Im not sure if he is a solid contender or just a mid level guy.
- Joined
- May 30, 2019
- Messages
- 55,091
- Reaction score
- 120,782
Extremely aggressive, very athletic. Sometimes gets off balance because he throws too hard at times. I'm steering clear of him as he's open to be hit sometimes and Drew can crack and is defensively sound enough to be around in the later rounds.
- Joined
- May 30, 2019
- Messages
- 55,091
- Reaction score
- 120,782
I haven't ever seen Dalcha do too well against freestyle wrestling, his judo isn't going to mean a lot when Brundage is constantly diving for his legs. I can see him holding it off for a while but I suspect he's going to start gassing.
If you're playing Brundage you have to play it decision no? Ain't no way he is going to finish Dalcha.
- Joined
- May 30, 2019
- Messages
- 55,091
- Reaction score
- 120,782
Not sure, Brundage does pursue finishes and if Dalcha has a heavy wrestler on top of him for long periods I don't think it's inconceivable that he could give something up when he's tired.
- Joined
- Jul 29, 2008
- Messages
- 6,771
- Reaction score
- 5,029
i just bet whatever numbers get my win to a full number …. 176 for 400 looks better then 175 for 398 etc …. Don’t ask me - just habit I guess lol
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2019
- Messages
- 3,339
- Reaction score
- 4,581
2c lets go:
Tafon/Azamat: Azamat is going to have a huge speed advantage here, Tafon is slow as shit. He is a bit green still, his wins in the UFC are 2 flakes that hate pressure and he didn't even get them out of there. He also has no head movement although he is pretty durable. He has a steady and consistent pace over 3 rounds, but he gassed badly in the third against Park when he faced some adversity. Getting 10-8'ed by Park is not a good sign. Azamat has a good explosive double against the cage, if he hits a few of those he can slow Tafon the same way Park did late. The concerns are Tafon having a huge reach advantage, and how Azamats cardio looks if he doesn't KO Tafon. Tafon will keep pressuring, he always does, and the most we have seen of Azamat is that Guto fight where he didn't even go a full 10 min. He was wrestling mostly in that one, was huffing and puffing a bit but still had the cardio to wrestle for all of the second. He fought again the same night and won by KO. I was fading Azamat up a weight class against Vanderaa but that was a different fight. He was going to be giving up 60 pounds against a durable HW, I was relying on Jared to Homer Simpson him. Tafon might need to crack him with something or just continue to walk forward, not get KOed and stuff all the takedowns or get up if taken down. I can see him winning a battle of attrition, but he will have to go through a lot of shit and his own cardio is not the greatest. At this point, I have 2u on Azamat at his early line, not sure how much I will keep, but he has a lot of advantages.
Guido/Moutinho: I see money coming in on Moutinho. I can see the angle, he is durable enough to survive late, and at that point, it does seem like he will take over with his Homer Simpson style. Good luck though, one of the worst guys in UFC at juicy odds. Guido throws 110% all the time. He can even outwrestle Moutinho early, he has a big athletism advantage even at his age. He had a close split with Mana which is decent. Moutinho won't be as low volume as Mana, but he will be 10 times more hittable. Big pass fight for me, not laying money on a 42-year-old flake Guido or on Moutinho at fav odds.
Cody/Dalcha: Another pass fight. Honestly, I didn't finish taping this fight, didn't have it in me. I can never bet on Dalcha with his skillset and cardio unless he is a huge dog. Cody I bet on small in his debut and he lost that fight with a bonehead decision in round two. He is a solid wrestler with improving standup, but ultimately I still think he is a bit green. I bet Markus Perez over Dalcha as a decent dog and he would have won that fight if he wasn't a moron. I can see this being a low output affair, with some grinding up against the cage and both guys stuffing takedowns. Honestly not too sure, might re-tape at a later date when I have more motivation.
Jackson/Kirk: Jackson is going to bring the pressure here like usual, we might have a good grappling battle. Jacksons wrestling is a bit average, but he is great at getting to the back and sticks to fighters like glue. Kirk is quite slick himself, he dominated Billy in the first before gassing and got a slick triangle from guard over Croom. He almost got the same move on Amirkhani but he is super hard to sub. Kirk was actually great at stuffing Makwans takedowns in the first, showing good balance and technique. But once he got a bit tired, he resorted to going for guillotines and playing guard. I feel like that close triangle is what won him the fight, although I thought he still lost even though I live bet him and so did like 9 out of 10 media members. Jackson won't slow down like Makwan and will keep a high pace for 3. He also has underrated straight punches, he has sparked like 3 fighters on regionals with one strike in the first round. He usually hurts some of them before locking in the sub. Kirk has the Walmart Connor style of standup but with not as much power or precision. He needs space to pick his shots and even then he lost a 3 round split to karate Silva. There might be some sweaty moments early as Jackson is always open to being cracked with his aggression, as well as a guard sub early. Jackson is a veteran but he has been guard subbed by Rony Jason in his last stint in the UFC, albeit 7 years ago. I see it as a 29-28 for Jackson in a battle of attrition, and the public seems to agree with me odds have narrowed all the way down to a pick-em.
AJ/Semi: Inicial lean was Semi by KO. There isn't much tape of AJ out there, and from what I have seen he seems a bit green. The biggest flaw I noticed is his lack of head movement when getting backed up. He gets tagged often and his only avenue out is to shoot a reactive double which he usually hits. The competition level is horrendous as well so getting backed up by jobbers is not a good look. Semi has a massive 8" reach advantage and he really extends when throwing his punches. Both his KOes have been from a straight 1-2 down the pipe. He is also really good at countering, he was countering Khaos' leg kicks all night but that guy has an ungodly chin. AJ loves throwing a naked leg kick. I haven't watched AJ's only pro-dec win since I didn't want to spend $15 on a fight I had a strong feeling I was passing on. Although I did watch his last amateur DEC which is only 5 months before that. He seemed fine cardio wise and the wrestling really saved him there. He is a brown belt, and he is explosive enough to potentially get takedowns on Semi as well who is a big and strong dude. I went deep into this one taping Semis old fights before the UFC, he won a split to a guy who tried to wrestle for 3 rounds, he would stuff a lot of the later takedowns but got hit with a nice reactive shot early. He also got taken down late in the third trying to finish the fight after he got a bit tired, and had a weird guard pull which was concerning. In the fight after he was getting suplexed multiple times by a 4-2 opponent who eventually lost by injury in the second. At this point even though AJ seemed green to me, he is 25 and has a lot of physical gifts. He cracks hard himself and could have a good chin despite reacting suss to punches, Semi couldn't get that bum Minus out of there in 3 rounds. I think Semi is a lil green himself, he is an A+ athlete and has only been a Pro since 2017. At these odds I might have to pass and see what AJ has in his debut.
Tafon/Azamat: Azamat is going to have a huge speed advantage here, Tafon is slow as shit. He is a bit green still, his wins in the UFC are 2 flakes that hate pressure and he didn't even get them out of there. He also has no head movement although he is pretty durable. He has a steady and consistent pace over 3 rounds, but he gassed badly in the third against Park when he faced some adversity. Getting 10-8'ed by Park is not a good sign. Azamat has a good explosive double against the cage, if he hits a few of those he can slow Tafon the same way Park did late. The concerns are Tafon having a huge reach advantage, and how Azamats cardio looks if he doesn't KO Tafon. Tafon will keep pressuring, he always does, and the most we have seen of Azamat is that Guto fight where he didn't even go a full 10 min. He was wrestling mostly in that one, was huffing and puffing a bit but still had the cardio to wrestle for all of the second. He fought again the same night and won by KO. I was fading Azamat up a weight class against Vanderaa but that was a different fight. He was going to be giving up 60 pounds against a durable HW, I was relying on Jared to Homer Simpson him. Tafon might need to crack him with something or just continue to walk forward, not get KOed and stuff all the takedowns or get up if taken down. I can see him winning a battle of attrition, but he will have to go through a lot of shit and his own cardio is not the greatest. At this point, I have 2u on Azamat at his early line, not sure how much I will keep, but he has a lot of advantages.
Guido/Moutinho: I see money coming in on Moutinho. I can see the angle, he is durable enough to survive late, and at that point, it does seem like he will take over with his Homer Simpson style. Good luck though, one of the worst guys in UFC at juicy odds. Guido throws 110% all the time. He can even outwrestle Moutinho early, he has a big athletism advantage even at his age. He had a close split with Mana which is decent. Moutinho won't be as low volume as Mana, but he will be 10 times more hittable. Big pass fight for me, not laying money on a 42-year-old flake Guido or on Moutinho at fav odds.
Cody/Dalcha: Another pass fight. Honestly, I didn't finish taping this fight, didn't have it in me. I can never bet on Dalcha with his skillset and cardio unless he is a huge dog. Cody I bet on small in his debut and he lost that fight with a bonehead decision in round two. He is a solid wrestler with improving standup, but ultimately I still think he is a bit green. I bet Markus Perez over Dalcha as a decent dog and he would have won that fight if he wasn't a moron. I can see this being a low output affair, with some grinding up against the cage and both guys stuffing takedowns. Honestly not too sure, might re-tape at a later date when I have more motivation.
Jackson/Kirk: Jackson is going to bring the pressure here like usual, we might have a good grappling battle. Jacksons wrestling is a bit average, but he is great at getting to the back and sticks to fighters like glue. Kirk is quite slick himself, he dominated Billy in the first before gassing and got a slick triangle from guard over Croom. He almost got the same move on Amirkhani but he is super hard to sub. Kirk was actually great at stuffing Makwans takedowns in the first, showing good balance and technique. But once he got a bit tired, he resorted to going for guillotines and playing guard. I feel like that close triangle is what won him the fight, although I thought he still lost even though I live bet him and so did like 9 out of 10 media members. Jackson won't slow down like Makwan and will keep a high pace for 3. He also has underrated straight punches, he has sparked like 3 fighters on regionals with one strike in the first round. He usually hurts some of them before locking in the sub. Kirk has the Walmart Connor style of standup but with not as much power or precision. He needs space to pick his shots and even then he lost a 3 round split to karate Silva. There might be some sweaty moments early as Jackson is always open to being cracked with his aggression, as well as a guard sub early. Jackson is a veteran but he has been guard subbed by Rony Jason in his last stint in the UFC, albeit 7 years ago. I see it as a 29-28 for Jackson in a battle of attrition, and the public seems to agree with me odds have narrowed all the way down to a pick-em.
AJ/Semi: Inicial lean was Semi by KO. There isn't much tape of AJ out there, and from what I have seen he seems a bit green. The biggest flaw I noticed is his lack of head movement when getting backed up. He gets tagged often and his only avenue out is to shoot a reactive double which he usually hits. The competition level is horrendous as well so getting backed up by jobbers is not a good look. Semi has a massive 8" reach advantage and he really extends when throwing his punches. Both his KOes have been from a straight 1-2 down the pipe. He is also really good at countering, he was countering Khaos' leg kicks all night but that guy has an ungodly chin. AJ loves throwing a naked leg kick. I haven't watched AJ's only pro-dec win since I didn't want to spend $15 on a fight I had a strong feeling I was passing on. Although I did watch his last amateur DEC which is only 5 months before that. He seemed fine cardio wise and the wrestling really saved him there. He is a brown belt, and he is explosive enough to potentially get takedowns on Semi as well who is a big and strong dude. I went deep into this one taping Semis old fights before the UFC, he won a split to a guy who tried to wrestle for 3 rounds, he would stuff a lot of the later takedowns but got hit with a nice reactive shot early. He also got taken down late in the third trying to finish the fight after he got a bit tired, and had a weird guard pull which was concerning. In the fight after he was getting suplexed multiple times by a 4-2 opponent who eventually lost by injury in the second. At this point even though AJ seemed green to me, he is 25 and has a lot of physical gifts. He cracks hard himself and could have a good chin despite reacting suss to punches, Semi couldn't get that bum Minus out of there in 3 rounds. I think Semi is a lil green himself, he is an A+ athlete and has only been a Pro since 2017. At these odds I might have to pass and see what AJ has in his debut.
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2020
- Messages
- 1,319
- Reaction score
- 1,114
Sadiq/Bruce Leeroy
Can Alex out maneuver and smart Sadiq for 3 rounds, make him chase and follow rather than tracking him down and cutting him off? I think it's a big ask and I'd be really impressed if Alex pulled it off. I think Sadiq's pressure and power is the right kind of pressure, he's going to slowly but surely start catching Alex out and trapping him and clubbing him hard as Alex tries to exit latterly. There is pretty big physicality and athletic edge for Sadiq too here, and a chance of improvements with a year away from the cage
Sadiq ML, Sadiq KO 2/3. Possibly Alex decision at a huge number as I don't see him hurting Sadiq enough to TKO him or club and sub.
Can Alex out maneuver and smart Sadiq for 3 rounds, make him chase and follow rather than tracking him down and cutting him off? I think it's a big ask and I'd be really impressed if Alex pulled it off. I think Sadiq's pressure and power is the right kind of pressure, he's going to slowly but surely start catching Alex out and trapping him and clubbing him hard as Alex tries to exit latterly. There is pretty big physicality and athletic edge for Sadiq too here, and a chance of improvements with a year away from the cage
Sadiq ML, Sadiq KO 2/3. Possibly Alex decision at a huge number as I don't see him hurting Sadiq enough to TKO him or club and sub.
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2020
- Messages
- 1,319
- Reaction score
- 1,114
Azamat/Tafon
Tough call. Azamat's speed and strike selection are very good but Tafon is a tank and has power of his own. Tafon also has some solid inside low kicks and showed a heavy pressuring clinch game against Mrod, but it's hard to say how transferable that is fight to fight as MRod just accepts the clinch over and over. I think if Azamat is going to be too fast and too accurate it's going to be an early KO/TKO Round 1 as he's going to be his quickest there, but if it goes beyond a round it's possible Azamat can't find the kill shot/Tafon can just take the damage and then starts to work his way into the fight.
Azamat should be looking to mix in the wrestling, he's shown regionally he will shoot or look to work against the fence, and Tafon has shown he is weak on the mat and getting to his feet uses a lot or energy, that said Azamat is mostly an unknown away from round 2, and could gas himself working hard for takedowns that either don't come or don't lead to much control time.
Azamat KO 1 to lead into the fight and see how he approaches it, and then look to live bet Tafon, just not sure if Azamat has the power to KO Tafon - ML lean is Azamat but don't think I like a straight bet.
Tough call. Azamat's speed and strike selection are very good but Tafon is a tank and has power of his own. Tafon also has some solid inside low kicks and showed a heavy pressuring clinch game against Mrod, but it's hard to say how transferable that is fight to fight as MRod just accepts the clinch over and over. I think if Azamat is going to be too fast and too accurate it's going to be an early KO/TKO Round 1 as he's going to be his quickest there, but if it goes beyond a round it's possible Azamat can't find the kill shot/Tafon can just take the damage and then starts to work his way into the fight.
Azamat should be looking to mix in the wrestling, he's shown regionally he will shoot or look to work against the fence, and Tafon has shown he is weak on the mat and getting to his feet uses a lot or energy, that said Azamat is mostly an unknown away from round 2, and could gas himself working hard for takedowns that either don't come or don't lead to much control time.
Azamat KO 1 to lead into the fight and see how he approaches it, and then look to live bet Tafon, just not sure if Azamat has the power to KO Tafon - ML lean is Azamat but don't think I like a straight bet.
- Joined
- May 11, 2008
- Messages
- 4,722
- Reaction score
- 3,722
yeah i did see that fight where he got mounted and gnp four years ago. for some reason i always thought he was undefeated prior to ufc. maybe yall right. i was never planning on playing him, so i'll leave it at that, think i misspoke on this one.
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2020
- Messages
- 1,319
- Reaction score
- 1,114
Kirk/Jackson
Well matched fight, they play into each others games. There is a clear path for Jackson, get Kirk tired grappling and grind him out over the rounds (If not find a sub), but I think Kirk has more options over all and if Jackson is stuffed or not given chance to grind he's naked in there.
Kirk ITD, Kirk KO, Kirk KO1, Jackson round 3/decision, feel playing both sides is an option here.
I bet a unit on Jackson at +130 expecting the line to move on his favour, which it has. Looking like dog Kirk is likely now, if we get + money on Kirk I will switch and take some of him ML
Well matched fight, they play into each others games. There is a clear path for Jackson, get Kirk tired grappling and grind him out over the rounds (If not find a sub), but I think Kirk has more options over all and if Jackson is stuffed or not given chance to grind he's naked in there.
Kirk ITD, Kirk KO, Kirk KO1, Jackson round 3/decision, feel playing both sides is an option here.
I bet a unit on Jackson at +130 expecting the line to move on his favour, which it has. Looking like dog Kirk is likely now, if we get + money on Kirk I will switch and take some of him ML
- Joined
- Nov 16, 2009
- Messages
- 3,859
- Reaction score
- 801
I think people are underrating Kirk based on the Amirkhani fight he took on a week's notice and overrating Damon Jackson for decisioning Charles Rosa, which pretty much any rostered UFC FW can do at this point.
I'll put a small Why Not bet on McKinney by Decision at +800. It took Makhachev until the third round to submit Dober, and as much as McKinney acted disappointed that he didn't get the knockout against Ziam, I think he's smart enough to realize he's going to have better success with the takedowns against Dober rather than the stand up.
I'll put a small Why Not bet on McKinney by Decision at +800. It took Makhachev until the third round to submit Dober, and as much as McKinney acted disappointed that he didn't get the knockout against Ziam, I think he's smart enough to realize he's going to have better success with the takedowns against Dober rather than the stand up.
Latest posts
-
[Ryan Garcia] My levels are so low for someone who took ostarine.- Latest: burningspear
-
